I think we’re the only posters who currently believe that IA will be more Republican than OH, even if only slightly.
That's because conditions on the ground are a disaster for Trump in Iowa, and they're not so bad in Ohio.
It’s not the word I would use, MI is a disaster for Trump but IA is clearly winnable for him.
MI is a light blue state that is now probably out of reach. IA is a pink state that Trump will probably win, but he's not going to tap dance to victory like people think he will.
In Ohio democrats have bled too many white, working class votes that used to be the backbone of Democratic support there. It's not a safe R state yet, but it now takes a pretty solid Dem win nationwide to pull in Ohio. They're not like Wisconsin, where the overwhelming D trend in Dane County is enough to make up for deficiencies in industrial NE Wisconsin and rural SW Wisconsin. Without strong support in NE Ohio, Democrats are sunk there.
