Ontario Election 2022

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Safest seat in the province is (once again) Renfrew - Nipissing - Pembroke, John Yakabuski's fiefdom; his majority (44.0%) is down from last time (52.5%), probably due to the two breakaway conservative parties siphoning off some votes (the NDP runner-up's share stayed pretty much the same).

Riding with the highest vote share for a candidate is not Yakabuski's this time, though, but rather Timmins, of all places, where George Pirie took 64.9%.


Best NDP riding - both in margin and vote share - is, for the second time in a row, Hamilton Centre: Andrea Horwath is on 57.3% & a lead of 40.8%. (It was also their best riding in 2011, her first election as party leader.)


Best Liberal riding in terms of majority is Ottawa South, where John Fraser won by 21.4% (and the Tories dropped to third). Best in terms of vote share is neighboring Orleans, won by Stephen Blais with 46.4%; no Liberal got a majority of the vote in this election or the last one.


Should also note that Doug Ford himself improved his share of the vote (52.5% to 55.3%) and majority (27.1% to 31.8%) in Etobicoke Centre. He got the highest share of the vote of any of the leaders, edging out Mike Schreiner's 54.5% in Guelph, but a smaller majority than the Green leader's 34.0%.

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The last polls for Kiiwetinoong have come in, turning it into the best riding for the NDP as far as vote share goes (57.6%).

Those last four polls were pretty lopsided: 197 NDP votes, ten Liberal ones, four Tory ones, and two each for the Greens & New Blues.

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Since the list is so short, here are the OLP seats:

Beaches-East York
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Kingston and the Islands
Orleans
Ottawa South
Ottawa-Vanier
Scarborough-Guildwood

Three in Toronto (specifically the 416), three in Ottawa and only one in the rest of the province (Kingston).

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Have updated the Ontario file to include last night's election (preliminary data only, of course, but official counts took several weeks last time & I wanted to assemble something sooner) as well as the Liberal victories of 1934 & 1937:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aDDCBmdjAIPECIYPPDcX6r-Dy3lkAvV7/view?usp=sharing

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Looking at the Tory gains, here's when they last won those ridings (or their nearest equivalents):

Brampton Centre - 1999
Brampton East - 1999 (as Bramalea - Gore - Malton - Springdale)
Brampton North - 1999 (as Brampton Centre)
Essex - 1959 (as Essex South)
Hamilton East - Stoney Creek - 1951 (as Wentworth)
Thunder Bay - Atikokan - 1985 (as Fort William)
Timmins - 1987 (as Cochrane South)
Windsor - Tecumseh - 1929 (as Essex North)
York South - Weston - 1951 (as York South)

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Though it does depend on which bit as some of those ridings don't have entirely clear predecessors. So a majority of the electorate of Hamilton East-Stoney Creek at the time of the creation of the riding lived in the former riding of Stoney Creek, which last elected a PC MPP in 1999.

Quite true; I went with the earlier result as the 1999 Tory margin in Stoney Creek (5.6%) was far smaller than the Liberal lead in Hamilton East (31.5%).

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Looking back to 1934, these are what the different parties' best regions were at each election (in terms of their vote lead, not vote share, though the two usually went together):

[The definitions of each region are not exactly strict, and have changed over time, so others may come up with slightly different figures from those below - just wanted to point that out myself before a bunch of others did!]

Tories
1934 - GTA (-2.1%)
1937 - GTA (-2.4%)
1943 - East (+4.6%)
1945 - GTA (+18.1%)
1948 - East (+16.1%)
1951 - East (+19.8%)
1955 - East (+21.1%)
1959 - East (+16.7%)
1963 - East (+17.7%)
1967 - East (+19.8%)
1971 - East (+21.0%)
1975 - East (+9.0%)
1977 - East (+10.0%)
1981 - GTA (+21.4%) - their best regional lead in the last 90 years
1985 - North (+12.2%)
1987 - North (-13.4%) - their 'worst best' in the last 90 years
1990 - East (+12.2%)
1995 - GTA (+18.0%)
1999 - GTA (+7.9%)
2003 - East (-9.8%)
2007 - East (-5.9%)
2011 - East (+5.6%)
2014 - East (-1.2%)
2018 - East (+14.1%)
2022 - East (+14.4%)


