UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[DistingFlyer]

Not much to say about the results, other than I expected it (even a slightly larger Conservative majority).

Weird that turnout was just 67% and dropping compared with 2017.

You should probably never go with the stupid Election Day reports of „long lines“ ...

With significantly higher turnout there probably would have been a hung parliament again, because no suppressed Labour vote.

That’s not how things work ...

With a higher turnout, th Conservatives could have also won by an even bigger margin.

In recent years, former SD voters have started to vote Conservative, as they are no longer „workers“ anymore, but have moved into white-collar professions ...

Unlikely when you look at the seats which had the biggest turnout drops.

Indeed there is a pattern forming here:

2015, 2019 - voting levels fail to live up to the hype on the day, and the Tories win;

2010, 2017 - turnout is "higher than expected" and there is a "surprise" hung parliament.

Based on that sequence.......

Adding to that, where turnout actually rose Labour did well, Putney being the emblematic example. Whereas the real story in the North etc was less that loads of people suddenly decided to vote Conservative, but the Labour vote fell of a cliff - mostly because their voters stayed home.

Turnout hasn't often borne much correlation to how well Tories or Labour do - for instance, turnout was consistently higher during the Thatcher & Major years than the Blair-Brown ones. It also - before the more recent elections - tended to be higher in Conservative seats than in Labour areas, and the highest-turnout election in modern times (1992) saw the Tories - not Labour - do much better than polls expected.

How would those Labour voters who stayed home in previously loyal constituencies have voted? No way to know, of course, but the idea that Labour was defeated by low turnout or 'suppressed votes' (who exactly was doing the suppressing?) I just don't find believable. Certainly the opinion polls pointed almost exactly to yesterday's outcome, so it seems unlikely that turnout rates disproportionately benefited one side or the other.

[DistingFlyer]

Here's a map showing regional swings:



Almost 1979 in reverse - the swing gets bigger the further from London you go (except in Scotland).

To compare, here are the regional swings for 2017 (somewhat similar to 1992):




The swing recorded yesterday in Great Britain was 4.6% - a little less than that of 1970 or 1979, but the biggest in modern times towards an incumbent government (exceeding the 4.1% in 1983).

Additionally, the Tories got 54.1% of the Midlands vote; this is not only their highest since 1935, but the first time they've gotten a higher vote in the Midlands than the South (48.7%), though the southern Tory vote outside of London is still a little higher (54.6%). The 4.3% rise in the Midlands was also the biggest increase they got in any region.

As in 2017, the Tory vote fell in London, from 33.1% to 32.0%. It only rose a small amount in the rest of the South (53.7% to 54.6%), resulting in an almost identical share across the whole South (48.3% to 48.7%).

Where it fell the most was in Scotland - 28.6% to 25.1%, costing them a lot of seats to the SNP, who rose from 36.9% to 45.0%.

[DistingFlyer]

Those aren't the official regions, are they? In most maps I've seen there's a separate Northeast (the historical Northumberland and Durham) and Northwest (the historical Cheshire, Lancashire, Westmorland, and Cumberland), and the East Anglia region also includes Essex and the northern Home Counties.

They're what you might call the 'old regions,' which is how the country used to be divided; I've kept using them as a way to offer consistency when looking back over many elections. East Anglia is used instead of East of England, and North instead of Northeast.

[DistingFlyer]

County Durham (2005-2019):

2005 - Lab 56.3%, Lib Dem 21.3%, Cons 16.6%
2010 - Lab 45.3%, Lib Dem 24.1%, Cons 21.4%
2015 - Lab 48.5%, Cons 25.4%, UKIP 15.7%, Lib Dem 6.0%
2017 - Lab 54.6%, Cons 35.3%, Lib Dem 4.5%, UKIP 3.4%
2019 - Cons 40.6%, Lab 40.4%, BRX 8.4%, Lib Dem 7.0%

