New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Mehmentum]

Sanders will win by 3-5%.

Many of Sanders' rural WWC voters have left the party, and the suburbanites who have joined are much friendlier to Buttigieg.  Still, Sanders' state is neighboring, and New Hampshire has a tendency to vote contrary to Iowa. 

It'll be close, and the media will play it as a strong result for Buttigeig.  Sanders's strength compared to last cycle is with minorities, but unfortunately our primary calendar is still biased towards whites, so we aren't getting a good gauge of Sanders' coalition yet.

[Mehmentum]

Voter turnout numbers (as of 12:30 pm) to over-analyze from college towns:

https://twitter.com/The10thMTN/status/1227289237860413440

Sanders 2016 performance in each location:

Durham: 70.3%
Plymouth: 79.2%
Hanover: 53.1%
Keene Ward 1: 82.6%

update:

https://twitter.com/The10thMTN/status/1227345548803358722

W/ a constant rate of increase, turnout would be close to 2016, perhaps a bit short.  However, obviously after 4:00 is going to be much higher turnout that 12:30-4:00, and especially so for young people.  So youth turnout may end up being higher than in 2016.

[Mehmentum]

Voter turnout numbers (as of 12:30 pm) to over-analyze from college towns:

https://twitter.com/The10thMTN/status/1227289237860413440

Sanders 2016 performance in each location:

Durham: 70.3%
Plymouth: 79.2%
Hanover: 53.1%
Keene Ward 1: 82.6%

update:

https://twitter.com/The10thMTN/status/1227345548803358722

W/ a constant rate of increase, turnout would be close to 2016, perhaps a bit short.  However, obviously after 4:00 is going to be much higher turnout that 12:30-4:00, and especially so for young people.  So youth turnout may end up being higher than in 2016.

Apparently the 2016 turnout numbers were combined democatic/republican primary numbers?

Wow, great news!  Thanks.

[Mehmentum]

Only 11% 18-29 in the first wave of polling.

https://twitter.com/actoraaronbooth/status/1227356748454952961?s=21

This will go up.

For reference it was 19% in 2016.