Ontario Election 2022

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Elections Ontario has published the official poll-by-poll results for the 2022 provincial election for all 124 ridings.

https://www.elections.on.ca/en/resource-centre/elections-results.html#accordionResultsProcess

Good luck trying to find a summary.

That was fast, compared with federal election which took months.  Anybody able to start doing maps on these?  Also for anyone if people can give me poll numbers by municipality I can over the summer as in past breakdown results by county and municipality but may take some time.

If memory serves, the official federal constituency counts were all finished within a couple weeks of the last election (as always, some of the bigger/more remote ridings took longest). Most were done within one week.

As for maps, I've already done some constituency-level ones that are visible on previous pages here; will update them once the Kiiwetinoong count has been finalized.

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Kiiwetinoong's count still not finished (I think it took 2-3 weeks last time), but here are maps showing the change in each major party's vote over the last two elections - that is, from 2014 to 2022:

PC


NDP


Lib

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Kiiwetinoong's final count has been completed at last; still no province-wide totals provided by Elections Ontario, so can't be 100% certain of the overall figures:

PC - 1,919,890 (40.8%)
Lib - 1,124,048 (23.9%)
NDP - 1,116,375 (23.7%)
GP - 280,005 (6.0%)
Other - 261,599 (5.6%)
TOTAL - 4,701,917

If anyone has different numbers please put them up and I'll double-check my own.

EDIT: Have found a couple of errors in the Green & Other column; have corrected the numbers above.

Have updated the Ontario pdf file to include the latest 2022 figures & byelection results, as well as those for Alberta (it now goes back to 1959) and Saskatchewan (it now goes back to 1934): https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Pa-73KSfj_nmezJ0WKTKrjlDW6RFUJJR?usp=sharing

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Looking back to 1934, here's how each election broke down by first/second combinations (Tory vs. Liberal, NDP vs. Liberal, etc.):

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Using the same color scheme* as the above graph, here are maps illustrating the same information for 2014 (notional), 2018 & 2022.

2014N (PC/Lib 75, Lib/NDP 35, PC/NDP 14)


2018 (PC/NDP 90, PC/Lib 22, Lib/NDP 11, PC/GP 1)


2022 (PC/NDP 55, PC/Lib 53, Lib/NDP 13, PC/GP 2, PC/Ind 1)



*Well, not quite: Tory vs. Green and Tory vs. Independent get their own colors, as opposed to the generic 'main party vs. other' gray that's on the graph.

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Noticed in a lot of rural ridings Ford did worse than O'Toole despite doing better overall.  It seems rural/urban divide was weaker provincially than federally.  Sure urban cores never liked Ford, but he did win suburbs and did well in smaller urban areas.  Rural it seems he got hurt by Ontario Party and New Blue Party.  Not enough to cost him any seats but likely Ontario's tough covid restrictions faced some backlash there which helped further right parties.  

Liberals while did horrible it seems at least re-established themselves as clear second place option in 905 belt but not enough to actually win seats but not perfect split like 2018.  Where PCs were quite successful is made strong inroads in blue collar ridings while still holding upper middle class suburbs and most on right tend to do well in one or another not both.  Trump was former while Harper 2011 was more latter as was Romney 2012 and David Cameron.  Boris Johnson did well in both but in latter only because Labour was too far left since if Labour had chosen anyone less extreme, I somehow doubt he would have won both.  BC Liberals also saw shift as Campbell was very much your upper middle class suburbs and struggled in blue collar ridings while Christy Clark gained in latter but fell backwards in former.  

Yes; although the Ontario & New Blue Parties grabbed 4.5% of the vote, they cost the Tories very few seats. Even if every single one of their votes had gone Tory, only two ridings, Niagara Centre & Oshawa, would have flipped.

