The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Let us now try to estimate TRUMP's delegates in the remaining states.
Or is it too early for such an exercise?

I can attempt, using polls, some of them really stale.  Here are states with solid Trump leads and winner take all/most allocations:

March 22:
  Arizona: Winner take all, 58
April 19:
  New York: Winner take most, 95
April 26:
  Maryland: Winner take most, 38
  Pennsylvania: Winner take most, 71 (54 unbound)
May 3:
  Indiana: Winner take most, 57
June 7:
  New Jersey: Winner take all, 51

This is 370 just from six states that will be very, very hard for Trump to lose.

Other states that Trump should have in the bag:

April 26:
  Connecticut: 28
  Rhode Island: 19
  West Virginia: 34
 
Total: 451, which Trump should win almost all of.

States where Trump may be vulnerable to an upset:

March 22:
  Utah: 40
April 5:
  Wisconsin: Winner take most, 42
April 26:
  Delaware: Winner take all, 16
May 10:
  Nebraska: Winner take all, 36
May 17:
  Oregon: 28
May 24:
  Washington: 44
June 7:
  California: Winner take all, 172
  Montana: Winner take all, 27
  New Mexico: 24
  South Dakota: Winner take all, 29

Vulnerable delegates: 458

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Cruz snaring Trump's AZ delegates.

I've been trying to predict how many delegates will easily flock to Cruz after the first ballot.  Right now Cruz has 463ish.  Say he gets a sweep of Wisconsin, and wins Indiana's and California's WTA.  That gets him to 734.  (He'll also have more from other remaining contests, but we won't count them yet).

Here are states without a Trump majority and a strong Cruz contingent, in the South.  I see these flipping to Cruz:

(Delegates not already in Cruz column)
AR: 25
LA: 25
KY: 31
NC: 45

That brings Cruz to 860.

Now add in the non-Cruz delegates in Cruz states if they unify behind him:
TX: 51
OK: 26
KS: 16
WY: 2
ID: 12
ME: 11
IA: 22
AK: 14

Now his total is 1014.

Add missing delegates from Trump-plurality states outside the deep south, if they fall in line:

NV: 24
MI: 42
VA: 41
NH: 20

1141.

Add Arizona, if this story has any merit:

1199.

I have get to consider OR (28), MT (27), SD (29), WA (44), or NM (24), all great chances for Cruz to pick up more delegates before the convention.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Assuming Trump gets only 6 delegates out of Wisconsin, what percentage of the remaining delegates does he need to win from here on out to reach a majority?  Around 60%?

Assuming he wins 6 in WI and gets swept in the rest of CO and WY, he'd need to win 63% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to clinch on pledged delegates alone.

Tough, but doable; would require blowout wins in IN, CA, and NY, or a shock win in MT.

Of course, Trump is going to win some unpledged delegates.  Based on our most recent information, I'm going to project he wins at least 20 unpledged delegates out of Pennsylvania.  Combined with the rest of my projections, that puts him at 1205.  If he can convince a fair chunk of the remainder of the PA delegation, as well as a few insular delegates, he may just be able to eke out a win on the first ballot.

Pennsylvania, Indiana, and California are the keys.

Trump will not win Indiana.  He may have a shot in IN-2, IN-3, or IN-4, if delegates are apportioned by CD.  IN-07 is Kasich Kountry if he's still in the race, and the rest belongs to Cruz.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Assuming Trump gets only 6 delegates out of Wisconsin, what percentage of the remaining delegates does he need to win from here on out to reach a majority?  Around 60%?

Assuming he wins 6 in WI and gets swept in the rest of CO and WY, he'd need to win 63% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to clinch on pledged delegates alone.

Tough, but doable; would require blowout wins in IN, CA, and NY, or a shock win in MT.

Of course, Trump is going to win some unpledged delegates.  Based on our most recent information, I'm going to project he wins at least 20 unpledged delegates out of Pennsylvania.  Combined with the rest of my projections, that puts him at 1205.  If he can convince a fair chunk of the remainder of the PA delegation, as well as a few insular delegates, he may just be able to eke out a win on the first ballot.

Pennsylvania, Indiana, and California are the keys.

Trump will not win Indiana.  He may have a shot in IN-2, IN-3, or IN-4, if delegates are apportioned by CD.  IN-07 is Kasich Kountry if he's still in the race, and the rest belongs to Cruz.

IN-3 is Stutzman territory thus almost safe Cruz. I'm in IN-4 and it's almost as evangelical as 3 thus also Cruz (Cruz's dad is coming to Kokomo Thursday). Kasich will be shut out and Trump will at best get IN-1.

Fort Wayne, Lafayette, and the crumbling RV industry seem like reasonable places for Trump to get support.  I just moved to Indy from Lafayette, and it seems like a Trump-friendly place.

I also spend a lot of time in Valparaiso, but the Region is difficult to read.

In any event, Indiana is not going to be kind to The Donald.