Tories below 20% in 2005, third place until 2015 - a 24% rise overall (and from zero MPs to four of seven)

[DistingFlyer]

Biggest swings in each direction:

Labour to Conservative - Bassetlaw (18.4%)
Conservative to Labour - Bradford West (6.5%)

Conservative to Liberal Democrat - Esher & Walton (18.5%)
Liberal Democrat to Conservative - North Norfolk (17.5%)

Labour to Liberal Democrat - Streatham (17.5%)
Liberal Democrat to Labour - Bermondsey & Old Southwark (2.7%)

Conservative to SNP - Edinburgh South West (10.4%)
SNP to Conservative - Banff & Buchan (0.4%)

Labour to SNP - Glenrothes (10.1%)

Liberal Democrat to SNP - East Dunbartonshire (5.3%)
SNP to Liberal Democrat - North East Fife (1.4%)

PC to Conservative - Carmarthen East & Dinefwr (4.3%)

Labour to Brexit - Barnsley Central (22.8%)

Labour to Green - Dulwich & West Norwood (9.1%)

[DistingFlyer]

Here's a a map showing the margins for Remain or Leave in the 2016 vote:



And here (again) are the regional swings in Thursday's vote:




Not that anyone has disputed the connection between these two things, of course - just another piece of visual confirmation.

[DistingFlyer]

Constituency-wide swings:




Again, a pretty good correlation to how they voted in the referendum three years ago - note that the only Scottish constituency estimated to have voted 'Leave' is also the only one to record a pro-Tory swing.

[DistingFlyer]

Here are the constituencies shaded by margin:




And here they are shaded by the winners' percentage of the vote:




The safest Labour seat was - for the fourth time running - Liverpool Walton, won by 74.8% (slightly down from 77.1% last time, but otherwise the best 'best result' Labour has had since 1979); twenty-four Labour constituencies were won by margins greater than 50% (down from thirty-four last time; their all-time high was, predictably, sixty-six in 1997)

The safest Tory seat was South Holland & the Deepings, won by 62.7% (the best 'best result' they've had since 1964, or since 1955 if you don't count Northern Irish seats); thirteen Tory seats were won by more than 50% (the most since 1935; the previous post-War highs were 1955 & 1959, with ten apiece)

The safest Liberal seat was Bath, won by 23.6% - the first time in living memory that their safest seat was in the South, and the second time it was in England (Westmorland & Lonsdale took the top prize in 2015); it's otherwise been in Scotland or Wales, including Orkney & Zetland eight times in a row from 1955 through 1979

The safest Nationalist constituency was Aberdeen North, won by 33.9% (in comparison, Dundee East was taken by 39.8% in 2015)

[DistingFlyer]

Liverpool Walton voted for Brexit, yet the swings in Liverpool and surrounding areas was much less to the conservatives than in similar seats in the north east, or the red wall.

Birmingham as a whole narrowly voted Leave (50%), but saw relatively small swings to the Tories (especially in comparison to the Black Country right next door).

Liverpool as a whole voted 58% to remain, so the weak swings there are a little more predictable; in general, cities that Labour's dominated only in the last few decades (Leeds, Birmingham, etc.) have shuffled back at a much slower pace than the longtime Labour strongholds (Barnsley, Sheffield, Hull, Black Country, mining seats, etc.). Certainly Liverpool doesn't seem very keen to forgive the Tories for the tough times of the 1980s.

The Northwest as a whole still gave a bigger lead to Labour this time (12.6%) than in 2010 (9.1%) - only London can also make that claim.