Contrast that with 1990, where the Family Coalition & Confederation of Regions Parties got 4.6% but cost the Tories up to 14 seats (therefore potentially giving the NDP their majority):

Brampton South (Lib)
Durham East (NDP)
Durham - York (NDP)
Frontenac - Addington (NDP)
Halton Centre (Lib)
Halton North (NDP)
Hastings - Peterborough (NDP)
Huron (NDP)
Lambton (NDP)
Middlesex (NDP)
Northumberland (Lib)
Oxford (NDP)
Peterborough (NDP)
Prince Edward - Lennox (NDP)


Looking federally, I already outlined which ridings had the PPC getting fewer votes than that by which the Tories lost them (22 in total) (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=463929.msg8266735#msg8266735); if one looks back to 1988, where the Tories were returned to government comfortably in spite of the beginnings of the Reform Party & others, here are the constituencies that those parties could have cost the Tories:

Edmonton East (AB) (NDP)
Haldimand - Norfolk (ON) (Lib)
Hamilton Mountain (ON) (Lib)
Hillsborough (PE) (Lib)
Kootenay East (BC) (NDP)
Lambton - Middlesex (ON) (Lib)
Leeds - Grenville (ON) (Lib)
Nipissing (ON) (Lib)
Northumberland (ON) (Lib)
Okanagan - Similkameen - Merritt (BC) (NDP)
Saanich - Gulf Islands (BC) (NDP)
Victoria (BC) (NDP)

A total of twelve (seven Liberal & five NDP). Going down that list, most today are either safe Tory seats or ones where they have no hope at all of winning anymore. Looking at the Ontario ridings, there's also a certain overlap with the 1990 FCP/CoR spoiler list.

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I really do think those parties helped paint Ford as the moderate option.  Got the right win "nuts" out of his party, and made a vote for him become a vote for the "centre", pulled in some would be Liberal voters.

A la Henry Wallace & Harry Truman.

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Have finally updated my spreadsheet to include figures going back to 1867; will put up graphs showing vote & MLA/MPP numbers at some point, but for the moment here's a graph showing vote shares, seat counts, swings, major party leaders & the constituencies in which they ran.

The image of Ontario voters splitting their tickets (federally vs. provincially) is somewhat borne out, even more so when one looks at popular vote figures for 1898 & 1902, when the Tories (who by now were in opposition in Ottawa) outpolled the Liberals but didn't win government.

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A graph showing seat numbers only:



And one showing vote percentages:

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Largest provincial swings:

1919 - 27.3% from Cons to UFO/Lab (Tories fall from government to third, though they still come second in votes)
1995 - 19.2% from NDP to PC (NDP falls from government to third)
1934 - 16.8% from Cons to Lib (Tories lose government)
2018 - 14.1% from Lib to PC (Liberals fall from government to third)
1990 - 13.4% from Lib to NDP (Liberals lose government)
1923 - 11.5% from UFO/Lab to Cons (UFO/Lab lose government)
2003 - 8.5% from PC to Lib (Tories lose government)
1943 - 8.0% from Lib to PC (Liberals fall from government to third)
1975 - 7.5% from PC to Lib (Tories lose their majority but still stay in office, while the Liberals fall to third place but come a close second in votes)
1985 - 5.8% from PC to Lib (Tories lose their majority; Liberals take office with NDP support)
1898 - 5.1% from Lib to Cons (Liberals retain their majority but lose the popular vote to the Tories)
1945 - 5.0% from Lib to PC (Tories go from minority to majority, while the Liberals go from third to second)

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Largest overall victories (similar to the chart I made for US elections; formula uses majority, vote share & vote margin):

