The 2012 Primary/Caucus Nomination System (user search)
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Author Topic: The 2012 Primary/Caucus Nomination System  (Read 5694 times)
jimrtex
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Posts: 11,817
Marshall Islands


« on: March 12, 2008, 12:27:47 AM »

Base allocation (relative share of delegates):

(Share_Electoral_Vote + Share_Popular_Vote)/2

Note that base allocation of all States sums to 1.0.   Calculations should be carried out to 6 decimal places.

Bonuses for party success:

5% bonus for carrying state in presidential election.
5% bonus for governor.
2.5% for each senator.
5% x share of  congressmen from state.
2.5% for control of each legislative house.

Adjustments for process:

Open Primary: Multiply x 1.00
Semi-Closed Primary: Multiply x 0.95
Closed Primary: Multiply x 0.90
Election Precinct Level Caucus: Multiply x 0.70
Medium Level Caucus: Multiply x 0.60
High Level Caucus: Multiply x 0.50

Note: Allocation of national delegates to be directly based on first-level results (no internal weighting or cascading).  Participants at caucuses will express preferences at sign-in.  These votes will be used for allocation of national delegates.  Caucuses must permit mail-in participation by UOCAVA voters and voters who might be unable to participate in in-person caucusing (elderly, disabled, absent on caucus day, confined to jail, work conflict, etc.)

Level of caucus based on average number of registered voters per caucus site.

States choose one of the following windows:

1. March 6-17
2. March 20-March 31
3. April 3-April 21 (extra week due to Easter on April Cool
4. April 24-May 5
5. May 8-May 19
6. May 22-June 2
7. June 5-June 16

These windows begin on a Tuesday and end on a Saturday.  Bonus for short-term delay:

Until 1st Saturday: 10%
Until 2nd Tuesday: 5%
Until 2nd Saturday: 15%

Normalize values so that they sum to one.  These numbers would represent the share of delegates for a State prior to adjustments for where the State falls within the overall calendar.

Calendar adjustments:

The target share of delegates to be chosen in each window are: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7/28 of the overall share of the delegates.  That is, 7/28 of delegates are to be chosen in the June window, and 1/28 in the first March window.  

Any windows that were not chosen by any States are removed.  For example if the 5th window had no primaries or caucuses, the relative targets for the remaining windows would be 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, an 7/23 of the overall share of the delegates.

These targets are adjusted as follows:

Beginning with the last window, compare the unadjusted share with the target share.  If the unadjusted share is greater than the target share, increase the target share.  For example, if States entitled to 40% of the delegates choose the June window, then the target is increased to 40%.  The targets for the earlier windows is reduced to compensate (eg the targets for the first 6 windows would be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/21 of 60%.  This adjustment avoids the possibility of States being penalized for choosing a later window.

If the target is greater than 3 times the raw share of the States selecting the window, the target is reduced to 2 times the raw share.  The targets for earlier windows are increased to compensate.  This adjustment avoids rewarding States too much for picking a particular window.

We next compute a scale factor for each window, which is simply the target share divided by the unadjusted share.  The scale factors should increase monontonically for later windows.  There should never be a greater reward for picking an earlier window over a later one.

Beginning with the last window, we check for cases where an earlier window has a greater scale factor.  We then reduce the scale factor for the earlier window, while increasing the scale factors for the later windows, such that the scale factor for the earlier window is equal to the scale factor for the next later window, and the sum of the targets for all windows remains the same.

We compute the number of national convention votes for each State by multiplying the raw share times the scale factor for its windows times the desired total number of delegates at the convention (eg 3000).  Fractions are retained.  While there won't be fractional delegates, each delegate will have a fractional vote.

When the primary or caucus is held, all candidates who receive more than 5% of the vote will receive their pro rata share of the State's national convention votes.  The number of actual delegates will be the next whole number, each who will exercise an equal share of a candidate's votes.  For example, if a candidate were entitled to 2.70 national convention votes from a State, then there would be 3 delegates, each who exercised 0.90 votes.
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