[DistingFlyer]

London's drift away from the Conservatives:

1945 - Tories behind 8.4% nationally & 14.0% in London (-5.6%)
1950 - behind 2.7% nationally & 2.9% in London (-0.2%)
1951 - behind 0.8% nationally & 2.0% in London (-1.2%)
1955 - ahead 3.4% nationally & 2.1% in London (-1.3%)
1959 - ahead 5.5% nationally & 6.6% in London (+1.1%)
1964 - behind 0.7% nationally & 1.5% in London (-0.8%)
1966 - ahead 6.2% nationally & 7.4% in London (-1.2%)
1970 - ahead 3.3% nationally & 1.6% in London (-1.7%)
Feb 1974 - ahead 0.7% nationally, behind 2.9% in London (-3.6%)
Oct 1974 - behind 3.5% nationally & 6.6% in London (-3.1%)
1979 - ahead 7.1% nationally & 6.4% in London (-0.7%)
1983 - ahead 15.2% nationally & 14.0% in London (-1.2%)
1987 - ahead 11.7% nationally & 15.0% in London (+3.3%)
1992 - ahead 7.6% nationally & 8.3% in London (+0.7%)
1997 - behind 13.0% nationally & 18.3% in London (-5.3%)
2001 - behind 9.3% nationally & 16.9% in London (-7.6%)
2005 - behind 3.0% nationally & 8.0% in London (-5.0%)
2010 - ahead 7.3% nationally, behind 2.1% in London (-9.4%)
2015 - ahead 6.6% nationally, behind 8.8% in London (-15.4%)
2017 - ahead 2.5% nationally, behind 21.4% in London (-23.9%)
2019 - ahead 11.7% nationally, behind 16.1% in London (-27.8%)

(1945 through 1970 figures are estimates, as the constituency borders don't match those of Greater London)

[DistingFlyer]

Overall regional lead figures:

North - Tories trail by 4% (best since 1959)
Midlands - Tories ahead by 22% (best since 1931)
London - Tories trail by 16% (better than 2017, but not much else)
rest of South - Tories lead by 31% (best since 1931)
Wales - Tories trail by 5% (best since 1859)
Scotland - Tories trail by 20% (worse than 2017, but best showing vis-a-vis Labour (6.5% lead) since 1935)

[DistingFlyer]

Overall regional lead figures:

North - Tories trail by 4% (best since 1959)
Midlands - Tories ahead by 22% (best since 1931)
London - Tories trail by 16% (better than 2017, but not much else)
rest of South - Tories lead by 31% (best since 1931)
Wales - Tories trail by 5% (best since 1859)
Scotland - Tories trail by 20% (worse than 2017, but best showing vis-a-vis Labour (6.5% lead) since 1935)

Despite all those "best since the 1930s", the overall Tory lead over Labour in 1983 was significantly bigger than now (and 1987 was almost identical) And of course the seat majority is smaller than both.

Quite true; the Tory showing in London is much worse now than in the 1980s (or indeed than almost any time except the 1990s & 2010s), and their southern results, in terms of seats if not votes, are worse too. My point was that they compensated for that by exceeding Margaret Thatcher's results in other areas.

[DistingFlyer]

Notice how most of these seats are in the South, particularly Metropolitan London. Sure, a few of the Labour heartland seats could have been saved with a progressive coalition, but on the whole, the easiest seats to win are in the South. Furthermore, trends towards the progressive parties in the South have been particularly dramatic, with many constituencies in Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Hertfordshire, and Surrey swinging 20+ points towards the progressives since 2015. This is where the election will be won in 2024, and that's part of why I think someone like Sadiq Khan should lead Labour going forward. Applying 2015-19 trends again coupled with a full progressive party pact, in 2024, these flips occur basically no matter what:


All of these seats flip with a progressive coalition and trends, even if the Conservative coalition wins the popular vote by 5+ points. Again, the vast majority are in the South, and the North remains mostly out of reach. Of course, they'll be offset by a few inevitable flips in Wales and Northern England (perhaps the Welsh Valleys will finally go), but in these places, Labour is mostly constrained to the big cities and has far fewer vulnerable seats than these ones. Besides, after that, there are still more competitive seats:


Obviously, these figures are a bit crude, but there are two clear takeaways: there needs to be a progressive coalition and 2024 will be won in the traditionally Conservative South. What this means now, is that the Greens, Lib Dems, and Labour need to reach some consensus on a unifying, center-left message which is pro-immigrant, pro-Europe, pro-environment, pro-working and middle class but not anti-business; and consistently hammer the Conservatives on the same talking points. Regardless, trying to win back the small-town postindustrial North isn't going to work.

