2004 Presidential Election and Beyond: The Giuliani Years (GAME THREAD)

[NHI]

A big thanks to all the partecipants and NHI for this great game!

Enjoyed doing it and hats off to everyone! Great job.

[NHI]

OOC: Are we going to play out the Giuliani Administration or just jump straight to '08?

I'm thinking highlighting the Administration. Then beginning
With September 2007 and start the game. 

So I should get a cabinet together?

If you'd like, yes, that'd be great.

Posted it seconds before you posted this.

Ha ha! Looks great.

[NHI]

Here's how the game will continue (and comments/suggestions are appreciated too)

1. I will announce three more rounds, that will highlight the Giuliani Presidency in years: 2005, 2006 and (partial 2007).

2. The election signups will begin before the third round.

3. 2007 will include up until 2007, which is when the 2008 Election Part will commence.

4. Midterm Results will be posted in the Round including yr. 2006.

-- NHI

[NHI]

Do the rest of us outside the Giuliani administration really have to do anything for the next three rounds, or are we just in the sidelines until signups?

If you plan on running in '08, I think it'd be wise to stay in the media spotlight over the course of the administration. I'd assume that you all respond to events, attack me, support me, or whatnot. But it's up to NHI.

I think staying active until signups begin. Press release, appearances on TV shows etc.

[NHI]

I'm thinking after Biden's concession speech I will begin Round 1: 2005: Giuliani's First Year.
Round will last for 5 days.

[NHI]

Can you post a list of Senators/Governors who were (re)elected IG but not IRL?

2004 Senate Results:

53-46 (1 Independent)
AL: Shelby: 68%-32%
AK: Murkowski: (46.4% Knowles: 45.9% Scott Kohlhaas: 3.4% Other: 4.3%)
AZ: McCain: 68%-25% Libertarian: 4% Green: 2%
AR: Lincoln: 51% Holt: 48%
CA: Boxer: 49% Jones: 33% L: 5.8% G: 3.5%
CO: Salazar: 49% Coors: 45% L: 4% O: 2%
CT: Dodd: 63% Orchuli: 36% L: 1%
FL: Martinez: 47.3% Castor: 46.9% G: 3.3% L: 1.9% (R GAIN)
GA: Isakson: 51% Majette: 45% L: 4%  (R GAIN)
HI: Inouye: 65% Cavasso: 29% L: 4.4% O: 1.6%
ID: Mike Crapo: 100%
IL: Obama: 51% Oberweis: 44% L: 3% G: 2%  (D GAIN)
IN: Bayh: 60% Scott: 36% L: 4%
IA: Grassley: 69% Small: 21% L: 5% G: 4%
KS: Brownback: 62% Jones: 33% L: 4% G: 1%
KY: Mongiardo: 49.3% Bunning: 48.9% O: 1.8% (D-GAIN)
LA: Vitter: 51% John: 29% ---- (R GAIN
MD: Mikulski: 58% Pipkin: 37%  G: 3% L: 1.5%
MO: Bond: 51% Farmer: 46% L: 2% O: 1%
NV: Reid: 59% Ziser: 33% L: 6% G: 3%
NH: Gregg: 64% Haddock: 27% L: 7% G: 2%
NY: Schumer: 62% Mills: 30% G: 5% O: 3%
NC: Bowles: 50% Burr: 48% L: 2% (D GAIN)
ND: Byron Dorgan: 58% Liffrig: 39% O: 3%
OH: Voinovich: 60% Fingerhut: 31% L: 4% G: 5%
OK: Coburn: 59% Carson: 41%
OR: Wyden: 55% King: 33% G: 7% L: 4%
PA: Specter: 50% Hoeffel: 43% L: 4% G: 3%
SC: DeMint: 53% Tenebaum: 45% L: 1% G: 0.5% (R-GAIN)
SD: Thune: 49.9% Daschle: 49.6% L: 0.5%  (R-GAIN)
UT: Bennett: 69% Dem: 26% L: 4% O: 1%
VT: Leahy: 60% McMullen: 28% G: 11% O: 1%
WA: Murray: 50% Nethercutt: 43% L: 5% G: 2%
WI: Feingold: 51% Michels: 45% L: 3% O: 1%

