New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1227258274854195200?s=20

Smdh... She should've flipped a coin instead....

I wonder if she did the next line.

[jimrtex]

So, only 3 candidates will get delegates ?

Assuming the 2 CD results are similar to the overall results

It looks like 9:9:6 at this point.

It could go to 10:8:6 is Sanders gets a favorable result in one of the CD's, but they are quite similar.

[jimrtex]

If Klobuchar nips Buttigieg in one of the CD's it could give the overall delegate win to Sanders.

The two CD's will each give 3 delegates to first and second, two to third.
Pledged LEO's will divide 1 each for top 3.
The AL will go 2 delegates to first and second, one to third.

If Buttgieg or Klobuchar finish second in both CD's, and therefore second state wide, it will be

Sanders 9
Second 9
Third 6

If Buttigieg and Klobuchar split the CD's, the statewide second will

Sanders 9
Second statewide 8
Third statewide 7

I'm assuming that Sanders will finish 1st in both CD's.

[jimrtex]

Reiterating my question about whether there is somewhere where we can see the results from the CDs ?

All candidates appear to be within 1% of their standing.

	Sanders	Buttigieg	Klobuchar	Warren	Biden
NH-1	26.3%	23.0%	19.6%	9.2%	9.4%
NH-2	27.3%	23.3%	20.0%	10.4%	7.5%
NH-AL	26.7%	23.1%	19.8%	9.7%	8.7%

[jimrtex]

	Sanders	Buttigieg	Klobuchar	Warren	Biden
NH-1	25.6%	23.8%	20.4%	8.9%	9.0%
NH-2	26.4%	24.1%	19.5%	10.1%	7.9%
NH-AL	25.9%	24.0%	20.0%	9.4%	8.6%

This is based on DDHQ with 76% in.

[jimrtex]

 I had messed up and put Nashua in NH-1. This corrects that. The CD's are almost identical. NH might not even have to reapportion in 2021.

	Sanders	Buttigieg	Klobuchar	Warren	Biden
NH-1	25.5%	24.2%	20.4%	8.9%	8.8%
NH-2	26.1%	24.2%	19.3%	9.9%	8.6%
NH-AL	25.8%	24.2%	19.9%	9.4%	8.7%

[jimrtex]

	Sanders	Buttigieg	Klobuchar	Warren	Biden
NH-1	25.6%	24.2%	20.2%	8.9%	8.8%
NH-2	26.2%	24.2%	19.4%	9.6%	8.6%
NH-AL	25.9%	24.2%	19.8%	9.3%	8.7%

This is with 90% on DDHQ. CNN has the margin down to 1.5% statewide, which should make the margin in NH-1 just over 1%.

Note that a reversal of the Top 2 would make no difference in the delegate count. The top candidate would need 40% more than the second candidate (or around 10% of the total vote to get a 4-2-2 split in a CD.

[jimrtex]

Say it ain't so, Joe

'First In The Nation' Voting Site Under Scrutiny For Alleged Election Law Violations

The New Hampshire SOS results had results for Hale's Location (which is missing from both the CNN and DDHQ results) and I was trying to see if another township had initiated midnight bowling voting, when I came across this article from 2019.

*Joe in the headline is of course Shoeless Joe Jackson of the Black Sox scandal, and not Joe Biden who is (was?) running for president (I didn't want anyone to be calling me a lying dog-faced pony soldier)

[jimrtex]

These are based on SOS results. CNN results are about the same, some less, some more, likely due to data entry errors. DDHQ has additional numbers, with overage varying somewhat by ease of spelling:

Bennet 12.50% more
Patrick 4.69%
Biden 1.18%
Yang 1.12%
Sanders 1/01%
Steyer 0.86%
Warren 0.65%
Klobuchar 0.58%
Gabbard 0.47%
Buttigieg 0.39%

Maybe election officials don't count "Amy" or "ButtPete" or "Tulsi" as valid write-ins.

