Haley has yet to win a single poll against Sheheen.
As far as I know, no one has released a statewide poll for the 2014 race, but PPP did poll the matchup during the SC-1 special election and found Haley leading there 44-38 over Sheheen. Granted, SC-1 is a bit more Republican than the Palmetto State as a whole, but unlike some Republican governors elsewhere, she hasn't done anything to generate massive outrage in the political center. Sure, she's angered Democrats, but that's to be expected of any Republican governing in a solidly Republican state.
The only way Haley loses this election is if Haley loses it. Sheheen can do nothing by himself to win it. While there won't be the GOP surge that helped give her the win in 2010, she'll also have had four years to put to rest the fears that she'd be incompetent at the job or be a carbon copy of Sanford. I'll probably end up voting for Vince again, but Nikki hasn't been as bad as I had feared she would be.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_1211.pdf
I stand corrected . Still, I wouldn't build as much hope as you are doing from that poll. It was conducted in the aftermath of Obama's national victory in an election that had very few contested races at any level in South Carolina. It also has people identifying as Republicans 42-31, so for Sheheen to win he has to get some 60% of the Independents. Also Haley's approval numbers have gone up considerably since their nadir back in December. She had a good 2013. The Winthrop Poll conduced in the same month as that PPP poll had Haley at 40-42 with registered voters for a net -2 disapproval in December 2012, but their April 2013 poll had Haley with 45-39 +6 net approval among the same group. (PPP had Haley at 42-49 for a net -7 disapproval in December 2012.) Even applying just the same level of shift in the Winthrop poll would give Haley a net approval by April in a PPP poll and a lead over Sheheen. If one wee to attribute the difference in the December polls entirely to random variation (which probably is overstating the case), then the probable Haley lead in April would be even more solid.
So yeah, I'll stand by my opinion. This is Haley's race to lose, not Sheheen's to win.
We'll see. I'd still call it a toss-up, but I agree that one poll is far from the end all be all and Haley definitely has some advantages.
I would take Ernest's word on this, seeing as how he lives in the state....