I've said it before; London & the South appear to be going the way of Ontario in 1962-3. (Scotland has certainly started behaving like Quebec post-1993). In two decades, will the North & Midlands be blue while London & the Home Counties are red & yellow? Obviously one can't say for certain, but it does look possible.

This may be a good long-term plan for Labour & the Liberals, since it's the southern commuter regions (though not London) that are growing the fastest, while the North has generally been losing seats at every reapportionment. Future redistributions may therefore end up helping Labour for the first time.

If that does happen ('Surrey Man' becomes Liberal/Labour while Workington & Essex Men stay Tory), we can also expect the class distinctions Labour has tended to draw ('rich Surrey brokers' vs. 'honest northern workers') to disappear too, in favor of the kind of language we've seen in Canada since the 1960s, and in the US since the 1980s/90s ('sophisticated' vs. not).

As for a progressive vs. conservative coalition, there's enough disagreement between the Liberal & Labour parties (not to mention the Greens & nationalists) that a formal pact isn't very likely, and even if it did happen they'd bleed some voters (either towards someone else or just into abstaining).

[DistingFlyer]

A couple of interesting facts I found by randomly looking at results

1) Neale Hanvey was the SNP candidate for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath but disowned him when it came out that he had made anti-semitic social media posts in the past.  But but it was too late to remove him from the ballot but SNP called on their supporters not to support Neale Hanvey.  Neale Hanvey ended up winning seat narrowly and capturing the seat from LAB.  So this is sort of a anti-signal on how important the anti-semitic issue really is.

Yes, that whole question seemed largely to be a focus of political & media types rather than in the country at large (though that's not to say it wasn't noticed by other people, or that it shouldn't have been or was unimportant).

I would say, however, that the swing toward Mr. Hanvey (1.6%) was much smaller than what was recorded in the neighboring seats (9.2% in Dunfermline, 10.1% in Glenrothes), so all this probably did affect him - it was just his luck that he only needed to overturn a Labour margin of 259 in a seat that had gone SNP by nearly ten thousand in 2015.

[DistingFlyer]

A lot will depend on who leads the Liberals & Labour, and how the parties pitch themselves to the voters - if one (or both) goes for a US Democratic-style approach, they might be able to win over Southern business types. Certainly they were able to make a few inroads there in the 1990s by using those methods, and if the Tories' popularity plunges again they may do even better this time because of Brexit. This election, the angry-student-radical stereotype that followed Labour doomed them in both their old heartland and the southern stockbroker belt, and if they elect a similar leader and keep up a similar image they won't do well in either area again.

Two big questions:
1) Will pro-Brexit, former Labour voters in the North & Midlands stay Conservative even after Britain has left the EU?; and
2) Will pro-remain, former Conservatives in London & the Home Counties stay Liberal & Labour?

If the answer to both is 'Yes,' then we've seen the first big political realignment in Britain in many decades (arguably the biggest since social class, rather than religion, became the biggest factor in political allegiance) and the beginning of a similar voting pattern to Canada or the US.

If it's 'No' to both, then this is just temporary and we'll be going back to the old norm within 10-15 years. (In spite of others' comments, I think this is the least likely answer but we shall see.)

If it's 'Yes' to one and 'No' to the other, then either the Tories or Labour/Liberal are in serious trouble - if a big part of their base is gone without a new bloc of voters to compensate, then future victories will be very difficult.

A lot will depend on how well the EU departure goes: if the rosy forecasts of Leavers are born out, then it will be 'Yes' to #1 and 'No' to #2, leaving Labour in near-permanent opposition. If the doomsday forecasts of Remainers are correct, then it will be 'No' to #1 and 'Yes' to #2, leaving the Tories hobbled. If things are in between, then it will be 'Yes' or 'No' to both.

