the 2004 white vote

[WalterMitty]

discuss.

[Alcon]

NY and CA surprise me a bit, I suppose, but otherwise nothing to phone home about.

I'm also surprised that (possibly excluding African-Americans) CNN's exit polling say that whites were Kerry's strongest ethnic group in Hawaii.

[True Democrat]

NY and CA surprise me a bit, I suppose, but otherwise nothing to phone home about.

I'm also surprised that (possibly excluding African-Americans) CNN's exit polling say that whites were Kerry's strongest ethnic group in Hawaii.

Polynesians in Hawaii are very, very pro-incumbent.  Look at Nixon in 1972.

[skybridge]

NY and CA surprise me a bit, I suppose, but otherwise nothing to phone home about.

I'm also surprised that (possibly excluding African-Americans) CNN's exit polling say that whites were Kerry's strongest ethnic group in Hawaii.

Polynesians in Hawaii are very, very pro-incumbent.  Look at Nixon in 1972.

That was over thirty years ago! Minnesota hasn't gone Republican once since then.

Anyway, this map (like all maps) proves that a Northeasterner should be in the White House again.

[minionofmidas]

NY and CA surprise me a bit, I suppose, but otherwise nothing to phone home about.

I'm also surprised that (possibly excluding African-Americans) CNN's exit polling say that whites were Kerry's strongest ethnic group in Hawaii.

Polynesians in Hawaii are very, very pro-incumbent.  Look at Nixon in 1972.

That was over thirty years ago!

It's still true. Pilipinos as well.

[True Democrat]

NY and CA surprise me a bit, I suppose, but otherwise nothing to phone home about.

I'm also surprised that (possibly excluding African-Americans) CNN's exit polling say that whites were Kerry's strongest ethnic group in Hawaii.

Polynesians in Hawaii are very, very pro-incumbent.  Look at Nixon in 1972.

That was over thirty years ago!

It's still true. Pilipinos as well.

Yeah, I didn't really believe until those Hawaii polls showing Bush ahead.  I mean, look at Presidential reelections or attemps using the partisan index:

1960: 0.73 D
1964: 34.94 D
1968: 21.8 D
1972: 1.8 R
1976: 0.5 D
1980: 11.6 D
1984: 6.9 D
1988: 17.2 D
1992: 5.8 D
1996: 16.8 D
2000: 17.8 D
2004: 11.2 D

In every case, the incumbent did better in Hawaii (taking into account the nation result) running for reelection than he did in his original election.

[Defarge]

If Clark, or Edwards, or even Gephardt had been nominated, how would these maps have differed?

[dazzleman]

If Clark, or Edwards, or even Gephardt had been nominated, how would these maps have differed?

They may have differed somewhat, but probably not substantially.  No Democrat has won the white vote in any election since LBJ in 1964.

[True Democrat]

If Clark, or Edwards, or even Gephardt had been nominated, how would these maps have differed?

They may have differed somewhat, but probably not substantially.  No Democrat has won the white vote in any election since LBJ in 1964.

And no Republican has one the white vote in D.C. since Nixon.

[dazzleman]

If Clark, or Edwards, or even Gephardt had been nominated, how would these maps have differed?

They may have differed somewhat, but probably not substantially.  No Democrat has won the white vote in any election since LBJ in 1964.

And no Republican has one the white vote in D.C. since Nixon.

There are no whites in DC other than UN types, so what difference does that make?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Clark, or Edwards, or even Gephardt had been nominated, how would these maps have differed?

They may have differed somewhat, but probably not substantially.  No Democrat has won the white vote in any election since LBJ in 1964.

And no Republican has one the white vote in D.C. since Nixon.

There are no whites in DC other than UN types, so what difference does that make?

very very false. I doubt 30% of DC are UN workers.

[minionofmidas]

If Clark, or Edwards, or even Gephardt had been nominated, how would these maps have differed?

They may have differed somewhat, but probably not substantially.  No Democrat has won the white vote in any election since LBJ in 1964.

And no Republican has one the white vote in D.C. since Nixon.

There are no whites in DC other than UN types, so what difference does that make?

very very false. I doubt 30% of DC are UN workers.

He said UN types, not UN workers. Whatever he meant by that, people who approve of the UN's existence maybe? In that case he's probably right.

[dazzleman]

If Clark, or Edwards, or even Gephardt had been nominated, how would these maps have differed?

They may have differed somewhat, but probably not substantially.  No Democrat has won the white vote in any election since LBJ in 1964.

And no Republican has one the white vote in D.C. since Nixon.

There are no whites in DC other than UN types, so what difference does that make?

very very false. I doubt 30% of DC are UN workers.

I was exaggerating; of course I know there are some whites in DC, but they are a relatively small minority.  They are far, far more liberal than average, and the demographic spectrum of these whites is very limited, far more so than in the typical city.