2004 Governors Race:

30-21
DE: Minner: 49% Lee: 43% L: 5% G: 3%
IN: Daniels: 51% Davis: 46% L: 3% (R-GAIN)
MO: Blunt: 48% McCaskill: 47% L: 5% (R-GAIN)
MT: Schweitzer: 45% Brown: 42% L: 12% (D-GAIN)
NH: Lynch: 48.9% Benson: 48.6% (D-GAIN)
NC: Easley: 51% Ballantine: 43% L: 5%
ND: Hoeven: 55% Satrom: 34% L: 12%
UT: Huntsman: 48.0% Matheson: 47.0% L: 5% (R-GAIN)
VT: Douglas: 51% Clavelle: 33% G: 16%
WA: Rossi: 44.9% Gregoire: 44.5% G: 7.7% L: 2.9% (R-GAIN)
WV: Manchin: 57% Warner: 40% O: 3%

 

[NHI]

Are we able to be one more than one person during this period? I have some things I'd like to do with Kucinich for the next few years, but I don't think I want to run as him again and I'm undecided on who to be in 2008.

On a similar note, can I control Ventura as well as Johnson?

Yes and yes.

[NHI]

If everyone's on board we can start the next round by tomorrow? (Giuliani year 1: 2005)

[NHI]

The Giuliani Years: Round 1 (2005)

Rudy Giuliani was elected President of the United States, after a hotly contested presidential election, which fortunately, unlike 2008 did not result in any legal disputes. Giuliani won a decisive victory in a four man race. His closest competitor, Democratic nominee Senator Joe Biden, he outpaced by nearly two points in the popular vote and a commanding 112 vote spread in the electoral vote.

RUDY GIULIANI ELECTED PRESIDENT

√ (R) Rudy Giuliani: 307 (36.7%)

(D) Joe Biden: 195 (34.8%)

(L) Gary Johnson: 21 (14.6%)

(G) Dennis Kucinich: 15 (13.7%)

Other: 0 (0.2%)

While a triumphant victory and certainly a referendum on the four year term of George W. Bush, Giuliani by no stretch of the imagination could claim a 'mandate'. In a four man race he only managed to win nearly 37 percent of the vote and third party candidates, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party Dennis Kucinich could claim their campaigns were not lost causes. Their campaigns were the best showings for a third party in nearly forty years. (Ross Perot had won 19 million votes in 1992, but no electoral votes. Johnson carried four states, and Kucinich two, along with a Congressional District in Maine.)

Aware of the circumstances President-Elect Giuliani readied to take the direction in a moderate, some would call bipartisan direction. Wanting to ease the tensions and polarization, Giuliani took office, in the words of George H.W. Bush to build a kinder and gentler nation.

Approval Rating: Rudy Giuliani (Gallup, January 20, 2005)

Approve: 53%

Disapprove: 39%
Undecided/No Opinion: 8%

Generic Polling: 2008 Election (Gallup_

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 44%

(D) Generic Democrat: 35%

Undecided/Other: 21%

This Round will Close Sunday at 11:59 pm.
Let the Game Begin...Again!

[NHI]

OOC: I'll be posting my Inauguration tonight, and then the 2005 State of the Union tomorrow.

Not a problem

[NHI]

The Giuliani Years: Round 2 (2006)

The Iraq Surge seems to be the main point of President Giuliani's first year in office, while the decision has been largely split between Democrats and Republicans, Giuliani's approval ratings have largely remained intact. Senator Jim DeMint did prove to be a thorn in the President's side over some of his confirmations for his cabinet, and Tim Russert even asked Giuliani if he feared a right-wing primary challenge in 2008, but he dismissed such talk.

