EV Allocation Projection - 2030

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is going to have a very high margin of error, and I'm using 1995 projections (re-interpolated with 2000 actuals) to extrapolate to 2030.  My source:

http://www.census.gov/population/projections/state/stpjpop.txt

Series A is a strict population-based model, whereas Series B is an economic model of growth.  I have no idea what this means specifically, but I made a map based on Series A, on based on Series B, then I averaged the two to produce a composite map:

Series A:


Series B:


Composite:


I'll do this again when more recent projections become available.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Thanks for that. As the electoral geography stands, it doesn't seem to have too negative an impact on the Democrats

Should they retain their grip on the West Coast this will offset their 'losses' in the North-East and Mid-West

The only real joy for the GOP seems to be Florida and Texas

Don't forget Utah.  It will go to 6 in 2010, and possibly 7 by 2030.  Montana will go to 4 in 2010, but may drop back down to 3 (It does this typically).  Idaho might go to 5.  Georgia might go to 16.  Most of these states will probably steal votes from CA, which would be very bad for the Donkey :-).

If the GOP can hang on to the Southwest, they'll pick up anywhere from 3 to 6 EVs from CO, AZ, NV, and NM (which may also trend Dem).

The outlook isn't all that great for the Democrats.  They will need, in the long term, to focus on the Desert Southwest and Oregon.  These are the going to be the swing states that pick up the most EVs.  Not counting Utah (which will be GOP forever), it could be a pickup of as many as 7 EVs.  That will make up for NY, PA, and IL.

Heh.  It just occurred to me how important people like Harry Reid are to the future of the party.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Well, as far as California goes, it just BARELY gained a seat last time, getting the next-to-last seat that was open.  Who know what that'll mean next time, though...

The "Series B" growth rates actually predict CA will drop one seat.  I'm pretty certain, though, that it has picked up enough of the slack to gain a seat in 2010, and probably will gain 2. 

I'll recalculate everything when new projections are released in 2005.  We'll see if 2030 California will be closer to 59 or to 70 EVs.  Those would be reasonable upper and lower bounds.