Guys, I can't believe we're having this discussion again.
The topic was interesting before veering off topic; the idea of a potential sympathy factor is something we could debate. Remember 2000 Missouri?
That's a good point, but lets remember than Ashcroft was considered vulnerable for that entire cycle, and that polling was close even before Mel Carnahan died, and of course that Carnahan was more popular than Ashcroft was in terms of approval rating and whatnot. More importantly, 2 years later, Jean Carnahan lost.
It's entirely possible that some possible potential sympathy factor might have been there, but overall the results seem to be dictated by political realities to me.
I have to wonder how MO democrats would have voted had they known that Ashcroft would become Attorney General if he lost. Better damage control to keep him in the Senate.