The President received a large groundswell of support for his Administration's handling the government's overall dealing with the devastating effects of Hurricane Katrina. At the peak of the crisis Giuliani's approval rating reached a record high of 73 percent, which many analyst believe will benefit not only him, but Republicans in the upcoming midterms.

Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana is starting to make himself known as a possible presidential candidate in 2008, helping out congressional candidates across the country and working to rebuild the party's brand and image after their losses in November of 2004. Early polls give Giuliani a crushing advantage, but Democrats are quick to reply that the election is still three years away.

The midterms are a few months, but at the moment Republicans look to do well, in part do Giuliani's strong approval ratings and his strong and decisive decision over Iraq.

January 20, 2006: Pres. Giuliani Approval Rating

Approve: 56%

Disapprove: 38%
Undecided: 6%

I will be posting the results from the midterm at the start of Round 3.
This Round will Close on Thursday at 11:59 pm est.

[NHI]

Midterm Races to Watch: 2006

1.

Pennsylvania: Tossup

(D) Bob Casey: 48%

(R) Rick Santorum (inc) 43%

2.

Missouri: Lean Republican

(R) Jim Talent (inc) 47%

(D) Claire McCaskill: 43%

3.

Rhode Island: Tossup

(R) Lincoln Chaffee (inc) 46%

(D) Sheldon Whitehouse: 43%

4.

Minnesota: Tossup

(D) Amy Klobuchar: 30%

(I) Jesse Ventura: 29%

(R) Mark Kennedy: 25%

5.

Virginia: Lean Republican

(R) George Allen (inc) 49%

(D) Jim Webb: 40%

6.

Ohio: Tossup

(R) Mike DeWine (inc) 46%

(D) Sherrod Brown: 40%

7.

Montana: Tossup

(R) Conrad Burns (inc) 45%

(D) Jon Tester: 42%

8.

Maryland: Lean Democrat

(D) Ben Cardin: 48%

(R) Michael Steele: 41%

9.

Tennessee: Lean Republican

(R) Bob Corker: 49%

(D) Harold Ford: 43%

10.

New Jersey: Tossup

(R) Thomas Kean: 46%

(D) Bob Menendez: 44%

11.

Connecitcut: Tossup

(R) Alan Schlesinger: 42%

(D) Ned Lamont: 40%

[NHI]

I will have those up by tonight.
And yes, by Wednesday! Not a problem.

[NHI]

Hypothetical General Election Polling: 2008

Giuliani v. Democrats

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (+5)

Hillary Clinton: 45%

Rudy Giuliani: 52% (+7)

John Edwards: 45%

Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+7)

Barack Obama: 44%

Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+8)

Evan Bayh: 43%

Rudy Giuliani: 56% (+17)

Phil Bredesen: 39%

DeMint v. Democrats

John Edwards: 45%

Jim DeMint: 45%

Evan Bayh: 48% (+5)

Jim DeMint: 43%

Barack Obama: 45% (+5)

Jim DeMint: 40%

Hillary Clinton: 48% (+6)

Jim DeMint: 42%

Jim DeMint: 45% (+6)

Phil Bredesen: 39%

Hypothetical Republican Primary: 2008 (DeMint)

Rudy Giuliani: 79%

Jim DeMint: 12%

Undecided: 9%

Hypothetical Republican Primary: 2008 (Smith)

Rudy Giuliani: 89%

Bob Smith: 6%

Undecided: 5%

Hypothetical Republican Primary: 2008 (DeMint & Smith)

Rudy Giuliani: 76%

Jim DeMint: 13%

Bob Smith: 6%
Undecided: 5%

Hypothetical Democratic Primary: 2008

Hillary Clinton: 20%

John Edwards: 18%

Evan Bayh: 14%
Barack Obama: 13%
Phil Bredesen: 7%
Undecided: 28%

Generic Midterm Ballot: 2006

Republican: 48% (+3)

