PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Why are people writing off Parnell? He did well in the district against a well known and well liken incumbent

Because he's a wing nut and conspiracy theorist who is going to run in the same lane as 10 other, equally unqualified Republicans in the primary?

PA literally voted for Trump in 2016 and he was an unqualified conspiracy theorist. He is far from unacceptable in PA politics

Yes and nothing has happened between then and now.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

🚨🚨🚨WE'VE GOT A POLL FOLKS, THIS IS NOT A DRILL🚨🚨🚨

Granted, it's an internal through DFP, but:

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1395393004882509827?s=20

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Yikes, that’s an awful poll, though hopefully Lamb’s numbers go up when he officially announces. He’s the only candidate that would keep this race a toss-up; the rest of these jokers shift it to Likely R at best.

This is based on what again?

Clearly not the poll posted above or the one showing Fetterman leading Bartos and Parnell by ~10 points while Lamb falls within the MoE...

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Wake me up when Houlahan and Lamb make their decisions.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

I think if the election were tomorrow, I would probably vote for Kenyatta. I like him a lot.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

With all the news of Dean, Houlahan, and Wild not jumping into the primary, do we know if Cartwright has ruled out a Senate run as well? He's needed in the house, but idk how much longer Cartwright can hold on for (especially if his district gets redder in redistricting).

He would be in already if he wanted to be in. I can't recall if he has specifically ruled it out, but it's not exactly new news that his district is going to be impacted by redistricting. If he saw a future in statewide politics, he would've gotten in already. I suppose it's still possible, but it doesn't strike me as incredibly likely.

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I honestly don't think Lamb has any interest in GOV, at least not right now

Yeah absolutely not. He has been explicitly linked to the Senate race. He's either running for that or he's running for re-election. The Gov nomination is Shapiro's and no other serious candidate has been linked to that race in a while. Jim Kenney was the last major name who was considering a run but that's gone completely silent.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

I honestly don't think Lamb has any interest in GOV, at least not right now

Yeah absolutely not. He has been explicitly linked to the Senate race. He's either running for that or he's running for re-election. The Gov nomination is Shapiro's and no other serious candidate has been linked to that race in a while. Jim Kenney was the last major name who was considering a run but that's gone completely silent.

I suppose Lamb running for senate would be bad news for Fetterman? Both he an Kenyatte are progressives and I would think Fetterman more appeals to moderate Dems.

Pennsylvania tends to vote based on geography in the primary. The Philadelphia area will vote for candidates from Philly, Pittsburgh voters will vote for candidates from Pittsburgh, etc. So Lamb getting in hurts Fetterman from that standpoint. Kenyatta is hurt most by Val Arkoosh, but they're both hardly picking up much vote share this early into the primary. I think Lamb and Fetterman are both high profile enough to make it a really interesting result come election day and maybe Kenyatta or Arkoosh could theoretically squeeze through if one of them is able to capture enough of the vote in Philly and its suburbs. I think NEPA, Erie, and Centre counties are pretty much going to decide this primary, so I wouldn't be surprised to see candidates campaigning heavily in those areas.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Lamb is the most electable. In polls, most Pennsylvania democratic voters consider themselves “moderate”. While that might not mean much, it has implications. More people are going to vote for Lamb in the primary than many might think. Fetterman, while I still think he’s a good candidate and would still probably win, I don’t think moderate/independent turn-out would go to Fetterman as much as it would Lamb.

This is based on nothing more than a guess.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Take with a grain of salt, but PoliticsPA ran a poll asking who Democrats should nominate for US Senate and with over 3,700 votes cast, Malcolm Kenyatta edged out Conor Lamb as the readers' choice:

https://www.politicspa.com/reader-poll-democrats-should-nominate-kenyatta-for-u-s-senate-in-2022/98478/

Kenyatta 38%
Lamb 35%
Fetterman 15%
Arkoosh 6%
Street 1%

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Honestly, I'm still a little skeptical of Kenyatta for how vociferously he backed Biden in the primary. Biden was not running as anything close to a progressive, and for me it both calls into question Kenyatta's progressive bona fides and makes me worry that he'll continue to endorse centrists when in office.

Plenty of progressives fell behind Biden while still supporting progressive ideals. Kenyatta’s also been a strong advocate for progressive issues on the campaign trail and has even expressed a willingness to support Medicare for All, which is typically not something a “centrist” would do—especially not one running in Pennsylvania of all places. He seems to be taking the race much more seriously than Fetterman is and I trust Kenyatta to build the coalitions needed to advance these progressive ideas through the rapport he’s built with the center.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

No surprise here, but Carla Sands is in:

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1412409217420570636?s=20

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

ANOTHER WFP socialist who wants to defund the police.
https://mobile.twitter.com/WorkingFamilies/status/1362569864297259010
Safe R.

