EV Allocation Projection - 2030

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is going to have a very high margin of error, and I'm using 1995 projections (re-interpolated with 2000 actuals) to extrapolate to 2030.  My source:

http://www.census.gov/population/projections/state/stpjpop.txt

Series A is a strict population-based model, whereas Series B is an economic model of growth.  I have no idea what this means specifically, but I made a map based on Series A, on based on Series B, then I averaged the two to produce a composite map:

Series A:


Series B:


Composite:


I'll do this again when more recent projections become available.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thanks for that. As the electoral geography stands, it doesn't seem to have too negative an impact on the Democrats

Should they retain their grip on the West Coast this will offset their 'losses' in the North-East and Mid-West

The only real joy for the GOP seems to be Florida and Texas

Dave

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Thanks for that. As the electoral geography stands, it doesn't seem to have too negative an impact on the Democrats

Should they retain their grip on the West Coast this will offset their 'losses' in the North-East and Mid-West

The only real joy for the GOP seems to be Florida and Texas

Don't forget Utah.  It will go to 6 in 2010, and possibly 7 by 2030.  Montana will go to 4 in 2010, but may drop back down to 3 (It does this typically).  Idaho might go to 5.  Georgia might go to 16.  Most of these states will probably steal votes from CA, which would be very bad for the Donkey :-).

If the GOP can hang on to the Southwest, they'll pick up anywhere from 3 to 6 EVs from CO, AZ, NV, and NM (which may also trend Dem).

The outlook isn't all that great for the Democrats.  They will need, in the long term, to focus on the Desert Southwest and Oregon.  These are the going to be the swing states that pick up the most EVs.  Not counting Utah (which will be GOP forever), it could be a pickup of as many as 7 EVs.  That will make up for NY, PA, and IL.

Heh.  It just occurred to me how important people like Harry Reid are to the future of the party.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thanks for that. As the electoral geography stands, it doesn't seem to have too negative an impact on the Democrats

Should they retain their grip on the West Coast this will offset their 'losses' in the North-East and Mid-West

The only real joy for the GOP seems to be Florida and Texas

Don't forget Utah.  It will go to 6 in 2010, and possibly 7 by 2030.  Montana will go to 4 in 2010, but may drop back down to 3 (It does this typically).  Idaho might go to 5.  Georgia might go to 16.  Most of these states will probably steal votes from CA, which would be very bad for the Donkey :-).

If the GOP can hang on to the Southwest, they'll pick up anywhere from 3 to 6 EVs from CO, AZ, NV, and NM (which may also trend Dem).

The outlook isn't all that great for the Democrats.  They will need, in the long term, to focus on the Desert Southwest and Oregon.  These are the going to be the swing states that pick up the most EVs.  Not counting Utah (which will be GOP forever), it could be a pickup of as many as 7 EVs.  That will make up for NY, PA, and IL.

Heh.  It just occurred to me how important people like Harry Reid are to the future of the party.

Looks like I've completely forgot about the SW. I saw gains in FL and TX - and losses elsewhere

Dave

[Bogart]

To fill in a gap, this is what I came up with after 2020. Still too CA heavy.

[12th Doctor]

I see less growth in California (maybe even loss).  Growth in NC and GA.  And Minnesota growing too.

[Alcon]

I see less growth in California (maybe even loss).  Growth in NC and GA.  And Minnesota growing too.

Last time I checked, California was still growing significantly, North Carolina and Georgia a bit, and Minnesota stable to slight loss. What do you base this on?

[DaleC76]

Well, as far as California goes, it just BARELY gained a seat last time, getting the next-to-last seat that was open.  Who know what that'll mean next time, though...

2000 CENSUS SURPRISES

[12th Doctor]

I see less growth in California (maybe even loss).  Growth in NC and GA.  And Minnesota growing too.

Last time I checked, California was still growing significantly, North Carolina and Georgia a bit, and Minnesota stable to slight loss. What do you base this on?

As I have said before, population projections are not accurate indicators, esspecially in today's ever mobile world.  I look at several factors as determinants.

Currently, Minnesota is the most economically dynamic state in the country.  I think that we will see significant growth around the Tiwn Cities.  By 2030, I think Minnesota will have 12 EV's.

North Carolina and Georgia are currently benifiting from the movement of large corperations into the south.  Atlanta will grow considerably in the next 25 years, as it is a natural place for businesses to situate.  Look at all the transportation.  North Carolina is also gaining quite a bit.  The Golden Triangle, Winston-Salem and Charlotte will all get larger as the businesses move down there.

I predict Georgia at 18-19 EV's by 2030.

North Carolina with 17-18 EV's.

South Carolina at 10.

California has nearly nearly surpassed it's capacity to expand.  Soon, urban sprawl and environemental concerns will turn away businesses and people.  It will grow, but not at a rate that catches up with the rest of the country.

People will seek areas that are more dynamic and where there is more opportunity to expand a business and personal fortunes and where they can provide safer, more enjoyable lives for their families.  Thus, smaller cities will expand more and the south and some parts of the Midwest, mainly Minnesota will benefit.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Well, as far as California goes, it just BARELY gained a seat last time, getting the next-to-last seat that was open.  Who know what that'll mean next time, though...

The "Series B" growth rates actually predict CA will drop one seat.  I'm pretty certain, though, that it has picked up enough of the slack to gain a seat in 2010, and probably will gain 2. 

I'll recalculate everything when new projections are released in 2005.  We'll see if 2030 California will be closer to 59 or to 70 EVs.  Those would be reasonable upper and lower bounds.

[jimrtex]

Series A is a strict population-based model, whereas Series B is an economic model of growth.  I have no idea what this means specifically, but I made a map based on Series A,

They differ in how they project internal migration.  Series A is based on past internal migration (from 75->76 to 93->94), while Series B is based on employment rates projected by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Projection Methodology

[Josh/Devilman88]

NC and GA will have 17 while NJ will have close to 13 or 14

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

California is beating the national average for growth.
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06000.html

If CA continues this growth, it should add 2-3 seats per decade.

[The Duke]

CA will gain, but not as many as this thing predicts.  I'd say 61 or 62 EVs is realistc, but it won't approach 70 like this thing says.

The New South and the Southwest (particularly Nevada) are underestimated here, methinks.  The rustbelt is going to fall by more than this says and Florida will grow more than this says.

[Bugs]

California is still growing, but several other states are growing as fast or faster.  I don't expect California to gain any more than five EVs by 2030, if that.