Liberals
1934 - North (+17.9%)
1937 - West (+20.6%)
1943 - West (+0.0%)
1945 - North (-4.5%)
1948 - West (-4.5%)
1951 - North (-9.3%)
1955 - West (-9.3%)
1959 - West (-5.4%)
1963 - West (-9.4%)
1967 - West (-5.7%)
1971 - West (-7.0%)
1975 - West (+8.7%)
1977 - West (+7.6%)
1981 - West (+3.8%)
1985 - West (+10.6%)
1987 - GTA (+22.9%)
1990 - East (+8.6%)
1995 - North (+0.2%)
1999 - North (+12.4%)
2003 - North (+23.7%) - their best regional lead in the last 90 years
2007 - GTA (+15.2%)
2011 - GTA (+12.9%)
2014 - GTA (+17.8%)
2018 - GTA (-15.9%) - their 'worst best' in the last 90 years
2022 - GTA (-9.5%)


CCF/NDP
1934 - GTA (-29.8%)
1937 - GTA (-31.7%) - their 'worst best' in the last 90 years
1943 - North (+21.0%) - their best regional lead in the last 90 years
1945 - North (+4.5%)
1948 - GTA (-1.6%)
1951 - GTA (-17.6%)
1955 - GTA (-19.0%)
1959 - GTA (-18.1%)
1963 - North (-13.2%)
1967 - GTA (-7.1%)
1971 - North (-3.7%)
1975 - North (+4.5%)
1977 - North (-5.7%)
1981 - North (-14.6%)
1985 - GTA (-9.9%)
1987 - North (-4.3%)
1990 - West (+13.6%)
1995 - North (-4.8%)
1999 - North (-16.2%)
2003 - North (-23.7%)
2007 - North (-7.8%)
2011 - North (+7.5%)
2014 - North (+4.9%)
2018 - North (+12.0%)
2022 - North (-7.1%)

[DistingFlyer]

Dumb question.  Where I can I find the most up-to-date Ontario election results by riding and candidate?

I downloaded each riding from Elections Ontario, but Canadian Press seems to have more polls reporting (e.g. Burlington).  But CP is missing data for some minor party candidates.

Any suggestions?

Strange - the Elections Ontario figures were up-to-date yesterday (that is, each seat had all of its polls accounted for) but they don't seem to be now, although the links to the data are different.

My spreadsheet does have the riding information as complete as it can be right now (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=453425.msg8630731#msg8630731) though the minor parties (i.e. not PC, Liberal, NDP or Green) are all lumped into the 'other' column, which may not be what you want.

EDIT: Can also look here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16Yuhrvny4nC9oKoT-0lnAmS3Lhg1Qnm5/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=102460231885619043601&rtpof=true&sd=true); you can see the individual candidates' votes in the 'other' column, but not their party names.

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Two new charts - first, the parties' vote share from 1934 to the present:



Second, the number of members elected over the same timeframe:

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Looking at the Tory gains, here's when they last won those ridings (or their nearest equivalents):

Brampton Centre - 1999
Brampton East - 1999 (as Bramalea - Gore - Malton - Springdale)
Brampton North - 1999 (as Brampton Centre)
Essex - 1959 (as Essex South)
Hamilton East - Stoney Creek - 1951 (as Wentworth)
Thunder Bay - Atikokan - 1985 (as Fort William)
Timmins - 1987 (as Cochrane South)
Windsor - Tecumseh - 1929 (as Essex North)
York South - Weston - 1951 (as York South)

Here are the other five ridings to flip:

NDP to Lib (2)
Beaches - East York (won by the Liberals in 2014; otherwise NDP since 1975)
Kingston & the Islands (won by the NDP only in 1990 & 2018; Liberal from 1995 through 2014)

Lib to NDP (1)
Thunder Bay - Superior North (last won by the NDP in 1990)

PC to NDP (1)
Ottawa West - Nepean (never held by the CCF or NDP before, but the UFO won there in 1919 - this breaks a longer losing streak than any of the Tory gains do)

PC to Ind (1)
Haldimand - Norfolk (held by the Tories since 1995)

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Swings for the 2022 election:



And for the 2018 election:

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It seems like a lot of these swings to/from reflect the nature of the opposition party--like, Whitby standing out as a "blue" seat owing something to the technicality of the diminished NDP remaining the 2nd place party there, as opposed to other 905 seats where the Libs dead-cat-bounced back into 2nd or a more robust 2nd place position than in '18.

