Top 5 states that Reps/Dems will target in 08.

[Blue Rectangle]

Bush's PV percentage in CO increased almost a full point from 2000 (50.75%) to 2004 (51.69%).  The reason why the margin decreased was due largely to Nader voters from 2000 shifting to Kerry.

It should be noted that Kerry spent quite a lot of time and effort in CO (probably way too much--a strategic error that hurt him in other states).  He was campaigning in Pueblo, CO the day before election day, IIRC.  Kerry's turnout was also helped by Ken Salazar's successful senate run, which undoubtedly brought many Hispanic Democrats to the polls.

It should also be noted that although Ken Salazar won, his margin of victory over Pete Coors was quite small (3%, I think).  Given that Salazar was a popular moderate and the current AG as well as a Hispanic, he didn't do all that well against late-arrival to the race and political novice Pete Coors.

The Democratic victory in the statehouse was a result of strictly local issues.  The key issue was the budget deficit and the conflict between a tax and spending limiting amendment and an amendment requiring education spending to increase a rate above inflation.  One shouldn't read to much into this result when it comes to predicting the presidential race in 2008.

[Blue Rectangle]

The Dems will never take Colorado

Clinton won it in 1992.

Enter the Perot.

CO in 1992:
Clinton 40.13%
Bush 35.87%
Perot 23.32%

A few points:
--Clinton won with only 40% (hardly impressive).
--Perot out-performed his national numbers by almost 5% (CO is usually friendly to 3rd parties).
--In 2004, the 3rd party vote dropped from almost 7% (2000) to 1.3%.

A Democrat will have a tough time winning CO.  A Right-wing or Populist 3rd party candidate will help the Dems a little, but 2004 showed that Colorado Republicans will stay loyal to the Party in a close race.