Abortion stance could haunt Casey in Senate bid

[Smash255]

Simply put-  If the name is not Casey, the Democrat best better be pro-choice to win.  Because it's Casey, I think he'll be fine.

Don't you understand that you need a Pro Life Dem to keep many of the Dems from voting for Santorum?

WHo are they going to vote for??  With Rendell at the top of the tiocket the Dems & Moderate Republicans in the Philly burbs will come out in strong numbers, they sure as hell aren't going to vote for Santorum

[Smash255]

Simply put-  If the name is not Casey, the Democrat best better be pro-choice to win.  Because it's Casey, I think he'll be fine.

Don't you understand that you need a Pro Life Dem to keep many of the Dems from voting for Santorum?

WHo are they going to vote for??  With Rendell at the top of the tiocket the Dems & Moderate Republicans in the Philly burbs will come out in strong numbers, they sure as hell aren't going to vote for Santorum

I don't think so.  While they might not agree with Casey's Pro-Life stances, I think quite a few would be willing to vote for Casey just to get Santorum the hell out of there the ABS vote (Anybody but Santorum) and that vote will be for  Casey since they know the 3rd party won't win.  Kind of similar to why Nader didn't do nearly as well in 2004 as he did in 2000 even in the states he was on the ballot in, because of the strong ABB vote Kerry picked up

I've said this a million times (I've come to the conclusion that you just have a hard time understanding): a third party candidate (a Libertarian, for example) could steal a good amount of votes.

[Smash255]

You overestimate the "ABS" vote.   30% of Pennsylvanians may have "ABS Syndrome". The rest DO NOT hate Santorum. If a Libertarian, Russ Diamond for example, ran, he would get a solid chunk of the vote. Betsy Summers got 2% with a libertarian candidate on the ballot. Diamond could get double that easily.

Granted, but where the pro-life views Casey has that some say could hurt him the most is in SE PA, that is probably where a rather large chunk of the ABS vote in PA is. 

[Smash255]

In PA the Republicans have 3 issues that count for them.

1) Abortion.  Casey's pro-life though so this takes this card out of play.

Hey i'll vote Casey over Santorum any day, any time, but I'm most worried about losing the support of Philly suburban pro-choice RINOs.  If you've seen the PA results for the 1980s, you'll see without the Philly burbs, we have less of a chance.

The Philly burbs tend to be socially liberal in general.  Casey's pro-life stance is his most conservtaive position, other than abortion he is prettymuch moderate on social issues, while Santorum isn't remotley close to moderate.  So while the SE pro-choice group may not like Casey's pro-life views the fact that he is not nearly as socially conservative as Santorum, they will vote for Casey.  You could put a pro-life Elmur Fudd up there against Santorum & Santorum would still get crushed in the Philly burbs