GOP Dark Horses that can come out of nowhere, and win big

[AuH2O]

Um Allen isn't a "darkhorse," he's pretty heavily favored actually.

[AuH2O]

Nussle has no national potential.

Like philip says, polls are meaningless at this point even for identifying leaders.

It's fairly normal for politicians to want to be President... it is the most powerful political office in the world. So it's not really news when a politician aspires to the White House.

The best long-term effort has to go to Ralph Reed. It takes someone pretty smart to build the electorate they are going to need over 20 years later, not to mention picking the right state to match up the feasibility and timing of his ascent.

It's actually harder than it appears on the surface, because of the apparent "half-life" principle in politics, which is to say most people elected President are rapid risers.

Reed, who has a Ph.D. in history from Emory, recognized the growing value of evangelicals to the GOP, helped solidfy that bloc and incorporate it smoothly into the GOP apparatus.

The game theory can never be perfect because of the variables involved (you have to belong to one of two parties, each of which have internal dynamics). Becoming Governor is always smart, possibly even worth risking a loss as opposed to running for Senate.

I thus question the judgement of JD Hayworth for dropping out of the Governor's race in Arizona. He's playing it safe, which if you want to be President, isn't smart. So maybe he's not interested.