Democrat: 45%

Undecided/Other: 7%

2006 Primaries to Watch:

Alaska Gubernatorial (Republican Primary)

Frank Murkowski: 40%

Sarah Palin: 35%

John Binkley: 17%

Undecided/Other: 8%

Texas Senate (Republican Primary)

Ron Paul: 41%

Bil Ratliff: 38%

Undecided/Other: 21%

New York Gubernatorial (Republican Primary)

Donald Trump: 48%

John Faso: 37%
Undecided/Other: 15%

Pennsylvania Senate (Republican Primary)

Tom Ridge: 46%

Rick Santorum: 44%

Undecided/Other: 10%

Florida Gubernatorial (Republican Primary)

Charlie Crist: 47%

Tom Gallagher: 44%
Undecided/Other: 9%

I will post results to the above primaries on Wednesday; are there any other races people would like posted?

BTW great job everyone, this is continuing to go well!

[NHI]

Could you give us polls for the Alabama Republican gubernatorial primary and for a New York gubernatorial race with Trump as the Republican nominee?

Hypothetical New York Gubernatorial Election: 2006

Eliot Spitzer: 47%

Donald Trump: 43%

Undecided: 10%

Alabama Gubernatorial Primary: 2006

Bob Reilly (inc) 53%

Roy Moore: 40%
Undecided: 7%

[NHI]

OOC: Progress report on the Surge?

In next update, promise!

[NHI]

Trumpmentum! Thanks, NHI!

Not a problem!

[NHI]

Other Gubernatorial Election Polls: 2006

New Hampshire: Solid Democrat

John Lynch: 73%

Jim Coburn: 23%

Massachusetts: Lean Democrat

Deval Patrick: 50%

Kerry Healey: 43%

Maine: Tossup

John Baldacci: 31%

Peter Mills: 30%

(I) Barbara Merrill: 20%
(G) Pat LaMarche: 9%

Minnesota: Lean Republican

Tim Pawlenty: 47%

Mike Hatch: 42%

California: Solid Republican

Arnold Schwarzenegger: 50%

Phil Angelides: 38%

[NHI]

Hypothetical NH Primary Poll: 2008 (Democrats)

Hillary Clinton: 21%
John Edwards: 19%
Blanche Lincoln: 17%
Evan Bayh: 10%
Barack Obama: 9%
Phil Bredesen: 5%
Undecided/Other: 19%

Hypothetical NH Primary Poll: 2008 (Republicans)

Rudy Giuliani: 87%
Bob Smith: 6%
Undecided/Other: 7%

Republicans: With DeMint

Rudy Giuliani: 86%
Jim DeMint: 8%
Undecided: 4%

Republicans: With DeMint and Smith

Rudy Giuliani: 89%
Bob Smith: 5%
Jim DeMint: 3%
Undecided: 4%

[NHI]

How the hell is DeMint behind Bob Smith now? DeMint is actually the one in the Senate, doing stuff, having influence.

The polls in New Hampshire, Smith's quasi-home state.

[NHI]

Massachusetts: Republican Primary

Kerry Healey (inc) 48%
Bill Weld: 41%
Undecided/Other: 11%

Hypothetical Massachusetts: Gubernatorial Election

Deval Patrick: 50%

Bill Weld: 44%

Approval Rating: Acting Governor Kerry Healey

Approve: 48%

Disapprove: 43%

Undecided/Other: 9%

----

New Hampshire Congressional Races: Polls

Congressional District 1: Lean Republican

Jeb Bradley (inc) 49%

Carol Shea-Porter: 42%

Congressional District 2: Lean Republican

Charlie Bass: 48%

Paul Hodes: 41%

[NHI]

Three MA Governors Back Weld

Boston-
At a rally on Beacon Hill two former governors Paul Celluci and Ed Kiing and former acting governor Jane Swift endorsed Bill Weld in the Republican Primary over Kerry Healey. Former Governor Paul Celluci called Weld "A transformational governor and the type we need in Massachusetts again." King called Weld a reformer and blasted Healey by name saying "She represents the status quo. She lacks a plan or vision for the commonwealth." Jane Swift called Weld the strongest contender against likely Democratic nominee Deval Patrick. "We need to hold onto The Governors Seat. We need a strong contender against Deval Patrick and Bill Weld is that candidate!"