There were 34 candidates on the ballot, in alphabetical order by last name, but with ballot rotation, and with first name first making it harder to scan for a particular candidate. For example, in Acwrworth the ballot began with:

Sam Sloan Bronx, New York
Tom Steyer San Francisco, California
David John Thistle The Woodlands, Texas
Thomas James Torgesen Saratoga, New York
Elizabeth Warren Cambridge, Massachusetts
Robby Wells Waynesboro, Georgia
Marianne Williamson Des Moines, Iowa
Andrew Yang New York, New York
Michael Bennet Denver, Colorado
Joseph R. Biden Wilmington, Del

Steve Burke, the best-placed no-name may have benefited from being before Buttigieg on most ballots.

"Scattering" is the same as write-in. A large share will be for Trump, who will finish ahead of Patrick and Bennet.

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Sanders	76350	25.60%
Buttigieg	72443	24.29%
Klobuchar	58773	19.70%
Warren	27427	9.19%
Biden	24911	8.35%
Steyer	10694	3.58%
Gabbard	9745	3.27%
Yang	8312	2.79%
Patrick	1258	0.42%
Bennet	984	0.33%
Sestak	190	0.06%
Booker	156	0.05%
Harris	128	0.04%
Williamson	99	0.03%
Burke	86	0.03%
Castro	83	0.03%
Delaney	83	0.03%
Koos	72	0.02%
Bullock	64	0.02%
Ellinger	57	0.02%
Thistle	53	0.02%
Kraus	52	0.02%
Wells	45	0.02%
Hewes	42	0.01%
Sloan	34	0.01%
Boyd	33	0.01%
Gleiberman	31	0.01%
Greenstein	31	0.01%
Torgesen	30	0.01%
Krichevsky	23	0.01%
Dunlap	12	0.00%
De La Fuente	11	0.00%
Moroz	8	0.00%
Scatter	5980	2.00%

[jimrtex]

This is an update which includes tabulated write-ins. The NHSOS tabulates write-ins in the Democratic primary for candidates on the Republican ballot, plus others. The lack of indication for Bloomberg and Romney simply indicates they were not on either ballot. This has a tad more votes for Democratic candidates. This may be late-arriving ballots, or perhaps provisionals.

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Sanders	76355	25.58%
Buttigieg	72445	24.27%
Klobuchar	58774	19.69%
Warren	27428	9.19%
Biden	24911	8.34%
Steyer	10694	3.58%
Gabbard	9745	3.26%
Yang	8312	2.78%
Bloomberg, x	4777	1.60%
Patrick	1266	0.42%
Trump, r	1219	0.41%
Bennet	984	0.33%
Sestak	190	0.06%
Scatter	161	0.05%
Booker	156	0.05%
Harris	129	0.04%
Williamson	99	0.03%
Burke	86	0.03%
Castro	83	0.03%
Delaney	83	0.03%
Koos	72	0.02%
Bullock	64	0.02%
Ellinger	57	0.02%
Thistle	53	0.02%
Kraus	52	0.02%
Wells	45	0.02%
Hewes	43	0.01%
Sloan	34	0.01%
Boyd	33	0.01%
Greenstein	31	0.01%
Gleiberman	30	0.01%
Torgesen	30	0.01%
Krichevsky	23	0.01%
Weld, r	16	0.01%
Dunlap	12	0.00%
De La Fuente	11	0.00%
Moroz	8	0.00%
Romney, x	7	0.00%
Kraft, r	2	0.00%
Matern, r	2	0.00%
Merrill, r	1	0.00%

[jimrtex]

Interactive map of the NH Republican Primary results, including heatmaps of vote cast for Democrats on the Republican ballot under the NH Minor/WI tab in the Menu, as of last night.

Are write-ins generally stronger along the Connecticut River?

[jimrtex]

These are based on SOS numbers. Buttigieg did get it to within 1% in NH-1.

	NH-1	NH-2	Total
Sanders	25.78%	26.45%	26.12%
Buttigieg	24.82%	24.75%	24.78%
Klobuchar	20.34%	19.87%	20.10%
Warren	9.04%	9.72%	9.38%
Biden	8.84%	8.21%	8.52%
Steyer	3.82%	3.50%	3.66%
Gabbard	3.32%	3.35%	3.33%
Yang	2.79%	2.90%	2.84%