Saskatchewan election 2020

[DistingFlyer]

No polls in almost a year and so tough to know for sure where things are at, but it will be held on October 26, 2020.  Considering how unpopular Trudeau is in Saskatchewan and Moe's approval rating, I think smart money is on the Saskatchewan Party being re-elected.  Nonetheless I do think the NDP if they play their cards right has a chance to dominate the two main cities so I could easily see them getting over 20 seats, but Saskatchewan is much more rural than other provinces so you cannot form government by just winning cities.

Possibly; the last election saw a swing to the NDP in the urban ridings, and a swing away from them in the rural ones. The NDP brand has probably taken some damage from the Erin Weir affair and the federal leader's reaction to it, so I'd still be surprised if they made many gains. We shall see.

I should also add that, by sweeping the big cities and getting a token rural presence, the NDP did manage to squeak into government in 1999 & 2003. While dominating the cities isn't itself enough to win, it will get you pretty close (similar to neighboring Manitoba, I suppose, where the NDP's winning formula has been winning heavily in Winnipeg as well as the rural North). Prior to those elections, the NDP had done very well in provincial politics by keeping a strong rural presence as well as their urban base, though that seems to have disappeared over these last twenty years.

[DistingFlyer]

_{*Really bad stuff as well. Most of their leading figures, including ex-Premier Grant Devine, ended up in prison.}

Actually he didn't (and is generally considered not to have been part of the various schemes that went on), though Hopfner, MacLaren and others did. Worst of all, backbench MLA Jack Wolfe, who was definitely not a part of what had been happening, ended up committing suicide when it looked like he might get swept up in the charges anyway.

[DistingFlyer]

Might as well throw out a forecast . . .

SP - 40 (56%)
NDP - 21 (37%)

[DistingFlyer]

Meili has taken a lead of 200-odd in Meewasin now, bringing the NDP up to 12 MLAs. No other close seats have flipped so far.

[DistingFlyer]

Looking at the latest final tallies, here's a quick breakdown:

Saskatoon
SP: 8 (53.0%)
NDP: 6 (43.7%)
3.9% swing to NDP

Regina
SP: 7 (47.3%)
NDP: 5 (45.9%)
2.4% swing to NDP

'Urban' (incl. Saskatoon, Regina, Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Swift Current, The Battlefords & Yorkton)
SP: 22 (52.8%)
NDP: 11 (42.4%)
2.4% swing to NDP

'Rural' (everywhere else)
SP: 26 (71.4%)
NDP: 2 (18.7%)
0.1% swing to SP

The 2007 & 2011 elections saw a narrowing of the urban-rural divide: 2007 recorded a swing of 10.1% towards the Sask Party in the cities/big towns & a 9.7% swing in the rural areas, while 2011 recorded a swing of 11.3% in urban areas & 6.8% in rural ones.

The last two elections have seen it widen again: 2016 had a 2.3% NDP urban swing & a 2.6% SP rural swing, while 2020 has seen a 2.4% NDP urban swing & a 0.1% SP rural swing (and that's even with the Buffalo candidates taking 5.6% of the rural vote).

This is one reason why the NDP has managed to make small gains in the last two elections despite virtually neutral provincewide swings (0.0% in 2016 & 1.5% this time): the only marginals left are in the cities, and that's where the swing is greatest. It's not uniform across Regina & Saskatoon, of course, as some suburban ridings have recorded increased Sask Party majorities in 2016 &/or 2020.

NOTE: Have edited the above figures as counting has progressed; now current to 30 Oct 7 Nov.

[DistingFlyer]

A few more stats:

Sask Party
Average Majority (num): 2953 (highest ever)
Average Majority (%): 39.3% (lower than 2016, higher than other years)
Largest Majority (num): 5328 in Wood River (lower than 2011-2016, higher than other years)
Largest Majority (%): 71.1% in Lloydminster (lower than 2016, higher than other years)
Average Vote (%): 66.3% (lower than 2011-2016, higher than other years)
Largest Vote (%): 82.8% in Wood River (lower than 2011-2016, higher than other years)
% of Constituencies won by >25%: 36 (one fewer than 2016, more than other years)

NDP
Average Majority (num): 1184 (higher than 2011-2016, lower than every other election since 1982)
Average Majority (%): 20.5% (higher than 2007-2016, lower than every other election since 1982)
Largest Majority (num): 2545 in Regina Lakeview (highest since 2003)
Largest Majority (%): 35.8% in Cumberland (higher than 2011, lower than every other election from 1971 on)
Average Vote (%): 57.8% (highest ever)
Largest Vote (%): 66.5% in Cumberland (highest since 2003)
% of Constituencies won by >25%: 5 (highest since 2007)


NOTE: Have edited the above figures as counting has progressed; now current to 30 Oct 7 Nov.