The old voting patterns in Britain have proved remarkably durable over the years, holding up reasonably well even while other nations have abandoned them. Certainly it would take something very big to shake them up, and it's understandable not to believe that it may finally be happening, but the EU may finally be what does it (though if it doesn't, then maybe nothing will). Perhaps it's my North American perspective clouding my judgment here, and I'm seeing an emergence of our voting patterns in Britain just because that's what I'm used to seeing around me, but then again I (and others, of course!) may be correct this time.

[DistingFlyer]

Overall majority & vote share figures:

Conservatives
Average Majority: 13957 (highest ever)
Largest Majority: 32565 in Sleaford & North Hykeham (largest since 1992)
Average Majority (%): 26.7% (highest since 1931)
Largest Majority (%): 62.7% in South Holland & The Deepings (largest since 1964)
Average Vote %: 56.3% (highest since 1959)
Largest Vote %: 76.7% in Castle Point (highest since 1966)
Constituencies won by >25%: 206 (most since 1931)

Labour
Average Majority: 11983 (lower than 2017, but higher than 2001-2015)
Largest Majority: 39942 in Knowsley (lower than 2017, but higher than any previous to that)
Average Majority (%): 25.3% (lower than 2017, but higher than 2005-2015)
Largest Majority (%): 74.8% in Liverpool Walton (lower than 2017, but higher than 1983-2015)
Average Vote %: 54.0% (lower than 2017, but higher than 2005-2015)
Largest Vote %: 84.7% in Liverpool Walton (lower than 2017, but higher than 1983-2015)
Constituencies won by >25%: 86 (fewer than 2015-2017)

Liberal Democrat
Average Majority: 6333 (highest since 1955)
Largest Majority: 14121 in Twickenham (highest since 2010)
Average Majority (%): 11.4% (highest since 2010)
Largest Majority (%): 23.6% in Bath (highest since 2010)
Average Vote %: 48.4% (largest since 1959)
Largest Vote %: 56.1% in Twickenham (largest since 2010)
Constituencies won by >25%: zero (last happened in 2010)

Nationalist
Average Majority: 7476 (less than 2015, but highest otherwise)
Largest Majority: 14948 in Falkirk (see above remarks)
Average Majority (%): 16.3% (less than 2015, but higher than 2001-2010)
Largest Majority (%): 33.9% in Aberdeen North (highest since 2015)
Average Vote %: 46.5% (less than 2015, but higher than 1983-2010)
Largest Vote %: 54.0% in Aberdeen North (highest since 2015)
Constituencies won by >25%: 7 (fewer than 2015, but most otherwise)

Overall
Average Majority: 12666 (highest since 1931)
Average Majority (%): 25.1% (see above remarks)
Average Vote %: 54.6% (less than 2015, but higher than 1974-2010)
Constituencies won by >25%: 304 (exactly the same as 2017, and apart from 2015, the most since 1931)

[DistingFlyer]

To compare/contrast, here are figures for 1987 & 1997.

1987 first:

Conservatives
Average Majority: 11410 (more than 1983, less than 1979)
Largest Majority: 27044 in Huntingdon (see above remarks)
Average Majority (%): 21.1% (see above remarks again)
Largest Majority (%): 46.6% in Chelsea (see above remarks yet again)
Average Vote %: 52.0% (see above remarks one more time)
Largest Vote %: 66.0% in Beaconsfield (lower than 1983)
Constituencies won by >25%: 157 (most since 1935)

Labour
Average Majority: 10621 (highest ever, believe it or not - not surpassed until 1997)
Largest Majority: 30596 in Rhondda (higher than 1983, lower than 1979)
Average Majority (%): 24.3% (highest since 1966)
Largest Majority (%): 64.4% in Blaenau Gwent (higher than 1983, lower than 1979)
Average Vote %: 52.6% (see above remarks)
Largest Vote %: 75.9% in Blaenau Gwent (see above remarks again)
Constituencies won by >25%: 101 (most since 1974)

