2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Horus]

CNN: Philly will dump 20K votes in 10-15 minutes.

Needs to be ca. 95%-5% for Biden so he can pull ahead.

He'll probably miss it by a hair but the next Philly dump should do it.

[Horus]

The four year national nightmare, disgrace and embarrassment is about to end. Far closer than it should've been, but good won out.

[Horus]

Been watching Foxnews for the last 20 minutes. Their coverage is actually very sober. Telling republicans the truth. I like it.

It is good to see, and decreases the potential for their followers to get violent, but there are always ulterior motives with that nasty network. Never forget, the rise of FOX News is a big reason why we have all of this division and nasty politics now.

[Horus]

I’m about to work my a** off to ensure these Senate seats stay red in GA.  The fate of the country depends on it.

KKKelly is going to lose badly.

[Horus]

Just woke up. Why aren’t the networks calling it yet?

Good question, especially since I'm watching CNN talk about how impossible it's going to be for Trump to regain a lead in PA.

My suspicion is that they want to wait for the lead to expand in order to make it look less biased.

Call will probably come after the next (last?) Philly dump.

[Horus]

According to the NYT swing tool Philly itself actually has swung pretty significantly right from 2016 (Disaffected Young Black Men for Trump, maybe?). Wot won it is the rest of Eastern Pennsylvania.

Otoh Prince George's county MD trended even further left.

Racial polarization decreases, educational polarization increases.

[Horus]

Kornacki just explained why PA hasn't been called. There are about 100,000 mail ballots outstanding but we don't know how many will be counted because many could be spoiled in some way (this is happening in counts so far) so we can't just assume Biden will net 50K from that. There are about 100,000 provisional ballots outstanding which is 4 times higher than in 2016. So far they have leaned Republican in PA (unlike in most years), possibly because the voters were bringing in mail ballots to their polling place on election day and don't have the envelope. Not clear how many of these will be counted or if they'll all lean Republican.

That does not sound promising.

Fortunately Biden can still win through NV and AZ but this is not good at all.

[Horus]

I would guess that we'll see the networks calls the race once the Allegheny vote comes in, which will put Biden's PA lead well over 0.5%.

I doubt it, if provisionals are GOP friendly and if there really are 100,000 of them they could cut into if not completely erase Biden's lead.

I don't think we'll have a call from PA until at least Monday.

[Horus]

According to exit polls published by the NYT (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html) Trump has doubled his share of LGBTQ voters since 2016. Can someone explain this?

McCain got 28% so it's not wildly unexpected.

Yeah, especially with Gay men I would assume?

I assume if it was just Trans people it would be FAR lower. (As I remember serving in the Military as Trans was banned under Trump or something like that).

But Trans is only a small percentage of LGBT, so yeah.

I'm not sure, most trans people are all about traditional gender norms, in the future they might be more at home in the GOP

[Horus]

The last AZ dump was heavy Trump.

The one from this morning?

No, it wasn't.

right now around 5K votes, the margin is now 40954 statewide

I see what you mean

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

Where are these huge margins coming from?

Biden 34.0% / 66.0% Trump

Biden 18.7% / 81.3% Trump

So much for the rest of the AZ ballots being more Dem favorable...

[Horus]

The "Here's how Trump can still win" game that the networks are playing is actually extremely unethical and dangerous. They're framing this like it's a football game or something that Biden came back and won in the 4th quarter. All of these votes were cast on or before election day, and we've been able to project the results of PA and Nevada (and possibly Arizona) for over 48 hours now. They're playing right into Trump's desire to delegitimize the election.

Most of the big networks want four more years of Trump for ratings, this shouldn't be a surprise. They are a repulsive group of people.

[Horus]

My dad(and his friends) and sister are convinced that the vote in Miami and the Rio Grande are rigged/fake.

What is their reasoning? The swings are striking but they do make sense.

