Not impossible but unlikely. Hard to see the demographic swing that moves VA to the right of MN. Would have to be an huge swing right among minorities while also losing ground with government workers.
Or some swing back with Midwest WWCs/ extremely juiced Twin City 'burbs turnout that launches MN further left as VA stagnates low doubles/high singles.
3 ways I could see it happening (though I don't think it's likely):
1. The election is a double digit Biden landslide. VA Dems would have a hard ceiling somewhere below 55% in a presidential race. MN Dems can easily get 60% in their blowouts.
If the election is close:
2. The blue collar job market continues to be notably stronger than the white collar job market. Perhaps the latter deteriorates further.
3. Abortion is close to the #1 issue in the election. VA pretty clearly has a stronger pro-life movement than MN. In fact, the entire South would likely be further right than recent history in this world and the entire North further left (give or take a couple of the 60%+ Dem very Catholic NE states).
