BC provincial election

[jimrtex]

I voted for Ida Chong (Liberal) and I was so undecided on the STV proposition that I literally flipped a coin over it.  I ended up voting no.

Aren't you supposed to put a 1 or 2 next to the Yes and No indicating your first and second preference?

[jimrtex]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

How large are the constituencies under STV going to be?

5 to 7 in urban areas, 2 to 4 in rural areas.  BC has about a dozen very large single member ridings, many that are on the low-side as far as population.  Many persons had suggested that AV (single member STV) be used for these rural seats, or that the number of seats be kept low so as to accomodate the moral rural areas.

[http://www.elections.bc.ca/map/maps.htm] Maps of BC Ridings (Wall Map is 6M PDF file) [/url]

The whole process was rather interesting.  The Liberal government, which had a 77-2 majority, created a Citizens' Assembly which was randomly selected from the voters roll (the selection process was stratified by age, sex, and geography).  From an initial mailout to 23,000 voters, 160 were eventually selected as members.

They then spent most of last year studying various options, holding 50 hearings around the province and making a decision as to which system should be offered to the voters (they were required to decide whether or not a new voting system should be presented to the voters; and if so, what should that system be).

Citizens' Assembly

[jimrtex]

CBC stopped counting the results 40 minutes ago: Liberals 45 (and leading in one other) and the NDP 33. Better than the pundits predicted.

As for the referendum, it looks like my prediction will come true (I guessed 55%-45%) Ha! This was based on two vague polls.

The referendum result was extremely uniform, with a range of about 51% to 61%, and carrying all 35 ridings that have been counted on an overall 56%.   I think it highly unlikely to get tom 60%, when ony 4 of 35 ridings have done so so far.

The ridings where the referendum was extremely close, have big Liberal pluralities, in some cases upward of 20%.  The bigger wins on the referendum (ariound 60%) appear to be more mixed, with about 1/2 NDP wins, and the other half Liberal with a more modest plurality.

I would have guessed that Liberal voters might be more sympathetic based on their having initiated the whole process.

[jimrtex]

I knew winning the riding quota would be easy, but getting the 60% was the hard part. I read that only one riding have a majority against. Pretty good. Too bad it didnt pass.

2 of 69 that are counted, but both were at 49+%.   The two were in the Kamloops area.  The less-populated inland areas, where voters probably have a greater sense of have their own representative were supporting it, though a bit below the province-wide average.   In some cases the single member ridings are kind of odd in order to balance populations, so where it looks like three huge regular shaped areas, it is really a small city split into 2 or 3 parts, which then extend a 100 miles into almost uninhabited wilderness.

There was a very large variation of support within Vancouver, which I would like to understand.   I would think that voters there might tend to consider all the MLAs of their party as being their representative.

Support on the referendum was extremely uniform, much more so than the party election.   Support in NDP areas was a bit higher, but more to suggest that NDP voters were 70% in favor, while Liberal voters were around 50%.    Or there could be other factors at work as well.  NDP voters as a whole will have keen understanding of how a party with a large share of the popular vote can end up with few (2 of 79 seats at the previous election), but Liberals in stronger NDP areas might also share in that.  If you can only carry a riding when your party has a 77 to 2 majority, you might want something different than FPTP.

[jimrtex]

Strange why Kamloops was against it. Maybe they like being the Bellwether ridings? Odd, I would have figured the Peace River area would have been against it.  The results, I must say are facinating. I can't quite seem to put much analysis into it.

I wonder if any prototype maps of the multi-seat ridings had been published.  In the Peace River area, they might have shown a 2-seat Peace River riding.  Or in the Prince Georges area 3-seat district.  While the districts are large, people are accustomed to such sized districts (federal ridings?).

But perhaps someone had suggested a 5-seat Middle Fraser district, and perhaps the people in Kamloops didn't really accept that idea.  Or it could be some other regional phenomena.  Most of the other ridings in the area were lightest green.   Other than the size of the ridings, the regional concentrations is similar to that in the Vancouver area, where you have the high support northern area, the low support area to the south. and the moderate support area in the east.

What is the socio-economic nature of those areas in Vancouver?

You must be logged in to read this quote.