Australia 2022 Election

[DistingFlyer]

At this point, I'll be very surprised if Morrison doesn't win.

Getting deja vu from 2019 as I watch the two candidates for PM choose their itineraries for their final day on the trail.  Albanese having coffee with Julia Gillard in a pretty safe Liberal seat in Adelaide and then heading to Victoria and Canberra.  Is this really where a Labor leader should be spending their last day of the campaign?  Time will tell.

It feels mad to say that the polls are wrong, so I won't: I don't know which seats Labor will flip, assuming that they hold most of what they've already got, but you'd have to expect a decent result when the polling is consistently saying 53% of the 2PP.

All I can say is that watching these final days, Labor comes across as having not sealed the deal at all while Morrison is trying his hardest to repeat his bull-headed formula from the last one.  The odds are stacked against him, much more so than even in 2019.  What say you, Atlasians?  Does it feel like there is a strong mood for change in the air?  Labor is acting significantly less confident now than at this point three years ago, but that's obviously from the whiplash of the shock loss.  And also partially because of Albanese himself: a thoroughly weak individual whose spinelessness appears to have infected the rest of the party from the top on down.  Go on out there and win it, you losers!  The country is practically handing it to you.

I can't help thinking of 2007: Labor had been leading - and leading well - for a year or so, but their numbers dipped a bit as the big day approached. Given the result of three years earlier some began to wonder if the Coalition could make yet another surprise comeback, but when it was over Labor had won a decent majority (albeit not the huge one that most pre-campaign polls had suggested).

[DistingFlyer]

I've been reading this topic from time to time and completely forgot you guys had a general election today. I know the ALP was leading in the polls. What's it looking like right now with returns in? From what I gather, ALP is winning but it's a lot closer than expected. Is that right? (It also sounds frighteningly familiar to me.)

At the moment 30.1% of votes have been counted; ABC's numbers are as follows:

Labor - 62 (50.7%)
Coalition - 45 (49.3%)
Green - 1
Others - 5

[DistingFlyer]

I've been reading this topic from time to time and completely forgot you guys had a general election today. I know the ALP was leading in the polls. What's it looking like right now with returns in? From what I gather, ALP is winning but it's a lot closer than expected. Is that right? (It also sounds frighteningly familiar to me.)

At the moment 30.1% of votes have been counted; ABC's numbers are as follows:

Labor - 62 (50.7%)
Coalition - 45 (49.3%)
Green - 1
Others - 5

That was the first site I went to actually. I don't see any maps though. I assume Western Australia comes in last, right? I know that's also one of the Coalition's strongholds in federal elections though. Also, from what I recall, the ALP got it's a$$ handed to it in Queensland three years ago. Have things improved there?

Labor currently on a 3.9% swing in Queensland (nearly double the nationwide swing); seat tally is 19 Coalition to 5 Labor.

Nothing declared in Western Australia yet, though the current Labor swing is running at over 7%; we'll see how that holds.

[DistingFlyer]

Two things won the election:

* That WA swing. I thought the tide was going out for Labor there. I thought they'd do well, but merely solidly and win two seats. Instead, double digit swings everywhere, 4 Liberal seats lost to Labor, probably one seat lost to a Teal and one seat in doubt. And it looks like being a 3 Labor-2 Liberal-1 Green result in the Senate as things stand. It ended up being Labor's best state, which I'm not sure has ever happened before (the only time that it would've been even close was 1983).

Last time was indeed 1983; the only other time was 1943. Breaks Tasmania's ten-election streak of being Labor's best state (1993 through 2019). Considering Western Australia had recently been the Coalition's best state (for four consecutive elections, no less: 2007 through 2016) it's even more remarkable.

Other states fare as follows (regarding the question 'When was it Labor/the Coalition's best state?'):

New South Wales - Coalition never, Labor 1990
Queensland - Coalition 2022, Labor 1934
South Australia - Coalition 1998, Labor 1977
Tasmania - Coalition 1987, Labor 2019
Victoria - Coalition 1969, Labor 1987