1951 - PC (Leslie Frost) - 79 of 90 - 48.5% - 17.0%
1955 - PC (Leslie Frost) - 84 of 98 - 48.5% - 15.2%
1929 - Cons (Howard Ferguson) - 90 of 112 - 56.7% - 23.9%
1908 - Cons (James Whitney) - 86 of 106 - 54.2% - 13.0%
1911 - Cons (James Whitney) - 82 of 106 - 54.6% - 14.1%
1914 - Cons (James Whitney) - 84 of 111 - 53.5% - 15.2%
1934 - Lib (Mitch Hepburn) - 69 of 90 - 49.4% - 9.7%
1987 - Lib (David Peterson) - 95 of 130 - 47.3% - 21.6%
1937 - Lib (Mitch Hepburn) - 66 of 90 - 51.1% - 11.2%
1945 - PC (George Drew) - 66 of 90 - 44.2% - 14.8%
1963 - PC (John Robarts) - 77 of 108 - 48.6% - 13.3%
1959 - PC (Leslie Frost) - 71 of 98 - 46.2% - 9.5%
1905 - Cons (James Whitney) - 69 of 98 - 53.5% - 7.8%
1926 - Cons (Howard Ferguson) - 73 of 112 - 56.5% - 22.0%
1923 - Cons (Howard Ferguson) - 75 of 111 - 48.3% - 20.6%
2003 - Lib (Dalton McGuinty) - 72 of 103 - 46.5% - 11.8%

Five of the nine Tory premiers to win an election appear at least once (all but Macdonald, Davis, Harris & Ford), while only three of the eight Liberals do so (Blake, Mowat, Hardy, Ross & Wynne are absent).

Every single election won by Whitney, Ferguson, Hepburn & Frost makes the list, as does Peterson's sole majority.

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This is more of an unrelated historical question, but what the hell happened in 1919 with the UFO/Labor landslide?

Post-War economic/social trouble, divisions in the Conservative Party (especially over prohibition), and rural discontent were probably the biggest factors. Those came through in the NS & Manitoba elections the following year, which saw Farmer/Labour semi-coalitions dent the Liberals and hollow out the Tories, and in the Alberta & federal elections the year after that, which had the same effect. Victory in Manitoba was won on the second attempt in 1922. Tariffs were also a big issue federally, which damaged the still-protectionist Tories in rural areas.

In each instance, success (and in Ontario's case, government) seemed to catch the Progressives (as they were also known) by surprise. In none of those elections did they actually have a leader; Drury was chosen afterwards, and ran in a by-election a couple months later. On coming to power in Manitoba in 1922, they still didn't have one, and picked Bracken after the election as well. In Alberta they did (sort of), in the form of the UFA president, but he didn't run in 1921, and declined to become Premier after the election, so the caucus picked Greenfield.

While the Progressives lasted in government in Alberta until 1935, and in Manitoba until 1932 (when they merged with the Liberals, in which form they stayed in power until 1958), they got thrown out in Ontario after just one term. The immediate post-War years were tough economically, the party wasn't really ready for government (as they hadn't expected to win in the first place), and they had a knack for pissing off their base. Substitute 1990s for 1920s and NDP for Progressive and this paragraph isn't a bad description of the Rae government's problems either.

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Instances where a sitting Premier has lost his own constituency:

1919 - William Hearst (Cons) loses Sault Ste. Marie by 1370 (18.2%)
1923 - Ernest Drury (UFO) loses Halton by 716 (6.3%)
1948 - George Drew (PC) loses High Park by 1017 (3.7%) (the only time where a Premier has been defeated while his government retained its majority)
1990 - David Peterson (Lib) loses London Centre by 8166 (23.5%)


Times when the leader of a major opposition party has lost:

