2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Horus]

Yikes is Trump going to win?

More likely than not.

[Horus]

This is definitely going down to PA, isn’t it?

Almost certainly.

[Horus]

A few bold predictions:

1. Biden wins Kenton and Campbell counties. In addition to (easily) Franklin County.

2. Biden wins Fayette and Jefferson counties and ends up in at least the mid-60s in both.

3. Biden MAY win back Elliott County.

4. They will NOT be able to call Kentucky at poll close.

5. Trump wins Kentucky in the end by low-mid double digits, an abysmal margin compared to 2016.

6. People who unironically thought Biden being a white man wouldn’t matter in states like Kentucky, and that he’d do worse than Obama and Hillary, will have a ton of crow to eat.

Here we go asshole Barkley

You made all these claims

1. Kenton is 88% in and +20 Trump,  Franklin is 90% in and +0.1 Trump

2. Lexington/Louisville didn't release that many votes

3. Almost certainly not although it still only 52% reporting

4. Weird stuff happened

5. Meh final margin isn't there

6. There are multiple counties in rural where Biden is doing worse than both Clinton and Obama despite being a white man.

Dude, you need a seriously big drink of STFU juice right now

For what?

Alben Barkley has been stupidly terrorizing this board and acting like an asshole for months, predicting the biggest landslide, he was literally predicting 1980 or 1932 earlier in this night

For as much as some red avs complain about the hive mindedness of Trump supporters (And I completely agree with them fyi) certain Biden sycophants like Alben are no better. They just have a better vocabulary to shout down anyone not fully in line with their savior.

[Horus]

North Carolina looks really good for Biden...

No, it doesn't.

Most of the big counties are almost all in while super Trumpy areas haven't reported at all yet.

[Horus]

Regardless of the final outcome, it is a good thing that America is racially depolarizing. This forces quasi white nationalists away from the GOP and makes civil war less likely.

[Horus]

As more of the vote is coming in, it actually is looking like Biden is in good position to win NC, with GA likely to be quite close. Biden is getting the swings he needs in metro ATL and most of the vote reporting so far is rural GA, with most metro ATL counties lagging behind the statewide average.

So then why does the needle give Biden virtually no chance in GA?

I'm not saying you're wrong, but something isn't adding up.

[Horus]

Once Biden wins NC the Senate and Prez.

WOULD YOU SHUT UP. Mother of GOD.

Take your own advice.

[Horus]

Yep, this is 2004/1948 all over again.

Fairly unpopular incumbent mismanages a crisis (Coronavirus, Iraq war) but still manages to get reelected off of social issues (ssm, blm).

Also the biggest polling error since 1948. Nate Silver is definitely out of a job.

What a mess.

[Horus]

I'm black and I'm honestly wondering how Trump is doing better with my demographic than last time. What do these black Trump voters see in Trump? The Latino results I can at least kinda see with the whole socialism thing, but black voters?

This article is one perspective

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-partisan-gender-and-generational-differences-among-black-voters-heading-into-election-day/

[Horus]

Well, I hope we're still able to have free and fair elections four years from now. Odds on that?

[Horus]

I think Biden will win Wisconsin. Why are people not looking at the swings in the counties that are almost 100% reporting?

Dane has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats.
Ozaukee has a 7-point swing towards the Democrats.
Waukesha has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats, and I would expect it to become a little bit larger  because there's a chunk of uncounted absentee vote.
Eau Claire has a 3-point swing towards the Democrats.
Racine has a 1-point swing towards the Democrats.
St Croix has a 2-point swing towards the Democrats.

Up north, Douglas has a 2-point swing, Bayfield a 5-point swing, Ashland is staying pretty much the same.

I appreciate that the swings are mixed elsewhere in the state, but the aforementioned counties have a large population. Wisconsin only needs a swing of less than 1 percent to flip.

If Biden doesn't underperform horribly in Milwaukee and Kenosha, I think he's winning.

I think you’re right. And I also think Biden will win at least one of MI, PA, or GA. That will do it.

You know, I have to admire your determination. Biden is almost certain to lose yet you're still holding out hope.

[Horus]

Obama made a huge mistake by not pushing for DC statehood when he had the trifecta.

In retrospect he made a LOT of mistakes when he had not only a trifecta, but briefly a supermajority.

Joe Lieberman didn't help, and the Democratic party of the time was even more of a mish mosh of ideological coalitions. There was still an entire section of Blue Dogs who were for all intents and purposes Republicans.

Obama had to walk a fine line. If he tried to push for more and be more of an activist president he would've been dispatched in 2012 for being the "angry black guy." By the time his second term came along congress was already gone.

[Horus]

So Trump still favored but Wisconsin gives Biden a fighting chance is what I'm gathering?

