Pataki's time had come and gone in NY. His last term was not very successful and suffered from the "around too long" syndrome. In reality, many believe that 9/11 saved him going into the '02 midterms. He wouldn't have broken 40% against Cuomo.
Oh come on thats what people said about astorino and he broke 40% just slightly.
The real problem for pataki would be his age. He's turning 70 next year. Also as i said he'll be disadvantaged by the loopsided demographics.
Also he was leading Cuomo and McCall even before 9/11.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_gubernatorial_election,_2002#General_election
Astronino took 40% because of how horrible turnout was. Pataki might have done slightly better, but it wouldn't have been that close either.