1923 - Wellington Hay (Lib) loses Perth North by 410 (3.4%)
1929 - John Lethbridge (Prog) loses Middlesex West by 186 (1.9%)
1934 - John Mitchell (CCF) loses Wentworth by 501 (2.8%) (came third) (not an incumbent)
1937 - Earl Rowe (Cons) loses Simcoe Centre by 1294 (8.4%) (not an incumbent)
1937 - John Mitchell (CCF) loses Waterloo South by 6294 (41.0%) (came third) (still not an incumbent)
1945 - Mitch Hepburn (Lib) loses Elgin by 2402 (12.2%) (former Premier)
1945 - Ted Jolliffe (CCF) loses York South by 768 (2.1%)
1951 - Walter Thomson (Lib) loses Ontario by 4248 (14.2%) (came third) (not an incumbent)
1951 - Ted Jolliffe (CCF) loses York South by 514 (1.5%)
1963 - John Wintermeyer (Lib) loses Waterloo North by 2813 (7.1%)
1987 - Larry Grossman (PC) loses St. Andrew - St. Patrick by 3676 (11.9%)
2007 - John Tory (PC) loses Don Valley West by 4924 (10.8%) (had previously sat for another riding)
2009 - John Tory (PC) loses Haliburton - Kawartha Lakes - Brock by 947 (2.7%) (by-election) (no longer an incumbent - see above)
2022 - Steven Del Duca (Lib) loses Vaughan - Woodbridge by 6725 (18.7%) (not an incumbent, though had held this seat before)

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From 1943, when the Tory dynasty began and the CCF first became a serious contender, here are all the Ministers to lose re-election:

1943 (Liberal government defeated)
Eric Cross (Attorney General/Municipal Affairs) loses Haldimand – Norfolk by 791 (4.5%)
Patrick Dewan (Agriculture) loses Oxford by 1461 (8.5%)
Peter Heenan (Labour) loses Kenora by 1861 (19.7%)
Norman Hipel (Lands & Forests) loses Waterloo South by 1958 (13.1%)
William Houck (without Portfolio) loses Niagara Falls by 2462 (15.0%)
Harold Kirby (Health) loses Eglinton by 6887 (25.0%)
Thomas McQuesten (Highways) loses Hamilton – Wentworth by 980 (5.5%) (came third)

1948 (PC government re-elected)
George Drew (Premier/Education) loses High Park by 1017 (3.7%)
Roland Michener (Provincial Secretary) loses St. David by 676 (3.3%)
William Webster (without Portfolio) loses London by 1027 (3.3%)

1955 (PC government re-elected)
William Hamilton (without Portfolio) loses Wellington South by 1968 (9.6%)

1967 (PC government re-elected)
Wilf Spooner (Municipal Affairs) loses Cochrane South by 801 (4.2%)
George Wardrope (Mines) loses Port Arthur by 810 (4.0%)

1975 (PC government re-elected)
Dick Beckett (without Portfolio) loses Brantford by 2949 (9.6%) (came third)
John Clement (Attorney General/Solicitor General) loses Niagara Falls by 172 (0.6%)
Eric Winkler (Management Board Chair) loses Grey by 277 (1.1%)

1977 (PC government re-elected)
John Smith (Government Services) loses Hamilton Mountain by 373 (1.1%)

1985 (PC government defeated)
Ed Havrot (Transportation & Communications) loses Timiskaming by 2824 (13.3%)
Morley Kells (Environment) loses Humber by 1951 (5.0%)
Keith Norton (Education/Colleges & Universities) loses Kingston & the Islands by 2287 (8.9%)
René Piché (without Portfolio) loses Cochrane North by 1910 (10.3%)
Alan Robinson (without Portfolio) loses Scarborough – Ellesmere by 219 (0.8%)
David Rotenberg (without Portfolio) loses Wilson Heights by 2188 (7.2%)
Gordon Walker (Consumer & Commercial Relations) loses London South by 6683 (13.9%)
John Williams (Solicitor General) loses Oriole by 4084 (11.4%)

1990 (Liberal government defeated)
Ken Black (Anti-Drug Strategy) loses Muskoka – Georgian Bay by 4317 (13.1%) (came third)
Shirley Collins (without Portfolio) loses Wentworth East by 3147 (9.2%)
Richard Patten (Correctional Services) loses Ottawa Centre by 2866 (9.4%)
David Peterson (Premier/Intergovernmental Affairs) loses London Centre by 8166 (23.5%)
Chris Ward (Government Services/House Leader) loses Wentworth North by 88 (0.3%)
Bob Wong (Citizenship, Race Relations & Human Rights Commission) loses Fort York by 1367 (5.7%)
Bill Wrye (Transport) loses Windsor – Sandwich by 4145 (14.1%)

