Ukraine Crisis

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The interim Ukrainian government just announced they were raising home gas prices 50% to make the IMF happy.

The neoliberal vultures are already descending upon poor Ukraine. Why is this not a surprise?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.

And what if the (Ukrainian) population of those islands pronounces for Japan?

This is not a thing that will happen.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Stalin 2.0 murdering Tatars en masse already.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Russian planes have been violating Ukrainian airspace.

Not good. How likely is it that the U.S. will break off diplomatic relations with Russia at this point?

Not likely at all.  I don't think that would happen even if Russian tanks roll into Donetsk.  What could happen is a total breaking off of economic relations, including severing of Russia from the world financial system which would severely hamper its trade even with those countries that continue to trade with it.

We never broke relations with the USSR, so I don't see us breaking off with Russia unless we directly go to war with them.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The mayor of Kharkiv was severely wounded in a shooting.

Moderate PORer. Shot by either pro-Russians or Ukrainians trying to frame Russians.

Maybe he wasn't enough of a social conservative and too much of a fiscal conservative to have any firm base in the Luhansk caucuses.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

As for the talking points it gives to Putin... Listen, Putin, would be declaring Mahatma Gandhi and Winston Churchill fascists today, if that were to suite him.

Churchill, in fairness, was one of the worst mass murderers of the 20th century depending on how responsible you hold him for the Bengal famine and for the various unnecessary and ineffective British strikes on civilian targets in occupied Europe (as opposed to the more effective American bombing campaigns).

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If Russia does a full-scale invasion (I don't think they will because they don't have to), I doubt there will be a large-scale partisan war simply due to the terrain; from a geographic standpoint Ukraine is a very easy country to roll into compared to Afghanistan or Vietnam.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If NATO was going to intervene over Ukraine they would have already. If there is a war between NATO and Russia it will start over the Baltics.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I think, this year we have a perfect candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize: if they do not give it to Mustafa Dzhemilev, they will be in the wrong.

He's a legitimate option, but my suspicion is it will probably go to something involved in Syria again.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

What prompted this?

I've barely said anything on Ukraine in a while other than rather bland analysis. I don't really like either side though I won't go in depth again.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Though I will disagree on what Putin will pursue next after he swallows Donbass; he won't go west immediately. You all may be underestimating the importance of the resource-rich and, in all cases except Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, fairly pro-Moscow governments which will probably end up as part of Putin's "Union State" thing in Central Asia. If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'm going to agree with ag and say that Putin has some sort of ulterior motive, though we'll have to wait and see what his next move is.

FTR I've shifted to tacitly supporting the Kiev government as the lesser of two evils at this point, especially since the neo-Nazis have been to some extent shoved aside.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

They are perfectly believable... seeing as the only people voting were probably fans of the whole thing or feared for their safety if they voted otherwise. Wouldn't surprise me if they softened the result even. Of course the turnout numbers are BS.

Right. Like in Crimea the would-be No voters chose not to vote at all because they saw the referendum as illegitimate. The difference is that in Crimea, Yes would have won anyway, but here that surely wouldn't be the case.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

According to RUSSIAN sources (which base themselves on the "DNR" statements), of those killed at Donetsk airport, 33 have been identified as Russian citizens, 15 are locals, more corpses are still in the no-man land and cannot be retrieved.

It increasingly seems that a) Ukrainians were more than justified in their actions and b) if anything, their actions are extremely moderate and exhibit obvious concern over the fate of civilians (they have demonstrated they are capable of a massive attack with lethal results, they obviously limit that kind of action to avoid civilian casualties - and the one time they went through with it was when the "DNR" people exposed themselves trying to storm the airport).

Would these have been actual Russian soldiers or merely the "polite people"?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I somewhat doubt that Putin has any territorial desires against Bulgaria.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Azov Battalion enlisting foreign neo-Nazis.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'm going to leave this here

The President is right, because there is no ideological struggle between NATO and Putin's Russia, both of which are firmly in the hands of opposed sets of private oligarchs (though arguably Russia's domestic policy is embracing traditional conservatism in order to court the favor of the Orthodox Church). This is entirely two opposing imperialist sides jockeying for influence in a strategically important and quite populous European state.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The fact that only ~52% of the member states of the UN voted yes to condemn a blatantly fraudulent, deceptive, forceful, and illegal annexation of another country

I'm fairly certain Ukraine still exists.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.

Please stop talking and come back when you figure out what the United Nations actually does.

In my lifetime, the only thing I have seen the UN "do" is make itself a forum for third world crackpots and tyrants to blame the west for their problems.

Here, I'll help you out. Have you noticed that smallpox isn't a thing anymore? Who do you think is responsible for that?

teh free market

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Enlightened western-style democracy!

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Moreover, it is literally wrong to claim that because Edward Jenner discovered the smallpox vaccine that the United Nations was not responsible for the eradication of the disease.

If the UN didn't exist, the Red Cross would have eventually eradicated it. And even if the UN is effective in this area, is it still efective at its core political purpose?

I'm convinced you have little to no knowledge of the world outside the United States.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I trust the State Department about as much as I trust the Kremlin.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Ukraine says the rebel plan was to shoot down an Aeroflot airliner as a false-flag invasion pretext, but the BUK was sent to the wrong town.

A random right-wing blog post (I snooped around other posts which primarily consist of Islamophobia and general paranoia) which cites only a local Ukrainian news station doesn't seem to be the most reliable source.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands.

So now we're hopping on board with the xenophobic militarists who openly want to revive the empire and abandoning the San Francisco Treaty and the will of the ethnic Russians in the Kurils? That's not hypocritical at all (and it certainly won't help curry favor with China).