This map is pretty close to what I get whenever I use evc, which is every few days or so... assuming a close pv. Nevada and Florida both have higher unemployment that the national average, so in a close race I would nudge them into the blue. However, I'm starting to think the race won't be close - my gut feeling is that it will be the most decisive result since the 80's. Though at the moment that doesn't seem possible.
As for the lean D Midwestern states going R, and the trending Hispanic/Yankee Southern states going D, I think we're a few years off from that type of flip in a close race. I could envision Obama winning most of his 08 states plus GA in a blowout. Or the reverse, loosing the Midwest entirely along with the South. The demographic flip will probably be pronounced by 2020.
If Obama has a blow-out he could probably pull off a win in AZ, ND, SD, MT, and MO.
Eh, I'd put Georgia or even West Virginia before the Dakotas.
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