You can see the same thing in the 2018 map, where the darkest ridings are 2014 Liberal ones (and the swings illustrated are the large Lib-PC or Lib-NDP ones); in contrast, seats already held by the Tories or NDP usually have PC-NDP swings (unless the Liberals managed to hold on to second place), which tended to be smaller as the two parties grew at a similar rate in that election.

I did make separate 2018 maps for the Lib-NDP, Lib-PC and PC-NDP swings; once the 2022 results have been finalized I might do the same for that election.

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. . . and here are those maps illustrating the different kinds of swing in 2018:

Lib-PC


Lib-NDP


PC-NDP

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Anyone have breakdown of how regions voted?

I was thinking for main regions

416 - Toronto
905 belt
Hamilton-Niagara
Central Ontario
Southwestern Ontario
Northern Ontario
Eastern Ontario

For sub-regions

Durham
York
Peel
Halton
Hamilton
Niagara
Waterloo
London
Essex County
Ottawa
Eastern Ontario outside Ottawa

I have figures for some of those:

Metro Toronto (416)
PC - 12 MPPs (+1), 32.2% (-0.6%)
NDP - 9 MPPs (-2), 27.9% (-8.6%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 31.9% (+5.7%)

Rest of GTA (905)
PC - 29 MPPs (+3), 46.8% (+1.1%)
NDP - 1 MPP (-3), 14.4% (-12.3%)
Lib - 30.3% (+7.6%)

Eastern
PC - 13 MPPs (-1), 41.2% (-1.4%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 26.8% (+3.7%)
NDP - 2 MPPs, 21.9% (-6.6%)

Northern
NDP - 7 MPPs (-1), 33.4% (-10.9%)
PC - 6 MPPs (+2), 40.5% (+8.3%)
Lib - 11.4% (-4.2%)

The Tory vote dropped the most in Eastern Ontario, as Ottawa continues to drift away from them and the New Blue & Ontario Parties took a bite out of their rural vote.

The Tory vote rose the most in Northern Ontario; in 2018 they went up more than the provincial average (though not the most of any region), illustrating the trend that I've discussed on federal-themed threads here about that region beginning to trend towards the Tories after many years of being weak for them.


Looking at the two biggest blocs, the GTA and the rest, they break down thus:

GTA
PC - 41 MPPs (+4), 40.5% (+0.4%)
NDP - 10 MPPs (-5), 20.2% (-10.7%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 31.0% (+6.8%)

Rest of Ontario
PC - 42 MPPs (+3), 41.1% (+0.3%)
NDP - 21 MPPs (-4), 26.3% (-9.4%)
Lib - 4 MPPs, 18.6% (+2.6%)

[DistingFlyer]

Looking at the Tory gains, here's when they last won those ridings (or their nearest equivalents):

Brampton Centre - 1999
Brampton East - 1999 (as Bramalea - Gore - Malton - Springdale)
Brampton North - 1999 (as Brampton Centre)
Essex - 1959 (as Essex South)
Hamilton East - Stoney Creek - 1951 (as Wentworth)
Thunder Bay - Atikokan - 1985 (as Fort William)
Timmins - 1987 (as Cochrane South)
Windsor - Tecumseh - 1929 (as Essex North)
York South - Weston - 1951 (as York South)

Interesting. Taking note of adma's post When did the following ridings (or nearest equivalents) last go Tory provincially?
Niagara Falls
Niagara Centre
Nickel Belt
Timmins Cochrane
Algoma Manitoulin

Algoma - Manitoulin: one could say 1985 (the last time a riding of that name voted Tory), but a better answer might be 1971 (when they won both Algoma & Algoma - Manitoulin, which together account for most of the current riding)
Niagara Centre: 1971 (as Welland)
Niagara Falls: 1999
Nickel Belt: 1967
Timiskaming - Cochrane: 1981 (as two ridings: Timiskaming and Cochrane South)


Looking at Northern Ontario as a whole, the last time the Tories topped the polls there before 2022 was 1985 (when, I assume, Muskoka member Frank Miller being the party's leader helped them there, and their vote actually stayed the same as in 1981). That's still the last time they elected the most MPPs there, as the NDP stayed ahead in seats in 2022.

