Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[ObserverIE]

Second Count:

McENTEE, Helen	FG	9,356	+191	9,547
BYRNE, Thomas	FF	8,002	+104	8,106
O'ROURKE, Darren	SF	3,165	+205	3,370
GILROY, Ben	DDI	1,568	+225	1,793
HOLMES, Eoin	Lab	1,112	+133	1,245

O'Rourke, Gilroy and Holmes eliminated.

[ObserverIE]

Something Labour should think about (but won't):

http://rawsonsmediablog.wordpress.com/2013/03/28/why-labour-faired-so-poorly/

[ObserverIE]

Third Count:

McENTEE, Helen	FG	9,547	+1,926	11,173
BYRNE, Thomas	FF	8,106	+1,476	9,582

McEntee elected without reaching quota.

[ObserverIE]

Labour make a quick exit from the count.

[ObserverIE]

Third Count:

McENTEE, Helen	FG	9,547	+1,926	11,173
BYRNE, Thomas	FF	8,106	+1,476	9,582

McEntee elected without reaching quota.

Almost half the Labour /SF/DUI ballots exhausted.

Insert leukaemia versus brain tumour quote here.

[ObserverIE]

Something Labour should think about (but won't):

http://rawsonsmediablog.wordpress.com/2013/03/28/why-labour-faired-so-poorly/

The comparison of Labour to the Greens is well worth considering.

That's what happens when a social democratic party almost entirely abandons economic policy to its right-wing senior partner in the middle of an economic depression, while going on ad infinitum about social liberal and anti-clerical issues (in a country which still has the highest rate of religious practice in Europe apart from Malta and perhaps Poland).

[ObserverIE]

A bit more about Direct Democracy Ireland and their Freemanish links for Lewis:

http://sinechara.blogspot.ie/2013/04/direct-democracy-ireland-who-are-they.html

Since last posting, a Behaviour & Attitudes poll has put Labour down at 7% (other figures FG 27, Ind/Oth 25, FF 23, SF 15, GP 2); the core Labour vote is now at 4%.

Looking at the internals of the poll, Labour is well on the way to becoming a caricature of itself as a gaggle of upper-middle class urban secularists: its support among middle-class voters is three times its support among lower middle and working-class voters; its support is near collapse level outside Dublin; and what's left of its support is massively disproportionally non-religious by comparison even with Sinn Féin or independent supporters. The politicalreform.ie projection of those results would leave it with 3(!) seats in a hypothetical new Dáil.

To further rub salt in its wounds, one of its three MEPs today resigned from the parliamentary party, while remaining in the party as a whole, and a second MEP is tweeting solidarity with her.

[ObserverIE]

They are such a big fycking embarrassment. Christ. Do they even know that they're a big fycking embarrassment? I have this awful suspicion that...

Vultures absolutely not circling around the current leadership.

They're unlikely to be a big fycking anything after the next (local, European) elections. And their culture-warrior faction will not thank you for mentioning the name of a deity in that outburst.

[ObserverIE]

The promised Messiah is not a deity.

Unless you're a Christian.

<Gets into character and mutters about middle-eastern sky fairies>

[ObserverIE]

From an article in today's Irish Independent, discussing the possible replacement of Gilmore by Joan Burton (not online as far as I can see):

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Eat your heart out, Cleggster.

[ObserverIE]

Is Burton an ex-Sticky as well?

No, she's "old" Labour from the left of the party as was before DL joined.

The Stickies in the parliamentary party are:

Gilmore,
Pat Rabbitte (Minister for Communications/Smartarse Comments/Making Excuses for Fine Gael),
Kathleen Lynch (Junior Health Minister for Sucking Up to Father Stack),
Seán Sherlock (Minister for Technology and Sounding Like a Particularly Sanctimonious Curate),
Eric Byrne (Dublin South Central),
Ciarán Lynch (Cork South Central, brother-in-law of Kathleen),
Anne Ferris (Wicklow).

The Stickies tended in the 80s and 90s to be relatively friendly to FG (they spent their time in the 80s trying to sabotage Labour and loathed both SF - old blood feuds - and FF - too "green"). The old instincts are still in action.

It's a long way from Kim Il-Sung to being FG shock absorbers.

[ObserverIE]

Is Burton an ex-Sticky as well?

No but is unlikely to fire up much support among those who have abandoned the party. For that they will at least need to stop the whole 'we are serious people making hard choices' spiel a la FF in 2009 and to try and find an industrial relations policy which isn't, you know, aimed primarily at their core voting group. That would be a start.

According to polls, she's the most popular/least unpopular member of the current government, probably because she's the only Labour minister who sounds like she vaguely remembers what she's supposed to be standing for. On the downside, she'll be 67 in 2016 and doesn't apparently get on with a lot of the TDs. (Disclaimer: she's an ex-work colleague.)

For a clean break, they would probably need to get out of government and possibly anoint Róisín Shortall as leader to make it explicit that a clear break was being made.