[Horus]

So Trump still favored but Wisconsin gives Biden a fighting chance is what I'm gathering?

Biden is obviously favored. He can easily do what he just did in Wisconsin in Michigan, needs less than 60% of remaining mail votes. And he may be able to do it in GA too. Never mind PA. Trump needs to sweep them all and the odds of that are not good given the math.

Again, being able to do basic math has its advantages over relying on your feelings for everything.

You are conveniently ignoring Nevada.

[Horus]

...ok, but imagine Georgia right now if Stacey Abrams had actually been the VP pick.

Wouldn't have changed much. She's lost some goodwill around here since 2018. It's all about KLB now.

[Horus]

People, please: you're all grown boys/girls and I'm not going to tell you what to do.  But if you're feeling sleep-deprived or physically ill, I implore you to take a break and get some rest.  

I know it's stressful beyond belief, but please please consider your health first.  

You are right. I am in Denmark and haven't slept all night, only rested for a couple of hours where I couldn't fall asleep. It's midday on wednesday here now and thursday and friday are going to be BRUTAL days on work (partially because I took today off). Yet I cannot sleep right now. It's in the middle of the day and I REALLY need to get some work done from home or it'll bite me hard in the a$$.

I'll hit the bed really f***ing early tonight though. I'm thinking 8 pm. Need to get up at 5:30 am both thursday and friday.

Hey, you said it yourself. You're in Denmark, one of if not the healthiest democracy on the planet right now. You have a solid PM and a near perfect Freedom House rating. Don't let our dysfunctional country control your life man, you have it good trust me.

[Horus]

I'm more shocked about the house races tbh. It's almost as if the blue wave of 2018 didn't happen - where did all of those voters go? It's like they were mad and put Dems in charge and then totally reversed.

Or even Graham winning by 12 and Trump winning in South Carolina *more* than 2016? Like how?

I feel like rural black voters shifted R a lot more than urban/suburban black voters but gonna have to wait until precinct level maps are out to see. Myrtle Beach and Hilton Head are gaining lots of white olds who did not trend Biden as much as expected. Also Greenville-Spartanburg is a popular destination for those who want to move to the south but are also conservative, very different from Atlanta or Charlotte.

[Horus]

Can anyone TLDR on how much is out in GA and when its expected?

Focus on the blue wall

Georgia is a pipe dream

Except it isn’t. Trump could still win it but the math is favorable to Biden right now

And it's looking quite probable that there could be two Senate runoffs in January.  Perdue is at 50 and is likely to fall below it with the Atlanta vote out and a Libertarian candidate getting over 2% .

If Uncle Joe gets this we have to go ALL OUT for those runoff elections. I'm talking Mike Bloomberg dropping a billion on those races and a get out the vote effort to end all get out the vote efforts. We need to hit the republicans while they are still licking their wounds.

What wounds? They will keep the Senate comfortably. Bloomberg didn't help by blowing money on Florida and the Democrats already tried everything you mentioned. Republicans will almost certainly win both runoffs.

The Democratic Party once again proved itself one of the least competent opposition parties in history. One of the least popular incumbent presidents of all time and they lost just about every competitive Senate race.

Warnock has a chance against Loeffler. She is reviled.

Ossoff is likely done.

[Horus]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

My thoughts as well.

Biden needed a court proof victory, in other words he had to lock up FL or NC early on. That hasn't happened so Trump has a path until the EC votes.

[Horus]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

My thoughts as well.

Biden needed a court proof victory, in other words he had to lock up FL or NC early on. That hasn't happened so Trump has a path until the EC votes.

Ah so this is the next stage of doomerism then.

I have been saying for several weeks that if all votes are counted, Biden will win. Nothing I'm saying is new. Unlike you I don't shift the goalposts from a 413 victory to a narrow win with no Senate and then still act smug.

[Horus]

Just to help me understand: Biden leads WI and NV with almost exclusively postal votes to count. He's narrowly behind in MI and close enough in GA and PA, also with mostly postal votes outstanding. Surely he's favourite to win this from here?

If all votes are counted he will win.

[Horus]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Only seems impossible if you can't admit that Dems  are losing Latino voters as they gradually assimilate into white America.

I have a feeling Democrats 50 years ago or whatever were feeling the exact same way when the always reliable Italian and Irish votes began to flip.

[Horus]

I just woke up and am pissed.  Stayed up till 3am and it was looking like a Trump win.  So close yet so far!!!!!

Don't give up hope. The supreme court will still likely save this for you.

[Horus]

Cook County MN is weird,  voted 56% Clinton and now voting 65% Biden, despite not having anything that really resembles a Dem trending area.   wtf

Vacation homes on Lake Superior, perhaps more of these are now permanent residences due to COVID.

[Horus]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

I don't think I wanna know...