Other times they won the north were 1948 (albeit only 33.6% in a close three-way race), 1951 (43.4%, with the Liberals second), 1955 (46.8%), 1959 (42.2%), 1963 (44.0%), 1967 (40.6%, with the NDP back ahead of the Liberals for the first time since 1948), 1971 (40.7%), 1977 (42.8%) and 1981 (44.8%). They also nearly did so in 1995 (34.3% to the Liberals' 34.5%).

[DistingFlyer]

Dumb question.  Where I can I find the most up-to-date Ontario election results by riding and candidate?

I downloaded each riding from Elections Ontario, but Canadian Press seems to have more polls reporting (e.g. Burlington).  But CP is missing data for some minor party candidates.

Any suggestions?

Strange - the Elections Ontario figures were up-to-date yesterday (that is, each seat had all of its polls accounted for) but they don't seem to be now, although the links to the data are different.

My spreadsheet does have the riding information as complete as it can be right now (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=453425.msg8630731#msg8630731) though the minor parties (i.e. not PC, Liberal, NDP or Green) are all lumped into the 'other' column, which may not be what you want.

EDIT: Can also look here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16Yuhrvny4nC9oKoT-0lnAmS3Lhg1Qnm5/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=102460231885619043601&rtpof=true&sd=true); you can see the individual candidates' votes in the 'other' column, but not their party names.

Thank you very much.

In the second spreadsheet, it looks like Paul Miller's 2,411 votes in Hamilton East--Stoney Creek were missed.

Well spotted! Have fixed both files.

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Looking at Northern Ontario as a whole, the last time the Tories topped the polls there before 2022 was 1985 (when, I assume, Muskoka member Frank Miller being the party's leader helped them there, and their vote actually stayed the same as in 1981). That's still the last time they elected the most MPPs there, as the NDP stayed ahead in seats in 2022.

What also helped through '85 were strong long-term incumbents like Leo Bernier and Alan Pope, and the vestigial vote of others defeated that year.  Then they in their turn started to retire or be defeated in '87, and by '90 only Harris & Eves were left, while a lot of that erstwhile diehard Northern Tory vote defaulted to Confederation of Regions, who finished ahead of the PCs in 6 and nearly 7 seats.  Harris shifted the equilibrium back to the Tories in '95, but not enough to win because of the damage done over the previous decade...

Agreed - look at what happened in Cochrane South when Alan Pope retired: from 42% in 1987 to 4.2% in 1990.

[DistingFlyer]

Anyone have breakdown of how regions voted?

I was thinking for main regions

416 - Toronto
905 belt
Hamilton-Niagara
Central Ontario
Southwestern Ontario
Northern Ontario
Eastern Ontario

For sub-regions

Durham
York
Peel
Halton
Hamilton
Niagara
Waterloo
London
Essex County
Ottawa
Eastern Ontario outside Ottawa

I have figures for some of those:

Metro Toronto (416)
PC - 12 MPPs (+1), 32.2% (-0.6%)
NDP - 9 MPPs (-2), 27.9% (-8.6%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 31.9% (+5.7%)

Rest of GTA (905)
PC - 29 MPPs (+3), 46.8% (+1.1%)
NDP - 1 MPP (-3), 14.4% (-12.3%)
Lib - 30.3% (+7.6%)

Eastern
PC - 13 MPPs (-1), 41.2% (-1.4%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 26.8% (+3.7%)
NDP - 2 MPPs, 21.9% (-6.6%)

Northern
NDP - 7 MPPs (-1), 33.4% (-10.9%)
PC - 6 MPPs (+2), 40.5% (+8.3%)
Lib - 11.4% (-4.2%)

The Tory vote dropped the most in Eastern Ontario, as Ottawa continues to drift away from them and the New Blue & Ontario Parties took a bite out of their rural vote.

