Would you accept this AZ map as a compromise, or urge your team fight on?

[krazen1211]

Yep, I would.

[krazen1211]

Torie's AZ-2 is a Dem pack that happens to be 50.1% Hispanic. It's not a Hispanic pack in any way. It also splits a reservation, of course.
The Phoenix seat is similarly drawn - going after Dem precincts, not Hispanic precincts, Retroceding out of "protected" Hispanic areas as a result. (The added advantage is, of course, that White Liberal precincts have higher turnout, so the net vote gain for Republicans for the remainder is greater.)

He did certainly cheat the Tucson white liberals a bit. That said, since you can avoid splitting Glendale, I don't think that is quite as bad.

[krazen1211]

This would be a much more proper swing district in Maricopa. 51.4% McCain 47.3% Obama.

[krazen1211]

The 7th here is 54.5% VAP, and it doesn't go into Phoenix or Glendale. It does take in the suburbs on the west side of Phoenix, but it has to for it to be a real Hispanic district. It also goes in and takes in the Hispanic areas of Pinal county and gets rid of the non Hispanic areas around Yuma. I didn't even catch how low the Hispanic % was in your 2nd Hispanic district. That map is certainly unacceptable.

And your Tucson cut is pretty hilarious as well. It includes some precincts that are like 70% white, but had another characteristic that would make them "appropriate" to put in the mustachioed man's district as you saw it.

You think a court will grab Hispanics west of Phoenix to put in the Tucson CD, so that it can pick up more white liberals in Tucson. I deliberately did not do that (and you have to do that to get the Dem percentage up in AZ-01), because I don't think a court will do that, nor an unbiased commissioner. So if that is your demand, we litigate. No deal!    Krazen's marginal CD looks good, and it does avoid splitting Glendale, and is certainly an option. Something has to be split however.

Below is a slightly revised map of Tucson, which drops the GOP percentage in AZ-01 by 20 basis points down to 52.7% McCain. I discovered Flowering Wells, which is close to 30% Hispanic, and marginal, and put it in AZ-02, which allowed adding 3 liberal white precincts to AZ-01 (the ones right on top of the University of Arizona of course).  The only liberal precincts still in AZ-02 which are under 25% Hispanic are in red and yellow, which the yellow being between 20%-25% Hispanic, and the red ones being between 15%-20% Hispanic. There are no other more Hispanic precincts  to put into AZ-02 which are within reach, so that AZ-01 can suck up more of the red precincts. None - at least none that I could find.

So the VRA creates a wall against the Dems getting what they want in Tucson, unless you cause AZ-02 to go into the Hispanic suburbs west of Phoenix. No deal! The Pubs should litigate against that tooth and nail in my opinion. I don't think it comports with the AZ law, cutting back AZ-02's footprint in Tucson and creating a Phoenix area salient for purely partisan reasons. There is nothing compact or community of interest related about that. It makes AZ-02 more like a wandering gypsy. I suspect the Pubbie friendly AZ Supremes will be listening to this line of reasoning very closely on this one.

Splitting vs nonsplitting Glendale doesn't change the Obama % of the Pastor district. Basically the areas of Glendale closest to Phoenix are ~55-60% Obama, as are similar precincts just to the east in Phoenix itself.

Currently the white liberal population of Tucson (ie the 70% white 80% Obama precincts) are split between 2 districts. They should likely be put into 1.

[krazen1211]

Here's my newest shot.




AZ-4 and AZ-7 are 55+% VAP Hispanic.
AZ-8 is 49.7% McCain, 49.2% Obama.
AZ-5 is 51.4% McCain, 47.3% Obama.
AZ-1 is 54.7% McCain. 44.0% Obama.

Both AZ-1 and AZ-5 are comparable to current districts which have been competitive. AZ-8 probably isn't. New district AZ-9 is safe GOP obviously, as are 2, 3, 6.

The Democrats have an outside shot at 5 districts while the GOP has an outside shot at 7.

[krazen1211]

I wouldn't accept it. See you in court Lewis.

Would you accept what Krazen drew, or would you see him in court too?

Maybe as a political deal, yes, but it certainly isn't anything like a court would draw. His basically gets creates a CD in Phoenix that is one point more Dem than mine, and gets close to ceding a CD to the Dems in Tucson of course, in exchange for everything else being put totally out of range. There is no way the Dems would get as favorable a Tucson seat as his map has, but his CD in Phoenix could well be drawn by a court, and he does take the northern CD off the table for the Dems. His coming up with that Phoenix CD for the Dems which does not divide any municipalities is kind of a boon for the Dems, because it makes the drawing of such a CD more likely than if that option was not there. It makes me a tad more flexible than before in other words. You porked the pooch krazen!  

It wouldn't surprise me actually. IMO Cochise county should be all into CD-8 or all out; and certainly not a convenient split like the Dems did. The Dems also of course pair Apache Junction and exurban Pinal County with Gilbert to create an uberpack.

Given the parameters of the commission; I don't see how the marginal Maricopa district should not contain either:

1. Tempe + Scottsdale + parts of Mesa (~53% McCain)
2. Tempe + Chandler + parts of Mesa (~52% McCain)

The main reason I complain about the actual proposed map is that they cheated and made a ~48% McCain district. But we would realistically be cheating if we did Tempe + Chandler + Gilbert as of course a GOP gerrymander would.

Lewis in his map of course places 4 districts inside Maricopa County rather than 5.