Liberal-SDP Alliance
Average Majority: 4497 (higher than 1983, lower than 1979)
Largest Majority: 11319 in Ross, Cromarty & Skye (highest since 1931)
Average Majority (%): 11.7% (higher than 1983, lower than 1979)
Largest Majority (%): 36.9% in Caithness & Sutherland (highest since 1974)
Average Vote %: 45.0% (lowest since 1974)
Largest Vote %: 53.6% in Caithness & Sutherland (lowest since 1970)
Constituencies won by >25%: 2 (same as 1983)

Overall
Average Majority: 10820 (highest since 1931)
Average Majority (%): 21.9% (highest since 1935)
Average Vote %: 51.9% (higher than 1983, lower than 1979)
Constituencies won by >25%: 270 (most since 1931)


Now here's 1997:

Conservatives
Average Majority: 6593 (lowest since 1966)
Largest Majority: 18140 in Huntingdon (lowest since 1923)
Average Majority (%): 12.6% (lowest since 1910)
Largest Majority (%): 31.8% in Huntingdon (lowest since at least 1885 - probably ever)
Average Vote %: 44.5% (see above remarks)
Largest Vote %: 55.3% in Huntingdon (see above remarks again)
Constituencies won by >25%: 12 (see above remarks again)

Labour
Average Majority: 13263 (highest ever - surpassed in 2017)
Largest Majority: 30708 in Knowsley South (highest since 1974, but only just barely)
Average Majority (%): 30.6% (highest ever, and highest for any party since 1931 - still the case in both respects)
Largest Majority (%): 74.4% in Bootle (highest since 1979)
Average Vote %: 56.9% (highest since 1970)
Largest Vote %: 82.9% in Bootle (highest since 1979)
Constituencies won by >25%: 257 (most ever, and most for any party since 1931 - still the case in both respects)

Liberal Democrats
Average Majority: 5223 (highest since Feb 1974)
Largest Majority: 13847 in North Cornwall (highest since 1931)
Average Majority (%): 11.2% (higher than 1992, but lower than 1979-1987)
Largest Majority (%): 33.7% in Orkney & Shetland (higher than 1992, lower than 1987)
Average Vote %: 44.2% (lowest since Oct 1974)
Largest Vote %: 54.5% in Hazel Grove (lower than 1992, higher than 1987)
Constituencies won by >25%: 1 (same as 1992)

Overall
Average Majority: 10861 (highest since 1931 - just barely (see 1987))
Average Majority (%): 24.4% (highest since 1931)
Average Vote %: 52.6% (highest since 1979 - barely (1992 was 52.5%))
Constituencies won by >25%: 277 (most since 1931)

Note that 257 of 277 safe seats (>25% margins) were won by Labour.

[DistingFlyer]

Looking at 'ultra-safe' seats (won by >50%), here are how things looked in 1987, 1997 & 2019:

1987 - 21 Labour (most since 1966), 4 Northern Irish
1997 - 66 Labour (most ever, and most for any party since 1931)
2019 - 24 Labour (fewer than 2017, but more than 2005-2015), 13 Conservatives (most since 1935)

Since 1923, Labour has never failed to win at least one constituency by >50% - even in 1983 they got three - but it's very rare for other parties to do so: post-War, the Liberals have done it in 1945 & 1997 (one apiece), and while the Tories did it in every election from 1924 through 1970 (and every election from 1886 through 1922 as well), since then they've only done it in 1979 (just one), 2015 (four) and 2019 (thirteen).


Note as well the seat with the highest Tory vote in 2019 (and indeed the highest since 1966): Castle Point, a constituency narrowly won by Labour in 1997.

