Romney. I think he's just not-lame enough to squeak out a victory over the Scumbag PrezTM. Obama is too loose-cannon to win the comfort vote, IMO.
...what?
All the data and polls show Obama as vulnerable. Especially the jobs data and unemployment. When summer comes and $4 gas is here to stay, then Romney really has a chance.
I don't know what polls and stats everyone else is looking at, but Romney really has a chance to win this, especially if he can win over white Catholics.
Romney's platform is "Deficit Reduction" and "Balance the Budget" and he can win on those themes.
The election is in late autumn, which is typically after gas starts to come down. The jobs data so far has been fairly good; while anaemic in this particular month it shows no signs of becoming more so and may very well be revised upward.
Winning over white Catholics doesn't make up for losing women by fifteen or twenty points and Hispanics by forty or fifty these days.
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Romney wins if something unexpectedly bad happens. I sincerely hope nobody wants that.
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