Arizona poll from PPP: Romney+9

[mondale84]

Those party ID numbers are very questionable...

[mondale84]

Those party ID numbers are very questionable...

Not really. R+8, 2008 was R+7.

The Dems have registered a ton of new voters though and 2008 was probably a high point for Republicans in Arizona because of the native-son effect.

Prediction: Obama wins at-least 46% on election day.

[mondale84]

Those party ID numbers are very questionable...

Not really. R+8, 2008 was R+7.

Roughly 87,000 registered Democrats have vanished off the AZ voter registration rolls.

Ummm....no. The Obama campaign has been registering tons of new latinos and they will turn out in droves to stick it to the bigoted racist state GOP.

[mondale84]

Ummm....no. The Obama campaign has been registering tons of new latinos and they will turn out in droves to stick it to the bigoted racist state GOP.

Nope. The actual data proves otherwise.

If you are "the actual data" then I think we're fine.

Also, don't give me numbers from the Arizona SOS...he's a hackish Birther troll who tried to get the President's name off the ballot.

[mondale84]

What would happen if Gary Johnson decides to swing by AZ and is able to take away some Romney voters and makes the state competitive??

Most polling indicates Johnson takes from Romney and Obama about equally...

This is in fact not the case.

[mondale84]

What would happen if Gary Johnson decides to swing by AZ and is able to take away some Romney voters and makes the state competitive??

Most polling indicates Johnson takes from Romney and Obama about equally...

This is in fact not the case.

This is in fact the case -- if anything, most polling actually shows Johnson taking slightly more from Obama than Romney:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/obama-up-by-3-in-colorado.html

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/07/obama-lead-in-new-mexico-declining.html

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/obama-remains-ahead-in-nevada.html#more

The only polls PPP has done with Johnson are the three above and the recent Montana poll (that I could find using Google). Johnson's impact is R+1, R+1, 0, and D+2; which averages out to 0. I couldn't find polling including Johnson from other pollsters.

Once people vote and Johnson is on the Libertarian line, he will hurt Romney like all libertarians steal votes from Republicans.