The Tory vote rose the most in Northern Ontario; in 2018 they went up more than the provincial average (though not the most of any region), illustrating the trend that I've discussed on federal-themed threads here about that region beginning to trend towards the Tories after many years of being weak for them.


Looking at the two biggest blocs, the GTA and the rest, they break down thus:

GTA
PC - 41 MPPs (+4), 40.5% (+0.4%)
NDP - 10 MPPs (-5), 20.2% (-10.7%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 31.0% (+6.8%)

Rest of Ontario
PC - 42 MPPs (+3), 41.1% (+0.3%)
NDP - 21 MPPs (-4), 26.3% (-9.4%)
Lib - 4 MPPs, 18.6% (+2.6%)

What was Southwestern Ontario?

I have figures for the west (which is roughly Southwest plus Hamilton-Niagara):

PC - 19 MPPs (+2), 40.2% (-0.3%)
NDP - 12 MPPs (-3), 28.9% (-10.4%)
GP - 1 MPP, 7.9% (+1.3%)
Lib - 14.5% (+2.6%)
Ind - 1 MPP

The Tory vote dropped a little here too (though not as much as in the east), which seems to be due to the two minor conservative parties denting their big rural majorities, as well as of course the independent win in Haldimand - Norfolk. The latter alone accounts for more than the entire drop - if the Tory vote had stayed the same in that riding, they'd have gotten 41% in this region.

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A number of newspapers & other outlets have tried to describe the size of the Tory win: number of seats, share of vote, size of majority, etc.

One way I like to look at it is by combining the number of members elected by each party and the average margin of victory of each party (or the average winning vote share); there are a couple methods for crunching the numbers, so I'll provide different figures for each election.

Method 1: multiply the number of MPPs for each party by the average numerical margin, then divide by the total number of MPPs and overall average margin
Method 2: same as above, but use percentage margin instead
Method 3: same as above, but use average winning vote share instead of average margin

These three methods don't usually produce very different results, but neither are they exactly the same; I won't list the figures produced by all three methods here, but instead just show the results from method 2 (percentage margin)

1934 - Lib 87.2%, Cons 7.4%, CCF 1.3%
1937 - Lib 89.0%, Cons 10.3% (the best Liberal figure no matter which method is used)
1943 - CCF 38.7%, PC 37.5%, Lib 20.7% (a different order of parties from the actual result; only method 3 produced same order as the legislature)
1945 - PC 82.0%, Lib 9.5%, CCF 5.7%
1948 - PC 68.2%, CCF 15.6%, Lib 12.9%
1951 - PC 93.1%, Lib 5.2%, CCF 1.0% (the Tories get the best result for any party no matter what method is used)
1955 - PC 92.3%, Lib 5.9%, CCF 1.8%
1959 - PC 82.3%, Lib 14.2%, CCF 3.5%
1963 - PC 86.6%, Lib 10.3%, NDP 3.2%
1967 - PC 73.3%, Lib 13.5%, NDP 13.2%
1971 - PC 76.1%, Lib 13.4%, NDP 10.6%
1975 - PC 35.8%, Lib 32.3%, NDP 31.9% (matches the popular vote order; only method 3 produces a result matching the seat order)
1977 - PC 47.3%, Lib 28.4%, NDP 24.2%
1981 - PC 66.3%, Lib 23.0%, NDP 10.7%
1985 - Lib 43.9%, PC 36.2%, NDP 19.9% (matches the popular vote order; all three methods produce this)
1987 - Lib 84.8%, NDP 11.8%, PC 3.3%
1990 - NDP 66.4%, Lib 20.9%, PC 12.7% (best NDP result, obviously)
1995 - PC 74.5%, Lib 17.6%, NDP 7.7%
1999 - PC 57.0%, Lib 35.6%, NDP 7.4%
2003 - Lib 79.5%, PC 13.3%, NDP 7.3%
2007 - Lib 70.1%, PC 20.8%, NDP 9.1%
2011 - Lib 43.5%, PC 41.3%, NDP 15.1% (method 1 gives the best result to the Tories)
2014 - Lib 54.3%, NDP 23.3%, PC 22.5% (methods 1 & 3 put the parties in the right order vis-a-vis actual seat & popular vote figures)
2018 - PC 61.7%, NDP 35.8%, Lib 1.5%
2022 - PC 73.2%, NDP 20.8%, Lib 4.2%

Note that minority governments (1943, 1975, 1977, 1985 & 2011) showed no party scoring above 50%.

