Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[ObserverIE]

Red C poll:

Yes 44 No 29 Don't know 26

Party standings:

FG 30 (-)
SF 18 (+1)
FF 17 (-1)
Ind/Others 17 (-1)
Lab 16 (+2)
Green 2 (-1)

Millward Brown/IMS poll:

Yes 37 No 26 Don't know 15 "It depends" 21

[ObserverIE]

Red C poll:

Yes 49 No 33 Don't know 18

(According to news reports, these figures are more selective than previous polls about excluding those unlikely to vote.)

Update: The like-for-like figures with the previous poll are:

Yes 46 (+2) No 36 (+7) Don't know 18 (-8)

although you have to delve deep into the article to discover that.

Party standings (pre-Mahon report):

FG 34 (+4)
SF 18 (-)
FF 16 (-1)
Lab 15 (-1)
Ind/Others 15 (-2)
Green 2 (-)

[ObserverIE]

Fiscal treaty referendum to be held on Thursday, May 31.

[ObserverIE]

Fiscal treaty referendum to be held on Thursday, May 31.

This is the first (and I hope the last) time I support the "no" side in a EU referendum.

Please Irishmen, save Europe from perennial recession !

I'm not sure whether we could achieve that even if we vote No; the treaty still goes ahead as soon as the first twelve members endorse it.

I would suggest that the French electorate have more power in this regard, but that's just me:

[ObserverIE]

Fiscal treaty referendum to be held on Thursday, May 31.

This is the first (and I hope the last) time I support the "no" side in a EU referendum.

Please Irishmen, save Europe from perennial recession !

Yeah, Ireland should do what it does best: sinking an Eu treaty.

We might have postponed one or two, but I don't think we've ever sunk one; the only ones to achieve that were your southern and northern neighbours (with the EU constitution).

[ObserverIE]

Another RedC poll taken more recently this week, with the same (adjusted) figures:

Yes 49 No 33 Don't Know 18

although this seems to produce a 59-41 breakdown with Don't Knows excluded.

Looking at the bowels of the poll and the crosstabs on party support, Sinn Féin seems to be very low: 61 in the sample as opposed to 127 for Labour. Fine Gael support in the sample also seems to be extremely high by comparison with recent polls.

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI(generally considered the most reliable of the pollsters):

Yes 30 No 23 Don't Know 39 Won't Vote 8

[ObserverIE]

First government campaign pro-treaty video launched:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TZfzAOooEOU

...eh, sorry, I meant this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NyqHTJ3h90U

Easy to get mixed up with those non-threatening regional accents...

[ObserverIE]

First one ought to get fewer people to vote 'no'.

Longford can be a terrifying sight, I suppose. Especially after the nightclub closes on a Saturday night.

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MORI party standings, for what it's worth:

FG 33 (-3)
SF 21 (+6)
Ind/Others 17 (+3)
FF 14 (-1)
Lab 13 (-6)
Green 2 (+1)

Government satisfaction: Yes 23 (-14), No 72 (+17)

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http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0420/1224314969462.html

[ObserverIE]

First government campaign pro-treaty video launched:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TZfzAOooEOU

...eh, sorry, I meant this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NyqHTJ3h90U

Easy to get mixed up with those non-threatening regional accents...

The real ad is actually really creepy for some reason. There's something very "propaganda brain washing" over it.

It's probably the pseudo-Sigur Rós tinkling in the background. Either that or the monotonous succession of half- and quarter-truths being recited in the foreground.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes/Sunday Times

Yes 42 No 27 Don't know 31

Level of understanding of treaty

Very well 6 Quite well 12 To some extent 27 Not particularly well 23 Not at all 32

Party support levels

FG 33 (-)
Ind/Others 18 (+2)
SF 16 (-4)
FF 15 (-1)
Lab 14 (+1)
Green 5 (+3)

[ObserverIE]

Red C for the Sunday Business Post:

Yes 47 (-2) No 35 (+2) Don't know 18 (-)

Party support:

FG 32 (-2)
SF 19 (+1)
FF 17 (+1)
Ind/Others 15 (+2)
Lab 14 (-1)
Green 2 (-1)
SP 1 (-)

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

Yes 53 (+6) No 32 (-3) Don't know 16 (-2)

Party support:

FG 29 (-3)
SF 21 (+2)
FF 19 (+2)
Ind/Others 15 (-)
Lab 13 (-1)
Green 2 (-)
SP 1 (-)

[ObserverIE]

People know that their political class are bullying and threatening them into voting a certain way in the referendum; they fear that they have no alternative; but they resent it.

