Weight the possible outcomes for Trump (round 3)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Wait, these are even odds straight across? That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Why put any money down on a highly improbably outcome if you're only going to double your money as a result? If we're betting straight odds, I'd put $100 on B, because that's the most likely outcome, and therefore the best value.

Anyway, taking it as you meant it:

A)   Re-election: $25
B)   Lose general election: $60
C)   Lose primary: $0
D)   Doesn’t run again: $5
E)   Impeachment AND removal: $5
F)   25A: $1 (Only because Mike Pence is a sneaky SOB)
G)   Resignation: $3
H)   Death: $1

Note on the death option: Actuarial tables give a 73-year-old man a 3% chance of dying in the next year, but I'm adjusting that downward due to the fact that he has the best medical care on the planet and no known dread diseases.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Death: $15, age has always been an issue.

Age? We have had other former Presidents living into their eighties and nineties and maintaining high levels of activity. Let's put it this way: Carter has a better chance of reaching One-zero-zero than Trump has of reaching four score.

This is a good reference:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

On average, someone his age has a 3% chance of dying in the next 12 months. However, a lot of causes of death are greatly minimized due to his position. He has agents protecting him 24/7. He has doctors who could attend him constantly should a health problem arise. Simply the fact that he has no known serious problems drops that chance below 3%, even if his obesity does raise it a bit.