[DistingFlyer]

Before the election there was some discussion about whether or not Boris Johnson was at risk in his own seat; he held it, of course, but his margin is the narrowest for a winning Prime Minister in a long time:

1931 - Ramsay Macdonald wins Seaham by 5951 (11.3%) - he lost it, heavily, in 1935
1935 - Stanley Baldwin wins Bewdley by acclamation
1945 - Clement Attlee wins Limehouse by 6780 (67.7%)
1950 - Clement Attlee wins Walthamstow West by 12107 (34.7%)
1951 - Winston Churchill wins Woodford by 18579 (28.6%)
1955 - Sir Anthony Eden wins Warwick & Leamington by 13466 (29.0%)
1959 - Harold Macmillan wins Bromley by 15454 (40.0%)
1964 - Harold Wilson wins Huyton by 19273 (29.2%)
1966 - Harold Wilson wins Huyton by 20950 (33.8%)
1970 - Ted Heath wins Bexley by 8058 (15.8%)
Feb 1974 - Harold Wilson wins Huyton by 15305 (27.3%)
Oct 1974 - Harold Wilson wins Huyton by 16233 (31.1%)
1979 - Margaret Thatcher wins Finchley by 7878 (19.8%)
1983 - Margaret Thatcher wins Finchley by 9314 (24.2%)
1987 - Margaret Thatcher wins Finchley by 8913 (22.2%)
1992 - John Major wins Huntingdon by 36230 (49.3%) - the only time a victorious PM also held his party's safest seat
1997 - Tony Blair wins Sedgefield by 25143 (53.4%)
2001 - Tony Blair wins Sedgefield by 17713 (44.0%)
2005 - Tony Blair wins Sedgefield by 18449 (44.5%)
2010 - David Cameron wins Witney by 22740 (39.4%)
2015 - David Cameron wins Witney by 25155 (43.0%)
2017 - Theresa May wins Maidenhead by 26457 (45.4%)
2019 - Boris Johnson wins Uxbridge & South Ruislip by 7210 (15.0%)

Note that the only instance, post-1945, of a winning leader holding his seat by anything like as narrow a margin as Johnson held his was Ted Heath in 1970 (who was also rumored, during the campaign, to be at risk of personal defeat). A bit of irony there, I suppose . . .

[DistingFlyer]

Interesting that Attlee '45 has the largest margin of victory there by percentage but the smallest by vote total. Was London horrendously malapportioned by 1945, did the East End have beyond-abysmal turnout at the time, or both?

The last redistribution was in 1918; this, combined with the wartime movement of people out of London and into the surrounding areas, meant that a lot of seats like his had tiny electorates by 1945. This proved to be a help for Labour in that election, of course: those old strongholds remained unchanged in terms of boundaries, while surrounding seats now had lots of Labour voters living in them.

In general, the best election for Labour is the one right before redistribution - Tories tend to do well in prosperous, fast-growing places, so they usually gain seats each time while Labour lose them. The more time passes after redistribution, the greater Labour's advantage, astheir core seats tend to stagnate or even shrink, while the Tories' heartlands swell - look at the huge majority for John Major in 1992, the last election held on the 1983 boundaries.

[DistingFlyer]

Interesting that Attlee '45 has the largest margin of victory there by percentage but the smallest by vote total. Was London horrendously malapportioned by 1945, did the East End have beyond-abysmal turnout at the time, or both?

The last redistribution was in 1918; this, combined with the wartime movement of people out of London and into the surrounding areas, meant that a lot of seats like his had tiny electorates by 1945. This proved to be a help for Labour in that election, of course: those old strongholds remained unchanged in terms of boundaries, while surrounding seats now had lots of Labour voters living in them.

In general, the best election for Labour is the one right before redistribution - Tories tend to do well in prosperous, fast-growing places, so they usually gain seats each time while Labour lose them. The more time passes after redistribution, the greater Labour's advantage, astheir core seats tend to stagnate or even shrink, while the Tories' heartlands swell - look at the huge majority for John Major in 1992, the last election held on the 1983 boundaries.

