CNN Poll of LV's (post-DNC) Obama: 52 % Romney: 46 %

[MorningInAmerica]

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/10/rel10a.pdf

Obama: 52% (+4)
Romney: 46% (-2)

No link yet. Was tied 48-48% in last poll. Romney is down in nearly every metric.

Count this as one of the polls where Johnson pulls from Romney:

Obama: 51%
Romney: 43%
Johnson: 3%

Obama's favorability rating is 57%, while Romney's is at 48%.

Poll Analyst for The Guardian suggests party ID, by looking at Indy vote and base vote, is 44%D/34%R/22%I (D+10).

[MorningInAmerica]

Is this the first national poll showing Obama above 50% among LVs?

I'm not sure, but that sounds right.

[MorningInAmerica]

Romney leading with independents by 14. Weird.

For the record: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/10/rel10a.pdf

Romney leads by 14 in a poll where he trails by 6 overall? If they're both carrying roughly similar portions of their base, then this was a fairly Democratic sample. Unfortuantely, I don't see where they identify their sample in the pdf.

Also, note that CNN did something really funky with their methodology. Romney actually IMPROVED among registered voters from the last poll (the same poll that had him and Obama TIED.) He's at 53-45 w/ RV's this week, last week trailed 52-43% w/ RVs.

EDITED to say I was looking at the wrong week for my RV comparison (two weeks ago). Last week Obama led by 7 w/ RV's so he had a big improvement with LV's, a smaller improvement with RVs

[MorningInAmerica]

Harry Enten, poll analyst for The Guardian in the UK, says on twitter the poll sample of that CNN poll appears to be  44/34/22, or D+10. Now I know Dems are optimistic, but D+10?  Romney leads 54-40 w/ Indies, 96/2 w/ GOP, and Obama's at 97/3 w/ Dems. +6 wouldn't be possible otherwise.

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[MorningInAmerica]

If this poll were an outlier it would be easy to "dismiss and move on" but it is consistent with the trackers. 

By the end of the week I suspect there will be new polls from the other usual big outfits and we can be more confident but at this point the debate is down to "how big is Obama's lead/bounce?" not "is Obama ahead?"

There's no question Obama's leading. Did I miss someone suggesting he wasn't?