Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Is it certain that Meloni will be the next PM?

All but.

Wasn't Draghi and independent?

Yes, but look at the party standings in the outgoing Parliament.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This map is normalized to the parties vote overall, so the range for M5S is different from the one for FdI, which is different from the one for Lega, etc.

So one takeaway, from looking at this is that if any alliance wants to win a majority in the post-EU Bailout environment, they need strong appeal relative to the baseline in both the North and South. This is very hard to achieve as a single party, with Lega's 2019 EU election results being the most recent example - a situation quickly lost after their failed gamble for early elections. It was also the effective situation in both of Conte's governments: coalitions between a northern party and the southern M5S. When I use those terms, I am referring to what is seen on the economic indicators like GDP/per capita with Rome essentially as the dividing line, not a specific definition using say the Po or old borders of the Two Sicily's.

This is especially visible among the Left, once we understand that voter movements went M5S -> PD and PD -> A-IV in relation to 2018. PD picked up what support M5S has in the north, most visible in Genoa, but also lost some voters to Renzi. Holding said voters would make them even more of a northern party. Like their support in Red Tuscany didn't collapse, it just got outnumbered when compared to a more numerous foe. M5S, sucked of those voters who saw themselves as more right then left, are now the progressive option in the South, best seen by how they held up in Naples, Catania, Palermo, etc. By contrast, I'm not sure how well the right understands this reality rather than lucked into it. Forza and partially FdI carried the conservative Banner in the south, with Lega and FdI carried the north.

I am, as ever, obsessed with the mess that's Basilicata.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Congratulations to Italy for breaking the glass ceiling...in the f***ing worst way possible...

At the very least, given Italy's history, Meloni's government will probably implode spectacularly sooner or later. I guess we can look forward to that?

It never occurs to many on the Left that low immigration,  a non-globalist framework for policy, and an emphasis on preservation of family and culture is what Italian voters want.

If "God. Family. Country" is now Far Right, then God Help Western Civilization.

Italy is not America.   It gets to be what Italian voters want.

Those were more 2018 issues. My understanding is that this time the right's messaging focused more on the last few governments' failure to lastingly improve Italians' living standards. One of many reasons why I agree with Battista that the dynamics of this election are frankly not quite as depressing as those of the last one, even though the results of this one are even worse.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Meloni refuses to give a cabinet post to Salvini:

https://twitter.com/repubblica/status/1574612181806911490

Meloni's veto on Salvini: "Matteo will have no key ministries"

Inside Lega, Salvini's leadership is also being questioned and some say that it's time for a new leader.

Hahahahahahahahahahaha

Gotta respect Meloni for moving to sideline the Kidnapper so quickly.

GASLIGHT
GATEKEEP
GIRLBOSS

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1574862655067660295?t=9HVMAfxpORbr0D_JL...

Looks like she just lost a lot of her American online fans

Thank God for small blessings.

Hopefully the Constitutional Court will at the very least put the kibosh on any changes to family policy that involve breaking up existing same-sex-parent families.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

That is to say, none of this has really affected the demographic composition of the Right's support, which looks as non-traditional and #trendz-based as ever. The CDX once again absolutely tanked in wealthy urban areas.

To add to Al's point, the one thing that really stands out for Italy to be a "muh trendz" country is the South. If you looked at Al's maps North of Molise, then yeah, you could easily make the case that Italy is basically aligning on the same basic electoral geography as the rest of Europe, with only a few ancestral remnants of the old order here and there. The South completely throws that narrative out the window, though. The right's results are well below average almost everywhere there, even in areas that were historically very right-wing! In relative terms, the right was significantly stronger there back in 2013.

You could wave it off by saying M5S are populists too, sure, but the fact that there are two brands of populism, increasingly at odds with each other (for all that Conte attacks Letta and PD, it's clear that he has no love lost for Salvini or anyone else on the right). This isn't a complication that you find in most European countries, and it will have significant consequences for how political conflict structures itself going forward. Furthermore, M5S' populism is a distinctly left populism - this time more so than ever, as they ran an almost single-issue campaign on preserving the minimum income they established. Given that, the fact that they do so well outside of large urban areas is notable. Even Mélenchon's vote became an overwhelmingly urban one in this past election. So whatever's happening in Italy, muh trendz only goes so far in explaining it.

M5S is the least leftist party in Italy, if we assess these things cladistically, which we shouldn't. Jao

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

That is to say, none of this has really affected the demographic composition of the Right's support, which looks as non-traditional and #trendz-based as ever. The CDX once again absolutely tanked in wealthy urban areas.

To add to Al's point, the one thing that really stands out for Italy to be a "muh trendz" country is the South. If you looked at Al's maps North of Molise, then yeah, you could easily make the case that Italy is basically aligning on the same basic electoral geography as the rest of Europe, with only a few ancestral remnants of the old order here and there. The South completely throws that narrative out the window, though. The right's results are well below average almost everywhere there, even in areas that were historically very right-wing! In relative terms, the right was significantly stronger there back in 2013.

You could wave it off by saying M5S are populists too, sure, but the fact that there are two brands of populism, increasingly at odds with each other (for all that Conte attacks Letta and PD, it's clear that he has no love lost for Salvini or anyone else on the right). This isn't a complication that you find in most European countries, and it will have significant consequences for how political conflict structures itself going forward. Furthermore, M5S' populism is a distinctly left populism - this time more so than ever, as they ran an almost single-issue campaign on preserving the minimum income they established. Given that, the fact that they do so well outside of large urban areas is notable. Even Mélenchon's vote became an overwhelmingly urban one in this past election. So whatever's happening in Italy, muh trendz only goes so far in explaining it.

M5S is the least leftist party in Italy, if we assess these things cladistically, which we shouldn't. Jao

1. You stole my joke and 2. You didn't even explain it for laymen. I am very disappointed in you Nathan. Jao

1. I did. I apologize. Mea maxima culpa.
2. PSI->PCI->current center-left coalition. PSI->PNF->MSI->AN->FdI. FI was founded by Craxiworld people. Lega in its original MUH PADANIA incarnation absorbed a lot of local PSI functionaries in Lombardy and Veneto as well. The THIRD POLE mostly split from either FI (Craxiworld) or the center-left coalition (commies). That leaves M5S and arguably +Eu (but then, radicalism was left-wing in the nineteenth century) as the only non-left forces of significance in Italy. Sinistrisme forever!