UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread  (Read 77114 times)
Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #25 on: December 14, 2019, 10:38:33 PM »

Amazing that Blair got a comfortable majority in 2005 with 13.6% less of the vote than Attlee's defeat in 1951.
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #26 on: December 15, 2019, 10:02:38 PM »

Interesting that Attlee '45 has the largest margin of victory there by percentage but the smallest by vote total other than MacDonald. Was London horrendously malapportioned by 1945, did the East End have beyond-abysmal turnout at the time, or both?
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #27 on: December 15, 2019, 10:12:06 PM »

Interesting that Attlee '45 has the largest margin of victory there by percentage but the smallest by vote total. Was London horrendously malapportioned by 1945, did the East End have beyond-abysmal turnout at the time, or both?

The last redistribution was in 1918; this, combined with the wartime movement of people out of London and into the surrounding areas, meant that a lot of seats like his had tiny electorates by 1945. This proved to be a help for Labour in that election, of course: those old strongholds remained unchanged in terms of boundaries, while surrounding seats now had lots of Labour voters living in them.

In general, the best election for Labour is the one right before redistribution - Tories tend to do well in prosperous, fast-growing places, so they usually gain seats each time while Labour lose them. The more time passes after redistribution, the greater Labour's advantage, astheir core seats tend to stagnate or even shrink, while the Tories' heartlands swell - look at the huge majority for John Major in 1992, the last election held on the 1983 boundaries.

I'm confused. If 1992 was the last election held on the 1983 boundaries, shouldn't the map have favored Kinnock rather than Major going by this?
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #28 on: December 15, 2019, 11:50:41 PM »

Their loss of Scotland makes things even harder; even in 2010, Labour had 217 seats outside Scotland; today Labour has 201. Barring a Scotland rebound, they would need to gain 124 in England and Wales alone...

[insert quote about Dylan Thomas and Welsh nationalism but with "Scottish" instead of "Welsh" here] (sorry, afleitch)
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,577


« Reply #29 on: December 16, 2019, 12:04:04 AM »

Their loss of Scotland makes things even harder; even in 2010, Labour had 217 seats outside Scotland; today Labour has 201. Barring a Scotland rebound, they would need to gain 124 in England and Wales alone...

[insert quote about Dylan Thomas and Welsh nationalism but with "Scottish" instead of "Welsh" here] (sorry, afleitch)

Non-salty take: the endgame for the left needs to be including the SNP in some sort of common program that isn't predicated on my-nationalism-is-woker-than-your-nationalism rather than attempting to tilt at windmills and overturn the new alignment north of the Tweed.
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