If you're going to troll, please consider being original at it.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

If Lamb gets in, Kenyatta’s chances will be boosted exponentially.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Nobody more grateful for this news than Malcolm Kenyatta. Two white dudes from Pittsburgh splitting that vote gives him a real shot to capture not just Philly and the surrounding areas, but a lot of areas that would otherwise have voted for either Lamb or Fetterman like Erie, Lancaster, Lackawanna, etc.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

https://twitter.com/conorlambpa/status/1423617173222735876?s=21

Obviously we knew this was coming, but it's pretty annoying seeing it in real life. No more boring white men with recycled establishment talking points in the US Senate. This is the time to rally behind someone who will actually fight for the priorities of working people.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

That’s a lame announcement video, certainly not indicative of a candidate who’s likely to attract a ton of crossover appeal. Much like the R field for OH-SEN, I find the Democrats' bench here (especially Lamb, but also Fetterman) to be fairly unimpressive/overrated, especially given how dominant the two parties have been in their respective states (at the local level, at least). Really think the margins in both races (and most other competitive races, to be fair) will be near-identical to Biden's approval-dispproval spread.

You should see the video of the same announcement, but in Spanish. It's major Beto O'Rourke vibes:

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/1423620140449546243?s=20

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

https://twitter.com/conorlambpa/status/1423617173222735876?s=21

Obviously we knew this was coming, but it's pretty annoying seeing it in real life. No more boring white men with recycled establishment talking points in the US Senate. This is the time to rally behind someone who will actually fight for the priorities of working people.

How is Lamb not doing that? I don't see how Lamb, Fetterman, Kenyatta, or Arkoosh are not this type of person? This is just being unnecessarily divisive.

Lamb is going to toe the party line. Perhaps I was not specific enough in my language--we need someone who will fight beyond just the Democratic Party's agenda. It's good to start with that agenda for sure, but Kenyatta and Fetterman will also support the President's agenda. I want someone who will go further the way that Kenyatta or Fetterman will and Lamb won't. Lamb has even shown token moderate moments by not voting for Pelosi for Speaker, voting against the MORE Act, etc.--I don't buy into the narrative that he would be Sinema 2.0--he would be closer to Bob Casey--but the Senate does not need more token Democrats, especially not from such a crucial state like PA.

Electing folks like Kenyatta and Barnes is infinitely preferable to just putting in another boring cog in the machine. If we're going to move forward as a party and a country, our policies and our candidates ought to as well.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

As I’ve said, Lamb is not anywhere near as bad as Sinema or Manchin. He has advocated largely for baseline Democratic positions (except, famously, on marijuana, which his position is ironically probably still to the left of Joe Biden’s) and would not actively sabotage the Democratic agenda. I would be ok voting for him in general. My problem with him, however, is that he is far too bland and by the book for this moment. PA is arguably the most important Senate race and swing state in the country. We deserve better than someone who will just toe the line. This is a competitive primary and primaries are supposed to be (at least in theory) about policy, not electability. I know this is not how the average voter thinks, but someone ought to take up the mantle of picking candidates based on what they will do rather than if they can win. If Lamb wins the primary, he will absolutely be better than any of the wingnuts that the GOP could nominate and it would be imperative for him to win the general. However, that doesn’t mean that I (or anyone, frankly) should vote for him based on some hypothetical electability argument. The perception that he is the only candidate who can win the general is based on no hard data and pure guesses. He’s fine, but he’s not as good as some of the other candidates running and I hope if he does win the primary, he at least embraces some of the positions that Fetterman and Kenyatta are taking and moves a little more left.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

"Parnell will beat Fetterman in the general.

Source: trust me guys"

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

I want Keyanetta

Me too!

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

I am happy to inform you all that my friend is a Keyanetta-wanter.

Based and Malcolmpilled.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1435404867800010758

Yeah, this is a nothingburger. But still funny. I hope they destroy each other.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Bartos trying to win a Republican primary by being a feminist is just...lol.

This ad should just be recycled by the Dem nominee for the general when Parnell inevitably wins.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

"At least one" credible Republican is considering jumping in to stop Parnell.

Plot twist: it's Pat Toomey