Smash255
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Posts: 15,457
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« on: October 08, 2006, 03:26:07 AM » |
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Nassau county NY, took a hard Dem shift from 1988 to 2000, in 04 moved back towards the GOP (Kerry won by 5.6%) but much of that was due to the 9/11 impact. No question moved back left since then to where it was in 00, and probably has moved a bit more Dem than that. GOP still has a registration advantage, but that has dropped dramatically, and basicaally the inverse of the south. Republicans cross party lines much more often than Dems do, and Independents tend to vote Dem. A 50/50 election in 08 will likley produce similar results than 96 & 00 did when Clinton & gore won by slightly under 20 points, (maybe a little more Dem). Locally was once very GOP, now mostly Dem, Dem County Exec, Dem Leislature, Dem DA, Dem Comptroller. Spitzer & Clinton will both win in landslides (as wilL Cuomo) only district that is competitive on LI is the one with the lone republican in it (NY-3, my district). Count use to be fiscally conservative socially moderate, now is fiscally center-left, socially liberal.
Basically was the poster child for decades of the Republican suburb, now is the poster child of what the hard right turn in the GOP has done to the GOP in the suburbs (especially big city suburbs)
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