Healey currently holds a 48 percent approval rating in the state. The latest Boston Globe Poll puts her up only 7 points behind Weld. Against Patrick Healey trails anywhere from 7-10 points. Weld, also trails, but by a closer margin. Taking 44 percent to Patrick's 50. 

[NHI]

Can we get a 2008 Iowa Republican Primary poll?

Iowa: Republican Primary 2008 (With DeMint)

Rudy Giuliani: 76%
Jim DeMint: 12%
Other/Undecided: 12%

Iowa: Republican Primary 2008 (With Smith)

Rudy Giuliani: 87%
Bob Smith: 3%
Other/Undecided: 10%

Iowa: Republican Primary Poll 2008 (With DeMint and Smith)

Rudy Giuliani: 80%
Jim DeMint: 10%
Bob Smith: 2%
Other/Undecided: 8%

[NHI]

Report: The Surge Looks to be Working

President Giuliani's decision to support the surge in Iraq was a divisive decision, with it raising issues with both sides of the aisle. But now months into the surge it appears to be working and what many saw as a politically risky decision for Republican is paying off. Military leaders, as well as those in the Pentagon and National Security Advisers to the President cite the success of surge as a result of 'staying focused' and 'finishing the mission'

The Surge

1. Change our strategy to be a population-centric counterinsurgency effort.

The first step in winning the war is changing our strategy. To continue doing the same thing we've done will only cost more Americans their lives and grow our national debt. We must make every moment in Iraq count. Shifting our strategy to focus on protecting the population, winning the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people, and moving away from a seek-and-destroy model of engagement are critical to winning the war. American troops will allow Iraqi troops to lead and will train the Iraqi military to manage their own affairs. Our efforts in improving the security situation will be replaced with a take-and-hold method of warfare. We'll focus on capturing, securing, and holding large portions of the country.

2. Increase the troop deployment to Iraq to accomplish new mission.

The forces we have on the ground now are not sufficient to accomplish our new mission. The United States Armed Forces will increase the troop deployment by 35,000. These additional troops are enough to win the war. These surge troops will be trained to protect the population. Skills such as construction, engineering, etc. will be highly valued in these new recruits.

3. Increase the effectiveness and strength of our intelligence community.

It is the directive of our intelligence community to keep us safe. Winning the War on Terror will require an expansion of our foreign intelligence capacity. We must also authorize the intelligence community to act in any foreign country to root out terrorism. The President will authorize the Director of National Intelligence to centralize all counter-terrorism intelligence in a National Intelligence Directorate. The NID will have 5,000 specially trained troops for their use. These NID troops are trained to be experts in kill-or-capture raids on terrorist targets.

4. Broaden the scope of our intelligence community's efforts abroad.

Since the tragic events of 9/11, our nation has said we will draw no distinction between terrorists and their allies. In order to more effectively prosecute the War on Terror, the United States Intelligence Community will no longer recognize the national boundaries of the following nations when in pursuit of terror:

   -Bahrain
   -Cyprus
   -Egypt
   -Iran
   -Iraq
   -Northern Cyprus
   -Oman
   -Qatar
   -Syria
   -United Arab Emirates
   -Yemen
   -Pakistan

5. Implement a counter-insurgency strategy in Afghanistan.
Similar to Iraq, we must focus on winning the hearts and minds of the population in Afghanistan. Our strategy must shift to protect the people and improve the humanitarian situation as well as the security situation. Our new modus operandi is take-hold-develop, similar to Iraq. Implementation of this strategy will require 60,000 new troops to be deployed to Afghanistan.

