Alaska does not attribute absentee ballots to election precincts, therefore the election results by precinct will skew Republican.
In HD-33, the district that includes Haines, Absentee ballots were 77.7% Biden; while election day results were 49.8% for Biden. There were 1.76 times as many absentee ballots as election day ballot.
I get your point, but at some point we must rely on official data if we want to compile statistics.
Moreover, I don't understand your calculation. The share of voters (inhabitants) living in the HD-33 part of Juneau compared to all voters living in HD 33 must be
(31,974 - 710,249 / 40) / (710,249 / 40).
Correct? (As I understand, HD 34 completely consists of a major chunk of Juneau only.)
In HD-33 there are 11,995 registered voters in Juneau (including Douglas). There are 2422 in Haines, 1246 in Skagway, 561 in Gustavus, and 82 in Klukwan.
So the 16306 registered voters in HD-33 are distributed:
Juneau: 73.6%.
Haines: 14.9%
Skagway: 7.6%
Gustavus: 3.4%
Klukwan: 0.5%
Election Day Votes:
Juneau: 1722 (58.1%) 14.4% of registered.
Haines: 763 (25.8%) 31.5% of registered.
Skagway: 249 (8.4%) 20.0% of registered.
Gustavus: 191 (6.4%) 34.0% of registered.
Klukwan: 37 (1.2%) 45.1% of registered.
But you also have to consider early voting. Early voting is only available in regional elections offices. If you live in Haines, you will early vote only if you had other business in Juneau or were flying out, and perhaps took a flight from Haines to Juneau ($381 round trip, via 8-passenger Cessna 207).
So we add in all Early Voting to Juneau only.
In Person Votes:
Juneau: 4342 (77.8%) 36.0% of registered.
Haines: 763 (13.7%) 31.5% of registered.
Skagway: 249 (4.5%) 20.0% of registered.
Gustavus 191 (3.4%) 34.0% of registered.
Klukwan 37 (0.7%) 45.1% of registered.
This distribution pretty much matches registration. Smaller isolated villages in other parts of Alaska tended to have higher shares of in-person voting. I suspect that it is harder to deal with mail-in ballots than it is simply to go to the polling place on election with a few dozen others on election day, and there is less risk of COVID exposure. This would explain Klukwan.
In Person Votes:
Juneau: Biden 68%:Trump 32%
Juneau (Election Day): Biden 53%:Trump 41%
Juneau (Early Voting): Biden 73%:Trump 24%
Gustavus: Biden 55%:Trump 39%
Skagway: Biden 53%:Trump 37%
Haines: Biden 40%:Trump 55%
Klukwan: Biden 76%:Trump 14%
District In Person Votes:
5600 votes: Biden 60%:Trump 34%
District Election Day:
2968 votes: Biden 50%:Trump 44%
District Absentee:
5237 votes: Biden 77%:Trump 19%
The number of absentee votes is about the same as the number of in-person votes, but 16% more Biden-leaning.
But the in-person votes includes early voting in Juneau. This will cannibalize both absentee voting and election day voting. If you go to the elections office in Juneau to get an absentee ballot, you might be inclined to just go ahead and vote. Juneau is not a very big city and the Juneau part of HD-34 is downtown. It is not an outrageous trip to early vote. But it will also cut into the election day vote in Juneau. If you are going to a polling place, it doesn't matter much if you do it a week or two early.
SO we conclude that there at least as many absentee votes in Haines as there election day votes, and that they were more favorable for Biden than the election day votes were for Trump.
Conclusion: Biden carried the total vote in Haines.