1995 (NDP government defeated)
Richard Allen (Housing) loses Hamilton West by 4034 (12.3%)
Elmer Buchanan (Agriculture, Food & Rural Affairs) loses Hastings – Peterborough by 7859 (26.3%)
Brian Charlton (Management Board Chair) loses Hamilton Mountain by 4015 (10.6%) (came third)
Shirley Coppen (Labour) loses Niagara South by 3439 (14.9%) (came third)
Mike Farnan (Transportation) loses Cambridge by 5472 (14.9%)
Ruth Grier (Health) loses Etobicoke – Lakeshore by 6600 (20.1%) (came third)
Bob Huget (without Portfolio) loses Sarnia by 1773 (6.5%) (came third)
Irene Mathyssen (without Portfolio) loses Middlesex by 6885 (17.7%) (came third)
Steve Owens (without Portfolio) loses Scarborough Centre by 5876 (21.2%) (came third)
Ed Philip (Municipal Affairs) loses Etobicoke – Rexdale by 853 (3.3%)
Allan Pilkey (without Portfolio) loses Oshawa by 8343 (27.0%)
Anne Swarbrick (Culture, Tourism & Recreation) loses Scarborough West by 2557 (9.4%)
Brad Ward (without Portfolio) loses Brantford by 5580 (16.6%) (came third)
Shelley Wark-Martyn (without Portfolio) loses Port Arthur by 6791 (23.3%)
Fred Wilson (without Portfolio) loses Frontenac – Addington by 4909 (15.5%) (came third)
Elaine Ziemba (Citzenship/Disabled Persons/Seniors) loses High Park – Swansea by 1660 (6.1%)

1999 (PC government re-elected)
Isabel Bassett (Citizenship, Culture & Recreation) loses St. Paul’s by 4782 (10.2%)
Dave Johnson (Education & Training) loses Don Valley East by 3038 (7.3%)
Noble Villeneuve (Agriculture, Food & Rural Affairs/Francophone Affairs) loses Stormont – Dundas – Charlottenburgh by 640 (1.5%)

2003 (PC government defeated)
Brad Clark (Labour) loses Stoney Creek by 5234 (10.3%)
Tony Clement (Health & Long-Term Care) loses Brampton West – Mississauga by 2512 (4.0%)
Brian Coburn (Tourism & Recreation) loses Ottawa – Orléans by 4538 (9.0%)
Dianne Cunningham (Training, Colleges & Universities/Women’s Issues) loses London North Centre by 6752 (14.5%)
Carl DeFaria (Citizenship/Seniors) loses Mississauga East by 2854 (8.3%)
Janet Ecker (Finance) loses Pickering – Ajax – Uxbridge by 1010 (1.9%)
Brenda Elliott (Community, Family & Children’s Services) loses Guelph – Wellington by 2872 (5.1%)
Doug Galt (without Portfolio) loses Northumberland by 2566 (5.7%)
Helen Johns (Agriculture & Food) loses Huron – Bruce by 3285 (7.6%)
Dave Tsubouchi (Culture) loses Markham by 5996 (11.4%)
David Young (Municipal Affairs & Housing) loses Willowdale by 1866 (4.0%)
(There were also three Associate Ministers who lost)

2007 (Liberal government re-elected)
Caroline Di Cocco (Culture) loses Sarnia – Lambton by 3702 (8.7%)

2011 (Liberal government re-elected)
Sophia Aggelonitis (Revenue/Seniors) loses Hamilton Mountain by 5798 (12.8%)
Leona Dombrowsky (Education) loses Prince Edward – Hastings by 3130 (7.0%)
Carol Mitchell (Agriculture, Food & Rural Affairs) loses Huron – Bruce by 4479 (10.0%)
John Wilkinson (Environment) loses Perth – Wellington by 210 (0.6%)