6. Degrade access to funding, weapons, and support for terrorists.

Our efforts in the past have been largely successful in identifying and weakening terrorist support networks. With the expansion of foreign intelligence powers, we must also take a freeze-and-seize approach to terrorist assets all over the world. Alongside limiting terrorist financial assets, a new program of poppy eradication in Afghanistan is critical. Our country must step up its agricultural aid to Afghan farmers to complement Columbia-style drug eradication missions.

7. Develop a coalition to address weak Middle Eastern borders.

Terrorist networks have demonstrated their adaptability and flexibility. Their fluid, soldiers-without-countries nature allows them to take advantage of the weak border situation across the Middle East. Efforts to truly eradicate terrorist networks in one country should be complemented by an international commitment to securing national borders in the Middle East.

8. Reassure our allies and include them in the new strategic shift.

Our allies are champions of the Freedom Agenda. They understand the incredible importance of a foreign policy based on both national interest as well as national values. Securing their commitment and strengthening the coalition with new partners and a surge in resources is critical to effectively implementing the new strategy.

While no definite commitment from the Pentagon or the White House, but it has been discussed, at the very least that the stated goal is for the final surge of Iraq troops to be returning home in summer of 2008. One military general stated, "given the recent turnaround in Iraq, we can see the end in sight."

Violence has decreased and August saw the lowest number of American Casualties since the start of the war. Popular support for the Iraq War has increased slightly over the success of the surge. Recent poll put support for war at 52 percent. President Giuliani's personal approval rating has remained steady, hovering around 55 to 57 percent.

[NHI]

2006 Midterms: Primaries

Alabama: Gubernatorial Republican Primary

√ Roy Moore: 50.51%
Bob Reilly (inc): 49.49%

Alaska: Gubernatorial Republican Primary

√ Sarah Palin: 46.10%
Frank Murkowski (inc): 39.93%
John Binkley: 13.97%

Florida: Gubernatorial Republican Primary

√ Charlie Crist: 52.2%
Tom Gallahger: 46.8%

Massachusetts: Gubernatorial Republican Primary

√ William Weld: 52.6%
Kerry Healey (inc): 47.4%

New York: Gubernatorial Republican Primary

√ Donald Trump: 59.9%
John Faso: 38.4%
Other: 1.7%

Texas: Gubernatorial Democratic Primary

√ Laura Miller: 50.0%
Lecita Van De Putte: 36.5%
Rob Pitman: 8.9%
Ron Kirk: 4.6%

Pennsylvania: Senatorial Republican Primary

√ Tom Ridge: 50.07%
Rick Santorum: 49.93%

Texas: Senatorial Republican Primary

√ Ron Paul: 50.16%
Bill Ratliff: 49.84%

General Election Polls: Snapshot

New York Gubernatorial Election (D+5)

Eliot Spitzer: 49%
Donald Trump: 44%

Massachusetts Gubernatorial Election (D+4)

Deval Patrick: 48%
Bill Weld: 44%

Texas Gubernatorial Election (R+10)

Rick Perry: 53%
Laura Miller: 43%

New Hampshire Gubernatorial Election (D+25)

John Lynch: 60%
Jim Coburn: 35%

Arkansas Gubernatorial Election (Tied)

Mike Beebe: 48%
Asa Hutchinson: 48%

Maryland Gubernatorial Election (R+1)

Bob Ehrich: 48%
Martin O'Malley: 47%

Ohio Gubernatorial Election (Tied)

Ted Strickland: 47%
Ken Blackwell: 47%

Colorado Gubernatorial Election (R+2)

Bob Beauprez: 46%
Bill Ritter: 44%

Maine Gubernatorial Election (R+1)

Peter Mills: 34%
John Baldacci: 33%
Barbara Merill: 25%

Minnesota Gubernatorial Election (R+3)

Tim Pawlenty: 50%
Mike Hatch: 47%