[DistingFlyer]

Some shaded maps - as usual, for both the winners' margins & the winners' vote shares:






For comparison/contrast, here are ones for 2018:






And for 2014 (notional results):

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As the NDP & Liberals got almost identical vote shares provincewide, here's a map showing which party did better in each riding (no shading this time):



NDP ahead of the Liberals in 66 ridings, Liberals ahead of the NDP in 58.

[DistingFlyer]

My count is NDP 66, Lib 58.

If you toss in the Greens, the count would be NDP 65, Lib 57, Green 2.

Right you are - not sure how I mucked that up. Have fixed the original post.

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Ridings held by the Tories today where they came third in 2014 (11):

Brampton Centre (Lib 2014, NDP 2018, PC 2022)
Brampton East (NDP 2014 & 2018, PC 2022)
Brampton North (Lib 2014, NDP 2018, PC 2022)
Brampton West (Lib 2014, PC 2018 & 2022)
Etobicoke North (Lib 2014, PC 2018 & 2022)
Hamilton East – Stoney Creek (NDP 2014 & 2018, PC 2022)
Mississauga – Malton (Lib 2014, PC 2018 & 2022)
Sault Ste. Marie (Lib 2014, PC 2018 & 2022)
Thunder Bay – Atikokan (Lib 2014, NDP 2018, PC 2022)
Windsor – Tecumseh (NDP 2014 & 2018, PC 2022)
York South – Weston (Lib 2014, NDP 2018, PC 2022)


Ridings held by the Tories in 2014, but not today (1):

Haldimand – Norfolk (PC 2014 & 2018, Ind 2022)


Ridings held by the NDP today where they came third in 2014 (4):

Hamilton West – Ancaster – Dundas (Lib 2014, NDP 2018 & 2022)
Ottawa West – Nepean (Lib 2014, PC 2018, NDP 2022)
St. Catharines (Lib 2014, NDP 2018 & 2022)
Toronto – St. Paul’s (Lib 2014, NDP 2018 & 2022)


Ridings held by the NDP in 2014, but not today (5):

Brampton East (NDP 2014 & 2018, PC 2022)
Essex (NDP 2014 & 2018, PC 2022)
Hamilton East – Stoney Creek (NDP 2014 & 2018, PC 2022)
Timmins (NDP 2014 & 2018, PC 2022)
Windsor – Tecumseh (NDP 2014 & 2018, PC 2022)

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Elections Ontario has published the official poll-by-poll results for the 2022 provincial election for all 124 ridings.

https://www.elections.on.ca/en/resource-centre/elections-results.html#accordionResultsProcess

Good luck trying to find a summary.

And no party labels on the individual riding pages either.

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Elections Ontario has published the official poll-by-poll results for the 2022 provincial election for all 124 ridings.

https://www.elections.on.ca/en/resource-centre/elections-results.html#accordionResultsProcess

Good luck trying to find a summary.

Have updated the spreadsheet, but since Kiiwetinoong doesn't have an official count up yet I'll hold off before I update the uploaded version (or the maps).

Not much change, though it seems a couple thousand votes may have originally been put in the Oakville instead of Whitby by mistake (the Tory margin grew by about two thousand in the former, and shrank by about two thousand in the latter). Since they're on opposite sides of the 416 it seems a weird mistake, but computers have done worse.

Since there's no official summary count, here's what I have right now:

PC - 1,919,888
Lib - 1,124,050
NDP - 1,116,376
GP - 279,972
Other - 261,539
TOTAL - 4,701,825

If anyone has anything different please let me know & I'll check things over.

The un-updated Kiiwetinoong figures are 2743 NDP, 1424 PC, 283 Lib, 158 GP, 156 Other.