2023 elections predictions thread

[Skill and Chance]

KY: Beshear +2
MS: Reeves +8
OH: Abortion and marijuana both pass.
NJ: Democrats win both chambers.
VA: Republicans win both chambers.

I can see the GOP making it 50-50 in the house but the senate looks like a hump they can't overcome. Are you seeing something, I'm not.

D's are not doing as well in the Early Vote as they did in 2021:
https://twitter.com/MichaelPruser/status/1719316077719556504

Every year since COVID the early vote has gotten proportionally better for Republicans, particularly the in-person early vote.  That is, 2023 looks more R than 2022, which was more R than 2021, which was more R than 2020. 

However, Dems actually did ~5% better in 2022 than in 2021 and won the statewide PV by 3%, so this wasn't very predictive.  Most likely it just reflects decreasing party polarization of early vs. election day voting as we get further away from 2020.