[Pollwatch99]

As a New Yorker, I'm not surprised at all.  I'm within 1.5 hrs of NYC, my county went 55-45 for Bush.  You take the 5 borough's of NYC out of the equation and NY is not a democratic stronghold

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

As a New Yorker, I'm not surprised at all.  I'm within 1.5 hrs of NYC, my county went 55-45 for Bush.  You take the 5 borough's of NYC out of the equation and NY is not a democratic stronghold

Kerry won upstate NY if it includes Westchester County.

[dazzleman]

Westchester County is generally not considered upstate.

Being a former New Yorker and Westchesterite, I know it depends on your perspective.  People in Manhattan consider Westchester upstate, while those upstate consider it part of the city.

While Westchester voted Republican, as it did for decades, New York was a swing state that leaned toward the Democrats, rather than a Democratic stronghold as it is now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Westchester County is generally not considered upstate.

Being a former New Yorker and Westchesterite, I know it depends on your perspective.  People in Manhattan consider Westchester upstate, while those upstate consider it part of the city.

While Westchester voted Republican, as it did for decades, New York was a swing state that leaned toward the Democrats, rather than a Democratic stronghold as it is now.

I think he also won NY north of the 42nd parallel. Gore may have won upstate sans Westchester.

[dazzleman]

Westchester County is generally not considered upstate.

Being a former New Yorker and Westchesterite, I know it depends on your perspective.  People in Manhattan consider Westchester upstate, while those upstate consider it part of the city.

While Westchester voted Republican, as it did for decades, New York was a swing state that leaned toward the Democrats, rather than a Democratic stronghold as it is now.

I think he also won NY north of the 42nd parallel. Gore may have won upstate sans Westchester.

Gore did perform marginally better in New York than Kerry, but there was not a big difference.  Geographically, Clinton in 1996 probably performed the best of recent elections, picking up a number of upstate counties.

The big shift in NY is that the NYC suburbs, which were always Republican strongholds, have gone over to the Democrats, and the city has become even more strongly Democratic.  Upstate still trends Republican.

[Pollwatch99]

Westchester County is generally not considered upstate.

Being a former New Yorker and Westchesterite, I know it depends on your perspective.  People in Manhattan consider Westchester upstate, while those upstate consider it part of the city.

While Westchester voted Republican, as it did for decades, New York was a swing state that leaned toward the Democrats, rather than a Democratic stronghold as it is now.

I think he also won NY north of the 42nd parallel. Gore may have won upstate sans Westchester.

Gore did perform marginally better in New York than Kerry, but there was not a big difference.  Geographically, Clinton in 1996 probably performed the best of recent elections, picking up a number of upstate counties.

The big shift in NY is that the NYC suburbs, which were always Republican strongholds, have gone over to the Democrats, and the city has become even more strongly Democratic.  Upstate still trends Republican.

Yes, the "closer" NYC Suburbs are Suffolk and Nassau counties on Long Island but those have also gone democratic recently ( Suffolk was 1% win for Kerry).  However, those counties as well as the fewer upstate pockets could be offset by the bulk of the state if it were not for the 5 boroughs of NYC that skew so heavily democratic.  Given the trends towards those counties shifting, means that this will be a democratic state until Republicans can do better with Minority votes 

[A18]

Welcome back, Pollwatch! Haven't seen you in eight months.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

As a New Yorker, I'm not surprised at all.  I'm within 1.5 hrs of NYC, my county went 55-45 for Bush.  You take the 5 borough's of NYC out of the equation and NY is not a democratic stronghold

I love when Republicans say "take the city out of my state and we're not so democratic anymore!".  Well duh! 

Look at people and not just land area for once. 

[Pollwatch99]

Welcome back, Pollwatch! Haven't seen you in eight months.

Thanks.  Time to turn my attention back to politics 

[dazzleman]

Yes, the "closer" NYC Suburbs are Suffolk and Nassau counties on Long Island but those have also gone democratic recently ( Suffolk was 1% win for Kerry).  However, those counties as well as the fewer upstate pockets could be offset by the bulk of the state if it were not for the 5 boroughs of NYC that skew so heavily democratic.  Given the trends towards those counties shifting, means that this will be a democratic state until Republicans can do better with Minority votes 

Either that or they have to do better in the suburbs to offset the city voters.  That is how it always worked in the past, and it was a much better system.  The state is going down the toilet as it is currently.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As a New Yorker, I'm not surprised at all.  I'm within 1.5 hrs of NYC, my county went 55-45 for Bush.  You take the 5 borough's of NYC out of the equation and NY is not a democratic stronghold

I love when Republicans say "take the city out of my state and we're not so democratic anymore!".  Well duh! 

yes, those type of statements are so stupid. Guess what? The city is sitll part of the state! Just because you don't want it there doesn't mean you can pretend it isn't.

You know, Alabama is a pretty damn Democratic state if you remove everything except Macon county.

[dazzleman]

New York City is a political albatross around the state's neck.  Most cities have dysfunctional and parasitic politics, and when they have too high a percentage of the state's population, they become a major drag politically.