Is Donald Trump already finished?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

For all these reasons, plus the gains Hillary is going to be made when Bernie Sanders throws his support behind her.

This is looking like a 15-point landslide for Clinton (55-40-5).  All Obama '12 states are safe.  NC is lean Clinton.  Battleground states are IN, MO, GA, AZ, MT.  Texas, Dakotas, South Carolina, and Mississippi are within reach but won't be contested by Clinton.

Stuff can happen between now and Election Day, but convincing normal, rational moderate voters to trust Donald Trump with the White House seems like a long-shot.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Looking at the nationwide polls can be tricky, since it's not the popular vote edge that decides the election.

At this point in the cycle the national numbers are a much better predictor of electoral results than individual state polls.  State polls don't really start to matter until September or so.  And if one candidate is leading by more than 5 points nationally, consistently, state polls are irrelevant.  The chance of one candidate losing by more than 2 points in the PV and winning the EV is basically zero.

Right now I'm extremely skeptical of the Pennsylvania polls.  His performance in the Keystone State is probably the one bright spot for Trump.  But he's polling worse in Ohio, and his national numbers don't seem to support Pennsylvania being in play.  I expect this trend to correct itself post-conventions.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Seriously?

I know you hate Donald Trump for whatever reason, MohamedChalid, but five months is an eternity in politics. Hillary! would not be finished right now if she were 5 points down.

How was President Dukakis' first term? President Romney for that matter? And that second Jimmy Carter term?

I swear it's a thread a day on Atlas with this same nonsense.

If Vice President Bush went on record as needing to stop "all those Blacks who are rapists and criminals, like Willie Horton... some of them are good people, of course," made disparaging remarks about Dukakis's eyebrows and Greek heritage, said that NATO was basically useless if the Warsaw Pact wasn't broken up by the end of his first term, called for the dismantling of the Soviet Union, called for a trade war with Japan, and the GOP was fighting to unbind his delegates at the convention, party leaders refused to endorse him, and he had no funding... then that would be an apt comparison.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The R/D split is pretty inelastic. 90% of Republicans don't vote for Democrats and 90% Democrats don't vote for Republicans as a general rule if either of the partisans make it to the voting booth.

Donald Trump is the kind of candidate who could cause significant Republicans to either cross aisles or stay home.  The disdain for him among old-line Republicans is palpable.