MO-PPP: Huckabee and Romney ahead against Obama

[krazen1211]

I don't think Missouri is joining the South. If that were the case, Missouri would have voted for McCain by well over 55 percent of the vote, and he didn't even crack 50 percent here. Elections are always close in Missouri; in no other Southern state are elections as close as they are, so I still argue that we are still a pretty representative state of the nation; the southern parts of the state do tend to self-identify more as "Southern," whereas the northern parts of the state tend to self-identify more as "Midwestern."

It's just that the rural areas are becoming more Republican (I know, I live in the real Missouri, if you will). It's cliched but people who live in the cracker parts of the state do vote with their Bibles over their pocketbooks (save for a handful of counties in the Lead Belt, i.e. Iron and Washington); that, along with regional/geographical proximity, is why Huckabee has the largest lead. If you look back at the 2008 GOP primary here, you'll see that Huckabee won a majority of the rural counties and that his best performance was in Southwest Missouri and the counties that border Arkansas. IIRC, the rural areas here are losing population (rural flight), so I don't think the state will "trend" much more Republican, but I may revise my opinion after I look at the composite results of the census data.

But I must say, I'm surprised Obama is doing so well here especially against Romney, and kudos to my state for not being dumb enough to vote for Queen Sarah. Show-Me No Stupidity State

It's not the rural areas that are shedding population; its St. Louis and Kansas City.

[krazen1211]

It's not the rural areas that are shedding population; its St. Louis and Kansas City.

St. Louis lost population, Kansas city gained, amongst rural areas some gained and some lost.
In fact looking at this map:
http://2010.census.gov/news/img/cb11cn49_mo_perchange_2010map.jpg

you can see that both Obama's best county (St. Louis city) and Mccain's best county (rural Barton) lost population.

Jackson County gained, but Kansas City didn't, at least not much. Cleaver's 5th district is 114k short on population, and other than the 2 St. Louis districts, its the smallest in the state.