[Horus]

I'm so happy ☺️

[Horus]

I hate to be that guy, but all this is tinged with some sadness and disappointment that Democrats haven't taken back to Senate. I have great skepticism based on the history of Georgia turnouts that will be able to pull off both runoffs. That means that Biden is going to be absolutely gridlocked for anything and everything he cannot accomplish by executive order. Republicans write down to so-called moderate like Susan Collins know their marching orders and we'll follow them from McConnell to the letter.

And for folks like P Q G and osr who feel relief that somehow they're going to be spared from some Bernie Sanders / AOC lead socialist Revolution with McConnell remaining is Senate Majority Leader, come on. With a 50/50 or even 51-49 send it nothing was going to get passed without the approval of folks like Joe manchin, Krysten Sienma, and Angus King. Anything getting passed would be only slightly to the left of Richard Nixon's domestic agenda for Pete's sake! surely ithat is preferable to Absolute partisan gridlock, no?

Things are changing in Georgia. I'm not sure if Usoff is favored but Warnock definitely is. People really do not like Kelly Loeffler.

[Horus]

Too much celebrating considering Trump is still president and the election is only legally binding if those currently in power allow it to be--and they likely won't

Not happening. Biden is 46.

[Horus]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-campaign-doug-collins-georgia-recount

“During the coming recount, we are confident we will find evidence of improperly harvested ballots and other irregularities that will prove that President Trump won Georgia fairly again on his way to re-election as President. Georgians deserve a free and open process, and they will get one.”

Alarming that the person overseeing the recount has a predetermined outcome in mind. Looks like Trump is setting up to undermine the vote in Georgia

I am not even kidding when I say I think it would be in your own best interest to go into a voluntary coma or something until January 21. Clearly the stress of... winning bigly???... is far too much for you and other doomers to handle.

Sad!

Hell, at least Horus has had the decency to hide his face around here ever since his prediction of Kanye making a dent in Minnesota fell laughably flat.

I'm still very much around thank you. And we won. I'm happy. No reason to doom now lol

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1325895522612285442

there is no bottom...

Don't worry, a lot of the Trumpers think the runoffs will be rigged and just won't show. Meanwhile here in DeKalb every first time voter I know is pumped to vote again.

[Horus]

ahmaud arbery bump for biden?

Even without the Arbery murder this is still the type of county I'd expect a marginally better Dem performance in.

It's very similar to Beaufort county SC which also swung left, there are some retirees from up north steadily coming in who aren't quite so conservative, and there's a decent black population, as is the case for almost every county south of Forsyth.

[Horus]

Arizona keeps finding votes, I look at the vote totals and it's not really shifting from one column to another. So far the remaining votes has actually increased a few times. This changes the math and keeps Trump mathematically more viable then currently stated.

Interesting how no votes have been "found" in PA or GA but they keep popping up here... anyone with a better knowledge of AZ politics know why this is?

[Horus]

This is the second Rick Scott meme I've seen from you that'll give me nightmares. Please stop.

[Horus]

Trump rejecting Nancy Pelosi stimulus is looking like a dumber decision day by day

If a stimulus had passed Trump would've won Wisconsin, Georgia, arizona and probably even Nevada.

[Horus]

i'm annoyed at this result as a republican, but it's fired me up as hell to vote these liberals out in 2022. leggo

You're old enough to vote?

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1327338786469146625

Connecticut is possible since Blumenthal isn't really that stellar. Still, it's a long shot and I'm not sure who they'd pick.

Duckworth isn't going anywhere.

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/stevennelson10/status/1327339133623296001

A true Chad.

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/alexanderao/status/1327051626872500224

Interesting... heavily Dominican as well as to a somewhat lesser extent Puerto Rican.

Here's a brief profile of Lawrence (As well as a few other factory towns in Mass).

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/06/three-ma-towns-owe-their-very-survival-to-people-they-once-shunned/432132/

Here's an academic abstract of a study on Dominican and Puerto Rican gangs in Lawrence:

https://grantome.com/grant/NIH/R24-DA012203-02-1

Here's another survey of Dominican and Puerto Rican populations in Lawrence from UMass-Boston:

https://scholarworks.umb.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1041&context=gaston_pubs

Gonna compare this to income maps when I get home but I'd bet good money the poorer areas swung more Trump.