I'm confused. If 1992 was the last election held on the 1983 boundaries, shouldn't the map have favored Kinnock rather than Major going by this?

It favored Labour; the Tory strongholds had such huge electorates that vast numbers of votes were being used up in them with no gain in seats. Note that the national Tory lead (7.6%) was very similar to 1979 (7.1%), but with a much smaller majority (336 seats vice a notional 359 on the 1983 boundaries).

Looking at John Major's seat of Huntingdon, the 1979 notional result showed 54,189 votes cast (32,601 for Major). Fast forward to 1992 and there are 73,554 cast there - 48,662 for Major. Percentage-wise, that's only a six-point increase (60.2% to 66.2%), but it's 16,000 more votes for Major that pad his majority but don't help the Tories in other seats.

The average Tory constituency in 1983 had 49,742 votes cast, while the average Labour one had 43,283. Look at 1992 and it's 57,142 in the average Tory seat and 45,859 in the average Labour seat.

[DistingFlyer]

Labour has a long road ahead of them; they are 124 seats away from a majority. It's just a guess, but I don't think even a 10 pt uniform swing would get them 124. Their loss of Scotland makes things even harder; even in 2010, Labour had 217 seats outside Scotland; today Labour has 201. Barring a Scotland rebound, they would need to gain 124 in England and Wales alone...

Meanwhile, as an election nerd, I hope Johnson's gov't adopts the 600 seat redistribution; it would be cool to see new maps, especially for more even apportionment.

The next redistribution will also probably widen the gap in seats between the Tories & Labour, making Labour's task even harder.

Looking purely at Conservative seats, Labour would need a 13.1% swing to take 123 of them (the 123rd being North East Somerset). I'm sure on a big swing like that they'd also pick up a lot of SNP seats too, but even if we reduce the number to 90 Tory seats required it's still an 8.6% swing needed to win Camborne & Redruth.

Almost a reversal now of the Blair years, where it was estimated that the Tories would need at least a 9% lead over Labour to win an overall majority in 2001 & 2005.

On the other hand, if it's just a question of depriving the Tories of their majority it's not so difficult a task: their fortieth most marginal seat (against all parties) is Stroud, with only a 2.9% swing needed for it to be lost.

[DistingFlyer]

It's pretty interesting how close the Labour + Lib dem vote total was to the conservatives, the Tories got 13,966,565 votes and Labour + Lib dems got 13,965,152. The Tories ended up with 1,413 more votes.

You actually have to go back to 1955 to find the last time the Tories outpolled the combined Liberal & Labour vote (in that case, 49.7%-46.4%-2.7%).

[DistingFlyer]

Here are the cumulative 2017-2019 regional swings - a somewhat better correlation than just 2019 to the Leave/Remain vote, with 2017's big Labour swing in London being cut back a little last week.

The only outlier is - obviously - Scotland, but given that the Tories started as a poor third with just 15% of the vote there in 2015 it's easily explained.




For comparison, here are the Leave/Remain margins in 2016:

[DistingFlyer]

As I've said, Labour doesn't need to win an overall majority, or even win more seats than the tories to get into 10 Downing Street.

They just need to make it so Labour+SNP is a majority. Assuming the SNP keeps 40 seats or so, that means Labour needs roughly 280 seats or so. Still an uphill climb, but not a net pickup  of 120+ seats and a 10 point lead nationally anymore

SNP would demand an independence referendum. Then, if they were to win it, Scotland would leave the UK and Labour would lose their majority mid-term.

Not to mention that the Tories already succeeded in doing some damage to Labour in 2015 by invoking the idea of Labour playing footsie with the SNP; I therefore doubt that Labour would try to do something like that, and if they did it would probably just make them look desperate - "Even they know they can't win on their own anymore, so they're cozing up to separatists to get in power that way!" You can envision the opinion pieces and Tory billboards already.