Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6)

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This is the FOX criteria:

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It may be that all the major polling outfits will try to get one out in the week before Aug. 4, which may mean that there will be fewer (live phone) polls in early/mid July.

And it looks like that 1% thing could be an issue for Jindal who would not even qualify for the second tier 'forum' FOX is holding. Of course he will have his theoretical 'bump' but I think that after spending all year trying to get attention and polling below 1%, Jindal may not run in the end.

I wouldn't be totally shocked if there were 6 or more polls ending August 3rd released early on August 4th.

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And I still think Kasich has a shot at pulling out a last minute move into the top 10.  Everything depends on the media coverage he gets when he announces his candidacy next week.  There are some party elites who really have to make a hard decision about whether they see him as being the most electable candidate in the field.  If so, then next week would be a good time for some high profile endorsements..

"Gentlemen, with us today is a man who has done it all. He's worked Ralph Nader - he's worked with Grover Norquist. He's balanced the federal budget - he's cut taxes. He went from a 30% approval rating to a 64% re-election in the most important swing state in the country in three years. He's set up everyone from John Sununu to Bob Walker in his campaign staff and will be the last serious candidate to announce, this getting the most coverage and announcement spike.

"Obviously, he has no chance at the nomination. Go up to him and say, 'You can't do it.' The doubters always told him it in the past."

And got paid a $432,000 bonus at the Lehman Brothers brothers in 2008. Great job, Kasich!

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I still think we will see 5 entirely new polls before the debate. Monmouith has confirmed they will do one and yesterday Chuck Todd said NBC will have a new one out in a couple weeks. CNN tends to poll at the end of the month so that is 3. I suspect that FOX would want their own poll to be one of the five polls so that would be 4. So you just need one more. Quinnipiac is due for a poll, they havent done one since May and McClatchy/Marist hasnt since March. And then there are other live phone pollsters that havent done any this cycle including CBS/NYT and Pew.

I wouldn't be shocked if 5 or more polls are released on the deadline day.

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Averaging in Bloomberg

Chances are the 5th poll doesn't change the top 10.

1   Trump    23
2   Bush    12.75
3   Walker    10.75
4   Carson    6.75
5   Cruz            6.25
5   Huckabee    6.25
7   Rubio    5.0
8   Paul            5.0
9   Christie    3.5
10   Kasich    3.25


11   Perry    2.0
12   Santorum    1.5
13   Fiorina    1.25
14   Jindal    1.0
15   Graham    0.5
16   Pataki   0.0
16   Gilmore   0.0