2014 (Liberal government re-elected)
Teresa Piruzza (Children & Youth Services/Women’s Issues) loses Windsor West by 1042 (2.9%)

2018 (Liberal government defeated)
Laura Albanese (Citizenship & Immigration) loses York South – Weston by 3076 (8.2%) (came third)
Chris Ballard (Environment & Climate Change) loses Newmarket – Aurora by 12973 (24.9%) (came third)
Bob Chiarelli (Infrastructure) loses Ottawa West – Nepean by 1780 (3.5%) (came third)
Dipika Damerla (Seniors Affairs) loses Mississauga East – Cooksville by 4739 (10.9%)
Steven Del Duca (Economic Development & Growth) loses Vaughan – Woodbridge by 7945 (18.5%)
Kevin Flynn (Labour) loses Oakville by 4510 (7.9%)
Helena Jaczek (Health & Long-Term Care) loses Markham – Stouffville by 11905 (22.1%)
Jeff Leal (Agriculture, Food & Rural Affairs/Small Business) loses Peterborough – Kawartha by 7958 (13.1%) (came third)
Harinder Malhi (Status of Women) loses Brampton North by 6467 (16.3%) (came third)
Bill Mauro (Municipal Affairs) loses Thunder Bay – Atikokan by 81 (0.2%)
Kathryn McGarry (Transportation) loses Cambridge by 6602 (13.7%) (came third)
Eleanor McMahon (Treasury Board President/Tourism, Culture & Sport/Digital Government) loses Burlington by 9989 (15.8%) (came third)
Peter Milczyn (Housing/Poverty Reduction) loses Etobicoke – Lakeshore by 8321 (14.1%) (came third)
Reza Moridi (Research, Innovation & Science) loses Richmond Hill by 10116 (23.3%)
Indira Naidoo-Harris (Education) loses Milton by 5185 (11.8%)
Yasir Naqvi (Attorney General/House Leader) loses Ottawa Centre by 8564 (13.3%)
Charles Sousa (Finance) loses Mississauga – Lakeshore by 3884 (7.3%)
Glenn Thibeault (Energy) loses Sudbury by 9278 (25.7%) (came third)
Daiene Vernile (Tourism, Culture & Sport) loses Kitchener Centre by 11013 (23.3%) (came third)
David Zimmer (Indigenous Affairs & Reconciliation) loses Willowdale by 6917 (17.0%

The biggest surprise for me was that more Tory ministers lost in 1985 than Liberal ones in 1990 (though that's partly a result of the Cabinet having shrunk by almost a third).

The heaviest defeat for a Minister in the last 80 years was that of Allan Pilkey in Oshawa in 1995, who lost to Jerry Ouellette by 27.0%. Runner-up for that dubious prize is another 1995 New Democrat, Elmer Buchanan in Hastings – Peterborough (26.3%), with bronze going to Liberal Glenn Thibeault, who lost Sudbury by 25.7% in 2018.

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I realize that it was a complete train-wreck of an administration, but why did the NDP have so many ministers without portfolio?

They were without portfolio, but were junior ministers with explicit roles.

How big was the cabinet exactly?

It was 27 strong on leaving office: 11 members were re-elected while 16 were not.

The largest Cabinet was Miller's in 1985, which had 33.

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Then there's the matter of Speakers--from what I can tell, defeated Speakers over that span were James Clark (Lib, 1943), James Hepburn (PC, 1948), William Murdoch (PC, 1963), and David Warner (NDP, 1995)

You beat me to it! Yes, that's all of them. Here they are in more detail:

1943 (Liberal government defeated)
James Clark loses Windsor – Sandwich by 3199 (21.6%) (came third)

1948 (PC government re-elected)
James Hepburn loses Prince Edward – Lennox by 55 (0.4%)

1963 (PC government re-elected)
Bill Murdoch loses Essex South by 715 (3.7%)

1995 (NDP government defeated)
David Warner loses Scarborough – Ellesmere by 5376 (19.4%)