NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Wonkish1]

PVI is only a measurement of the Presidential numbers over two elections.

I'm aware of this. One decent answer was given above, but I'll rephrase the question. Why do you think that such a strong Democrat district would be voting as close to the middle as it is in the last few elections?

What is happening on the ground?

Is everybody in agreement that its an identity thing. Its expected to be a registered Dem in that area, but only after that you vote what makes sense to you? Leading to the large disparity?

Look at the trend lines, the district got less Democratic, from D+14 to just D+5. It's always had more conservative Democrats on average, but a shift has occurred, much like many districts in the South have had.

But this district isn't anything like a southern district populated with conservative Dems 20 YEARS AGO! Nor is it like Appalachia districts, the Iron Range, or Blue Collar districts in the Rust Belt.

This district shares a lot in common economically with economically well off close suburbs that have been trending Dem up until 2010 except that it has a Jewish population that agrees with right on some social and foreign policy issues.

But I ask you this. The Jewish vote has historically been 75-25 Dem if not worse, do you really think that trend is going to continue after this election? What is all that different between Jewish voters in this district and Jewish voters in Florida?

[Wonkish1]

pleased to see America continue a slow but sure push in a conservative direction.

Can we stop with this "America is moving in X direction" crap, please?  The pendulum didn't swing the Democrats' way this time over Israel, and because we had an uncharismatic candidate.  One race does not set what's going to happen for the entire country.

Well, maybe. But these elections obviously foreshadow things. Take Scott Brown, for example.

I know that, but it's like people who said Obama's victory pushed us in a left direction, as if that would be a permanent trend for the country.  Both sides eventually find themselves very disappointed after saying things like that.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that you were probably one of those people that said that or at least believed it for a while.

[Wonkish1]

See that is where your way off. This district is extremely different than a Southern district. Most Southern districts trended way to the right in the 90s. They are protestant Christian not orthodox Jewish with a handful of Catholic. They are surrounded by other conservatives and this district is surrounded by liberals. They are in low cost of living towns and this district is in a very expensive suburb of one of the largest cities in the world.

Historically, Dem politician after politician has been pretty crappy towards Israel yet the Jewish voters don't ditch. Historically Dem politician after politician have taken very socially liberal positions and yet Jewish voters don't ditch.

What made this the election where all of sudden those issues were the be all and end all when before Jews had an economy where they had the luxury to be exclusively focused on social issues. Now they have a bad economy and all of sudden gay marriage and Israel are extremely important? Something doesn't compute.

The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and
B) Is the Jewish vote going to start coming close to even in at least the upcoming election?

Those are real questions and given the fact that elections like these are the only glimpses we are going to get into these questions before 12 then they are important in understanding the electorate that is shaping here.

[Wonkish1]

But this district isn't anything like a southern district populated with conservative Dems 20 YEARS AGO! Nor is it like Appalachia districts, the Iron Range, or Blue Collar districts in the Rust Belt.

This district shares a lot in common economically with economically well off close suburbs that have been trending Dem up until 2010 except that it has a Jewish population that agrees with right on some social and foreign policy issues.

But I ask you this. The Jewish vote has historically been 75-25 Dem if not worse, do you really think that trend is going to continue after this election? What is all that different between Jewish voters in this district and Jewish voters in Florida?

In being socially conservative, it is like some southern districts, which hinged on those issues.

Mainly Orthodox Jews are heavily present in the district, Jewish voters in Florida are not largely Orthodox and lean more liberal overall.

By the way do you have any data to show that the very elderly Jewish population in Florida is not very Orthodox and the younger Jewish population in NYC is?

Also keep in mind that Orthodox Jewish stronghold is in Brooklyn, not in Queens. Care to explain what happened with those non Orthodox Jews in east Queens?

[Wonkish1]

The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and

Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

And Mark Critz did really well with working class whites a few months before the 2010 midterms.

Frankly I don't know what to say anymore. Despite Obama's unpopularity Democrats are clearly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the general congressional ballot, so all those doom-and-gloom predictions seem to me greatly exaggerated.
It's a very volatile period and whoever makes predictions risks to look like a fool a couple of months down the road.

Clearly you were just talking out of your a$$ here because the Dems are getting crushed in the generic congressional ballot for a very long time.

[Wonkish1]

Clearly you were just talking out of your a$$ here because the Dems are getting crushed in the generic congressional ballot for a very long time.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/boehner-as-unpopular-as-pelosi.html

I think most national pundits continue to be missing the boat on how possible it is that Democrats will retake control of the House next year. We find Democrats with a 7 point lead on the generic Congressional ballot this week at 47-40. After getting demolished with independent voters last year, they now hold a slight 39-36 advantage with them. And in another contrast to 2010 Democratic voters are actually slightly more unified than Republicans, with 83% committed to supporting the party's Congressional candidates compared to 80% in line with theirs.


Now, take our MENSA resident with you and go take YOUR heads out of each other's ass.
Morons.

So your response is to post an admitted Democrat polling outfit and then say some bull crap about how Dems could take the house. Do you even have a clue how much extremely harder that is for 2012 than at any point in the last 2 decades? Some of the most important news coming out of Redistricting is PVI's of the median districts. Do you realize that you would have trudge through quite a few of R +5 districts before you could take it back?

Listen to your own best analyst. According to Charlie Cook "extremely unlikely" that Dems could take the house in 12. And they are "very challenged" in ever taking the house this decade.

The house is gone for you, finished, and your not getting it back anytime soon.

[Wonkish1]

I think that says more about you than this thread.

[Wonkish1]

NY Jew, according to the newspaper you just cited Marriage likely wasn't a huge decider in this race. Only 29% said that it was very important and that would appear to be the same % of traditionally Republican voting Orthodox Jews and devout Catholics that are in this district.

Also, isn't "Jewry" a term that shouldn't be used? I saw that at the top and the only couple of times I've seen that were word it was used in kind of a derogatory way.

[Wonkish1]

Also, isn't "Jewry" a term that shouldn't be used? I saw that at the top and the only couple of times I've seen that were word it was used in kind of a derogatory way.

http://tinyurl.com/3zuawa4

Way to post one of those that doesn't lead to the question being answered. Google seems to think I should be searching for "jewelry"