When did you feel Hillary Clinton was in Danger of losing

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

When the vote dump from the FL panhandle came in with several hundred thousand Trump votes. In a split second it went from "we got this, and I can go to bed early," to "Oh, crap."

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Honestly, I was very, very nervous the moment the Comey memo came out, especially given Trump had completely bounced back from Access Hollywood in the polls. That's when I knew a Trump victory was a distinct possibility, much greater than the absurd 2% chance NYT gave him.

But of course, on Atlas I was just a bed-wetting concern troll, lol.

I turned on the returns that evening hoping that this nightmare would be over quickly. That my concerns were unfounded, that the PredictIt markets were on point.

Then the Florida panhandle vote dump came in for Trump.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm surprised no one's mentioned the NH midnight town votes, which went to Trump. Most people here dismissed them.

NH was not in the freiwal

Did anyone mention Vigo County? Not scrolling through this entire thread, sorry.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Going back through my posts, it looks like 2006 was when.



Even though the map/opponent/year were wrong I got the election night EV total right.

That's a really impressive coincidence.

Dick Morris might have been insane enough to make a map like that for the 2016 election.

The quaint old days when we were all deluded into thinking Hillary Clinton was still popular in Arkansas.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I think here's another takeaway: in ANY modern Presidential election, if your candidate - in either party - is struggling in both OH and FL, your candidate is "in danger of losing."

FL went from likely Clinton to likely Trump in a split second.  OH, a few minutes later, went from tossup to likely Trump.  If you don't at that point think she's in trouble, you're deluding yourself.  She could have pulled it together with a sweep of PA, MI, and WI, but that was already a 50/50 proposition.

Fast forward to 2020: if FL and OH are looking like tossups or tilting towards Trump at any point, prepare yourself for four more years of the Tweeter in Chief.  A Democrat could win without them, but they have always been fantastic indicators of the mood of the country.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I already wrote in a similar thread I started:

This is when Anderson Cooper explained the Pennsylvania map after 90% of the votes have been counted in that state. Some minutes later he showed us the current Wisconsin map.
That's when I began to accept the thruth... 😰

That was when the hard truth started to set in, but a few hours before: The EXACT moment when history changed.   Clinton had comfortable leads in NC and OH, and it looked like she was on her way to winning FL, too. Suddenly it all came crashing down.