How "Safe" is your congressional district?

[Smash255]

NY-03

Generally has been a safe district for Peter King, however has been Democratic in Pres elections (went to Clinton twice, Gore by double digits in 2000, though Bush won it in 04, mainly due to 9/11.   Under the current lines Bush would have won the district by a oint or two in 92, and Gore by 9 in 2000.

King has won by solid margins, but has not faced a well funded or well known challenger.  Some of the pundits have called it safe (but most of those predictions were made before Mejias entered thr race and raised over $200k in 5 weeks.  Seat definatley leans towards King, but isn't safe this year, and won't be safe in 08 either (provided a strong Dem challenger emerges as well.  It has been safe for awhile, but now its going to lean in King's direction and he will have to fight.  Will lean Dem once King retires or is defeated.

[Smash255]

NY 18, Nita Lowey (D).

She's totally safe. I don't even know if she has a challenger. It's not that she's a great member of congress, it's just the D next to her name. She could easily lose should a well financed Democratic challenger come up in the primaries at any time. But that probably won't happen.

She was actually going to run for the Senate seat that Clinton got in '00, before Clinton decided to run. When Schumer or Clinton leaves the senate, she'll probably be up for the race again.

Dems have a 13 point rgistration addvantage, and considering how Independents break in suburban NY & how Reps are more likley to cross party lines than Dems its more of a 20 point adv.  In a yar where many of the NYC burbs swung back due to 9/11, Kerry won the district by more than 15 points.  Supposidly her 04 oppoenent Hoffman  is running again (Lowry won with a tad shy of 70% in 04), though I don't see him listed at open secrets for fundraising ehre Lowry has over $1 million in cash on hand.  Lowry is about as safe as Gary Ackerman and the NY City Democrats.

[Smash255]

NY-02 Steve Israel

I voted option one although that isn't entirely accurate; he's seemingly very popular and wins 65-35% every time but doesn't rack up 80% or anything near that.  The demographics of the district presently don't let him.

He might not get 80%, but this year I wouldn't be suprised if Israel racks up 70-75%

[Smash255]

King won by more than I thought he would last year, (11.6) but he spent pretty much everything he had, and his opponent Mejias got into the race late (end of May).

Without the large bank roll from previous elections, without the clout from being a Chairman, and with the changing dynamics I think King will have fights for some time to come.  Presidential years especially, as it will bring higher turnout and the district would pretty much be Dem in a Presidential year (Rudy being the possible exception) .  Suozzi would knock him out if he were to run, Rice would have a deent chance as well, Mejias could win i he were to run again (especially with more time to run. 

If he is still around by 2012 and the Dems gain the state Senate he is in quite a bit of trouble.  redistricting helped him last time, but with ultra safe Dem seats  on either side of him with Israel in NY-2 and McCarthy in NY-4 (McCarthy just won by over 30, Israel won by almost 50) the district would likely become quite a bit more Dem.  Better yet, put him in a district with McCarthy or Israel (more likely him than her if they go this route due to population & the relative proximity between their home areas) and he is toast.

Seat would be very likely to go Dem if King were to retire.

[Smash255]

Well if King decides to run for Senate in 2010, we could have a pretty tough fight provided both sides  The GOP has a fairly solid registration advantage in the district, however that advantage is shrinking.  After the 2000 census the district was gerrymandered a bit in the GOP's favor.  Expect the opposite to happen after the 2010 census.  New Census + Dem gains in the state Senate + surrounding districts being solidly Democratic = more Democratic 3rd.