Prince Edward Island provincial election - April 3, 2023

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Latest poll (from Mainstreet, their first since the last election) has the Tories at 59%, Grits at 23%, Greens at 14% & NDP at 4%.

The campaign will likely see the Tory lead narrow a bit, but - especially since their numbers have been so high for the entirety of this past term - I can't see them doing anything but winning heavily unless they screw up spectacularly in the next few weeks.

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A dozen ridings now reporting advance polls; Tories doing well so far, leading in ten of them (and tied with the Greens in another) with 58%, while the Greens & Grits trail with one riding & 19% of the vote apiece.

That the Tories are winning again, and winning well, isn't exactly a shock; the real interest is who will form the Opposition, and there's no clear sign yet on that.

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CBC has just declared a majority for the Tories; current standings are as follows:

PC - 19 MLAs, 57%
Lib - 3 MLAs, 19%
GP - 1 MLA*, 19%
NDP - 4%

*Still a Tory-Green tie in Bevan-Baker's seat.

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Greens look to take second place in terms of votes but the Liberals will probably win Official Opposition. If Bevan-Baker claws his way back then the two parties will be tied and he'll probably keep his job.

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Still only unofficial returns, of course, but here's how the rough regions break down:

Cardigan
PC - 60.2% (+14%), 7 MLAs (+1)
GP - 22.5% (-5%) (-1 MLA)
Lib - 13.7% (-11%)
NDP - 2.4% (+1%)

Charlottetown
PC - 49.5% (+23%), 4 MLAs (+3)
GP - 23.9% (-12%), 1 MLA (-2)
Lib - 20.9% (-12%), 1 MLA (-1)
NDP - 4.6% (+1%)

Malpeque
PC - 62.3% (+20%), 6 MLAs (+1)
GP - 22.3% (-10%), 1 MLA
Lib - 10.1% (-14%) (-1 MLA)
NDP - 4.8% (+4%)

Egmont
PC - 49.7% (+21%), 5 MLAs (+4)
Lib - 26.0% (-11%), 2 MLAs (-1)
GP - 17.6% (-10%) (-3 MLAs)
NDP - 6.3% (+0%)

OVERALL
PC - 55.9% (+19%), 22 MLAs (+9)
GP - 21.6% (-9%), 2 MLAs (-6)
Lib - 17.2% (-12%), 3 MLAs (-3)
NDP - 4.5% (+2%)

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Breaking ridings down by how they voted last time (&/or whether or not the incumbent ran again), here's how things look:

PC (incumbent re-offering) (11)
PC - 67.0% (+17%), 11 MLAs
GP - 15.2% (-10%)
Lib - 12.0% (-11%)
NDP - 4.8% (+3%)

PC (open) (2)
PC - 53.8% (+10%), 2 MLAs
GP - 28.1% (+1%)
Lib - 16.7% (-12%)
NDP - 1.1% (+1%)

PC (total) (13)
PC - 64.9% (+16%), 13 MLAs
GP - 17.2% (-8%)
Lib - 12.8% (-11%)
NDP - 4.3% (+3%)


GP (incumbent re-offering) (6)
PC - 47.4% (+19%), 4 MLAs (+4)
GP - 38.2% (-4%), 2 MLAs (-4)
Lib - 11.2% (-15%)
NDP - 2.4% (-1%)

GP (open) (2)
PC - 47.1% (+23%), 2 MLAs (+2)
GP - 27.3% (-13%) (-2 MLAs)
Lib - 19.0% (-13%)
NDP - 6.1% (+3%)

GP (total) (
PC - 47.3% (+20%), 6 MLAs (+6)
GP - 35.5% (-6%), 2 MLAs (-6)
Lib - 13.1% (-15%)
NDP - 3.3% (+0%)


Lib (incumbent re-offering) (3)
Lib - 47.2% (+6%), 3 MLAs
PC - 35.4% (+12%)
GP - 4.9% (-16%)
NDP - 11.7% (+0%)

Lib (open) (1)
PC - 61.7% (+38%), 1 MLA (+1)
Lib - 24.2% (-20%) (-1 MLA)
GP - 12.1% (-19%)
NDP - 2.0% (+1%)

Lib (lost in by-elections) (2)
PC - 57.6% (+36%), 2 MLAs (+2)
Lib - 18.4% (-27%) (-2 MLAs)
GP - 21.2% (-12%)
NDP - 2.2% (+1%)

Lib (total) (6)
PC - 47.6% (+25%), 3 MLAs (+3)
Lib - 32.9% (-10%), 3 MLAs (-3)
GP - 12.2% (-14%)
NDP - 6.7% (+0%)

[DistingFlyer]

In addition to a record provincewide vote lead (34.4%, beating the 24.9% Liberal lead in 1989), Matthew MacKay set a record for personal victories, beating his Green opponent by 61.2% (beating Liberal Sonny Gallant's 58.5% lead in Evangeline - Miscouche in 2011).

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Here's a graph outlining how each party has done since 1966 in terms of both first- and second-place finishes.



In spite of their drop in votes (and MLAs), the Greens finished first/second in more ridings than in 2019 (from 19 to 20); the Liberals, on the other hand, only lost three seats but dropped way down in first/second-place finishes (from 15 to 6).