Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?)

[jimrtex]

Apparently Kentucky switched from a primary to a caucus this year. Why the hell would anyone do that?

Kentucky law does not permit a candidate to appear on the ballot for two offices. The Kentucky presidential preference primary in May is coincident with the state primary. Rand Paul could not be on both the presidential and senate primary ballot.

There was an effort to change the law, but the Democrats had control of one house and the governor, and blocked the bill. So Paul talked Republicans in to using a caucus - and agreed to pay for it.

Political parties are private organizations, and a state can't tell them how to choose who goes to their national convention, or how they choose their presidential candidates. On the other hand, political parties can't tell a state how to conduct their elections.

[jimrtex]

i'm not at all surprised, it's not that far of a leap from sociopath paul lepage to actual zodiac killer ted cruz.

In all fairness LePage won with a split moderate/liberal vote

LePage endorsed Trump.

Plus or Minus?

[jimrtex]

Kasich came in second in Riley County, KS; Trump fourth.

New York City values don't do well in Manhattan!

[jimrtex]

Nah. The establishment would knee cap Cruz in a brokered convention if they had the chance.

The delegates to the convention will be making the decision. The Cruz delegates will support Cruz.

The delegates pledged to Trump will be a variety of Trump supporters, establishment supporters, and Cruz supporters.

For example, in Texas, the national delegates will be chosen by the state convention. The selection process began at precinct conventions on election night. How many Trump supporters showed up for those, particularly Democrat cross-over voters. They have to vote for Trump on the first ballot, but will be able to vote for Cruz on rules matters, platform matters, and for Cruz after the first ballot. They can even participate in floor demonstrations for Cruz.

Will the Trump delegates switch to John Boehner, and how many ballots would it take for him to get 50%.

[jimrtex]

The stats people working behind the scenes on election nights do know what they're doing, and it's validated by the fact that their calls are virtually never wrong, even when people debate on here that this that or the other call may be premature.

If you use a MOE based on a 95% probability, you will be wrong 5% of the time as far as the margin of victory. But they never announce that "We now project that Smith will win by 17.2% plus or minus 3.4%.", so we don't know when the final result ends up 13.5% or 21.0% that they actually made an erroneous projection, other than the winner.

The people who pay the stats people are quite unlikely to demand that they be 99.999% sure. Instead they are going to want an answer sooner than later.

The reason that they seem to be virtually never wrong is that I can call Rhode Island for the Democratic candidate 8 months before the election, with no exit polling, no results, and not even knowing who the candidates will be.

[jimrtex]

The turnout game...

Kansas:

Republicans: 73,116 (65.2%)
Democrats: 39,043 (34.8%)

Louisiana:

Democrats: 311,613 (50.9%)
Republicans: 301,169 (49.1%)

LA = swing state?

Closed primary. Its actually pretty impressive for Republicans considering Democrats have a massive advantage with registration still to this day.

Republican turnout was 36.3%, Democratic turnout was 23.3%.