Unless there's a miraculous economic recovery over the next three years, Fine Gael and Labour will meet the same fate as ND and PASOK. (Although the constitution would allow elections to be postponed until 2018 by a majority vote of parliament. Just sayin')

[ObserverIE]

The thought of a Sinn Fein government is terrifying.

The thought of being bled dry economically and socially by our Teutonic masters and mistresses is considerably more terrifying.

Sinn Féin are not SYRIZA, but they are even less (despite the more fevered imaginings of our political/media class) Chrysi Avgi.

[ObserverIE]

That is one of the strangest polls I've ever seen. SF support up yet treaty support up too? Very strange. Typically in elections the treaty loses popularity, the last contested referendum we had it was at like 80% a week beforehand but still went down 60:40.

As I said:

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[ObserverIE]

BTW, I actually got polled by RedC last night on voting intentions (likelihood to vote, treaty, general election - first and second preference parties, who had I voted for in 2011 and 2007) along with an endless set of questions about phone providers, so I assume there'll be another poll along shortly.

RedC seem to do their calling from England (the North-East judging by the accent of the interviewer). I wonder what subliminal effect that might have on the SF vote in their polls.

[ObserverIE]

Millward Brown/Lansdowne for the Irish Independent:

Yes 37 No 24 Don't know 35 Won't vote 4

[ObserverIE]

The other RedC poll I referred to earlier:

Yes 50 (-3) No 31 (-) Don't know 19 (+3)

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI carried out between Wednesday and today:

Yes 39 (+9) No 30 (+7) Don't Know 22 (-17) Won't Vote 9 (+1)

In other news:

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http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0526/1224316733579.html

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

Yes 49 (-1) No 35 (+4) Don't know 16 (-3)

Millward Brown/Lansdowne for the Sunday Independent:

Yes 42 (+5) No 28 (+4) Don't know 31 (-8)

Behaviours & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

Yes 45 (+3) No 30 (+5) Don't know 25 (-8)

[ObserverIE]

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?

They hate everyone. They could go in with FF technically who are RINOs.

It's probably more accurate to say that the other parties hate them.

[ObserverIE]

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?

SF would go into government with anyone who'd take them.
FG would have the most qualms about it; I think both FF or Labour could make such a deal if needs be.

SF might be more picky (or at least feel that they have the chance to be more picky) next time round.

Their ideal scenario would be that in 2015/16 where things are as bad (or worse) economically as they currently are (despite all the half-truths and general cac tairbh about employment, investment and stability being trotted out in the current referendum campaign) and they are facing three more-or-less equally-discredited "old parties", this would give them the chance to do a SYRIZA and say "we told you so". Their 2008 vote on the bank bailout would be very old news by then. (It's probably old news even now, not that Labour have realised.)

Either you then get a very chastened Labour and still-battered FF as junior partners in a "progressive alliance" (I don't see the ULA as being either able or willing to join a government), or, more likely, you see an "all hands to the tiller" coalition of the old establishment clinging on for dear life in the hope of something turning up.

(Have I mentioned before that I am deeply pessimistic about the future here?)

[ObserverIE]

Party standings:

Millward Brown/Lansdowne (changes in comparison to earlier this month):

FG 36 (+2)
SF 20 (+3)
FF 17 (-)
Ind/Others 13 (-3)
Lab 12 (-3)
Greens 1 (-)
United Left 1 (-)

RedC (changes in comparison with Paddy Power poll last week):

FG 30 (-2)
SF 19 (-1)
FF 18 (-)
Ind/Others/Greens/SP 18 (+1, Greens were at 2 last week)
Lab 15 (+2)

Ipsos/MRBI:

FG 32 (-1)
SF 24 (+3)
FF 17 (+3)
Ind/Others 15 (-2)
Lab 10 (-3)
Greens 2 (-)

Behaviour & Attitudes:

FG 33 (-)
Ind/Others 18 (-)
SF 17 (+1)
FF 16 (+1)
Lab 14 (-)
Greens 2 (-3)

(B&A now seem to be adjusting the bejazes out of their figures - unadjusted it's FG 33, SF 23, FF 17, Ind/Others 14, Lab 11, Greens 1).