Three weeks to go; who will get more votes (nationwide)?

[Blue Rectangle]

Many Kerry supporters will go to Nader if they see Kerry as a lost cause.  If Bush holds a decent lead into the election, we could see surprisingly high numbers for Nader (but less than 2000).  If the race becomes very close, we might see Nader drop below 1%.  I have a general feeling that Badnarik's support is much less affected by the closeness of the Bush/Kerry race.