[DistingFlyer]

Looking at the latest tallies, here's a quick breakdown:

Saskatoon
SP: 8 (54.2%)
NDP: 6 (42.2%)
2.6% swing to NDP

Regina
SP: 7 (47.8%)
NDP: 5 (45.1%)
1.8% swing to NDP

'Urban' (incl. Saskatoon, Regina, Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Swift Current & Yorkton)
SP: 22 (53.8%)
NDP: 11 (41.3%)
1.4% swing to NDP

'Rural' (everywhere else)
SP: 26 (71.7%)
NDP: 2 (18.3%)
0.4% swing to SP

The 2007 & 2011 elections saw a narrowing of the urban-rural divide: 2007 recorded a swing of 10.1% towards the Sask Party in the cities/big towns & a 9.7% swing in the rural areas, while 2011 recorded a swing of 11.3% in urban areas & 6.8% in rural ones.

The last two elections have seen it widen again: 2016 had a 2.3% NDP urban swing & a 2.6% SP rural swing, while 2020 has seen (so far) a 1.4% NDP urban swing & a 0.4% SP rural swing (and that's even with the Buffalo candidates taking 5.6% of the rural vote).

This is one reason why the NDP has managed to make small gains in the last two elections despite virtually neutral provincewide swings (0.0% in 2016 & 0.4% this time): the only marginals left are in the cities, and that's where the swing is greatest. It's not uniform across Regina & Saskatoon, of course, as some suburban ridings have recorded increased Sask Party majorities in 2016 &/or 2020.

I like that you list Saskatoon and Regina results, and then list urban being 22-11, when Regina/Saskatoon combined is 15-11. So what's the swing in the Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Swift Current, and Yorkton seats the Saskatchewan Party had a 7-0 sweep in?

1.7% towards the Sask Party, with one seat gained (their only one of the night). A slightly bigger swing than even in the rural areas, though the lack of any Buffalo candidates in any of those seven ridings probably accounts for this. (Incidentally, I also forgot to mention The Battlefords in the above list, which I also included in the urban total. Will fix on the earlier post.)

[DistingFlyer]

Looking back to 1999, the first election contested by the Sask Party, here's how the rural-urban divide went:

1999 (Urban)
NDP - 26 (46.8%)
Lib - 2 (22.3%)
SP - 1 (28.4%)

1999 (Rural)
SP - 24 (50.3%)
NDP - 3 (31.1%)
Lib - 2 (18.1%)


2003 (Urban)
NDP - 26 (52.1%)
SP - 4 (29.4%)
2.2% swing to the NDP

2003 (Rural)
SP - 24 (50.5%)
NDP - 4 (36.3%)
2.5% swing to the NDP


2007 (Urban)
NDP - 18 (44.0%)
SP - 12 (41.4%)
10.1% swing to the SP

2007 (Rural)
SP - 26 (62.6%)
NDP - 2 (28.9%)
9.7% swing to the SP


2011 (Urban)
SP - 23 (57.9%)
NDP - 7 (37.9%)
11.3% swing to the SP

2011 (Rural)
SP - 26 (72.0%)
NDP - 2 (24.7%)
6.8% swing to the SP


2016 (Urban)
SP - 25 (54.4%)
NDP - 8 (39.1%)
2.3% swing to the NDP

2016 (Rural)
SP - 26 (72.2%)
NDP - 2 (19.7%)
2.6% swing to the SP


2020 (Urban) (provisional)
SP - 22 (53.7%)
NDP - 11 (41.5%)
1.5% swing to the NDP

2020 (Rural) (provisional)
SP - 26 (71.7%)
NDP - 2 (18.3%)
0.4% swing to the SP


The narrowing of the gap from 2003 through 2011 (an accumulated 5.2% swing differential) was wiped out in 2016 (4.9% back again) and has widened this time too (1.8%).

[DistingFlyer]

Now that the count's complete, have updated the statistical breakdowns on previous pages

Have also updated the pdf file for Saskatchewan elections in the Drive folder (https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Pa-73KSfj_nmezJ0WKTKrjlDW6RFUJJR) (will also do the same for BC once the count in Fairview is finished).