Shira
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,858
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« on: August 14, 2004, 02:52:13 AM » |
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Two numbers which could be very helpful when you try to predict a 2004 outcome in a given state, is the state percentage of white Protestants in 2004 vs. 2000
Assume for example, that in one state Gore in 2000 got 3% above his national number and the percentage of white Protestants in that state was 64%. Now, assume that the percentage of white Protestants dropped by 2% to 62%. In this case it is guaranteed that Kerry in this state, will get a number which is higher than its national one by more than 3%.
Except for white Protestants, Bush will get less than Kerry among ALL other ethnical and religious groups and subgroups. In some (Blacks for example), Kerry will have a huge advantage and in others (Catholic for example) he will have a modest one.
Does someone know where can we get the 2000 and 2004 percentage of white Protestants population in each state?
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