the 2004 white vote

[Smash255]

Westchester County is generally not considered upstate.

Being a former New Yorker and Westchesterite, I know it depends on your perspective.  People in Manhattan consider Westchester upstate, while those upstate consider it part of the city.

While Westchester voted Republican, as it did for decades, New York was a swing state that leaned toward the Democrats, rather than a Democratic stronghold as it is now.

I think he also won NY north of the 42nd parallel. Gore may have won upstate sans Westchester.

Gore did perform marginally better in New York than Kerry, but there was not a big difference.  Geographically, Clinton in 1996 probably performed the best of recent elections, picking up a number of upstate counties.

The big shift in NY is that the NYC suburbs, which were always Republican strongholds, have gone over to the Democrats, and the city has become even more strongly Democratic.  Upstate still trends Republican.

Yes, the "closer" NYC Suburbs are Suffolk and Nassau counties on Long Island but those have also gone democratic recently ( Suffolk was 1% win for Kerry).  However, those counties as well as the fewer upstate pockets could be offset by the bulk of the state if it were not for the 5 boroughs of NYC that skew so heavily democratic.  Given the trends towards those counties shifting, means that this will be a democratic state until Republicans can do better with Minority votes 

Long Island had a 9/11 shift back, but it was primarily due to 9/11.  Suffolk went to Clinton by 14 in 96, Gore 11 in 2000, Nassau went to Clinton by 20 in 96 & Gore by 19 in 2000. Most likley 2008 will go back to double digits in both counties, with around 20 in Nassau.  9/11 also explains the white vote (which I believe went to Bush by 1-2% as NY (especially Nassau & Suffolk) were closer in 04 than 00 primarily due to the 9/11 impact.  Anyway the political changes in the suburbs primairly Westchester, Nassau & Suffolk pretty much dashed any hopes of winning NY, as Westchester, Nassau & Suffolk were all once strong GOP npw pretty much strong Dem (04 was the exception due to 9/11 on Long Island, it has shifted (Nassau especially) about as far as Westchester.  The local poltics in all 3 counties have also shifted to the Dems.

[Smash255]

Sure upstate NY would be a lean-Rep swing state without NYC & suburbs (exclude the exurbs as well if you want to have a realistic map), but it would have less than half of NY's EVs and be losing more fast, as nobody wants to move there.

Upstate NY has long been economically depressed.  I think one of the major problems there is that NY is an exceptionally high-tax state. 

NYC can get away with this to some extent, because it has certain advantages that make it worthwhile for people to pay those high taxes.

But upstate doesn't have those advantages, and with a high-tax structure that is effectively imposed by NYC, it finds it very difficult to attract business.  This is an example of my contention that NYC is a political drag on the state as a whole.

I don't think the case is that in upstate NY as it has to deal with problems in Industrial regions.  Upstate NY has much more in common economically & Industrywise  with Michagin & Ohio than NYC.  I think the problem in upstate NY is part of a greater problem with Industrial Based Economy that they are based off (similar to Michagin & Ohio) than it does NYC & taxes.  Ohio & Michagin have lower tax thresholds than NY, but its economy is in prett bad shape, mostly due to the type of work their economy is based on, which is similar to the overall upstate NY economy Industrial based economic structure.  I think that is what really impacts & hurts upstate NY more than taxes & NYC.  If the higher taxes & not being able to attract businesss because of it was a real part of the problem, than states such as Michagin & Ohio with the same type of economy, but quite a bit lower taxes than upstate NY would be in better shape than they are, but they aren't.  It has much more to do with the breakdown of Industry than taxes.